The specification for US Export SBS to Mexico is as follows:

Description: Solid bleached sulfate board, US export 16-pt folding carton C1S, fob Laredo, Texas, $/tonne

Quality (basis weight/strength, brightness): Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated on one side.

Quantity: 500-10,000 tonnes/year

Location: United States, Laredo, TX, border crossing

Incoterm: Free on Board

Timing: Orders taken in the month to date for shipment in the current month or the following month.

Unit: Metric tonne

Payment terms: Assume normal and customary payment terms.

Publication: Monthly. Usually at 4.30pm Eastern time on the 3^rd Friday of the month. See full schedule online.

Notes: Price assessments reflect prices before discounts.

The specification for Mexico domestic coated recycled kraft/grey back paperboard is as follows:

Description: Recycled folding boxboard, coated kraft/grey back 320-325 g/m2 or 16-pt, delivered Mexico, peso/tonne

Quality (basis weight/strength, brightness): Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated on one side.

Quantity: 100-150 tonnes/year

Location: Mexico

Incoterm: Delivered Mexico City, Monterrey areas

Timing: Orders taken in the month to date for shipment in the current month or the following month.

Unit: Metric tonne

Payment terms: Assume normal and customary payment terms.

Publication: Monthly. On the third or fourth Tuesday of each month. See full schedule online.

Notes: Price assessments reflect the range in which the bulk of transactions took place. Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated in one side.

Jan. 17, Jan. 21 startup. The new prices start with the export SBS level reported in Fastmarkets’ PPI Pulp & Paper Week on Jan. 17, 2025, and the Mexico domestic kraft/grey back CRB level reported in Fastmarkets’ PPI Latin America on Jan. 21, 2025. The prices will run each month on a similar schedule. The prices also are reported online.

 If you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter, please contact nola.valente@fastmarkets.com for the US pricing, contact sandy.oliveira@fastmarkets.com for the Mexico domestic pricing, and or contact grudder@fastmarkets.com and mfaleiros@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: US export SBS pricing for Mexico and Mexico domestic pricing for CRB.”

To see all Fastmarkets RISI pricing methodology and specification documents see here.

To see all Fastmarkets RISI pricing notices please see here.

The post Launch of US and Mexico Boxboard Prices: Pricing Notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

This consultation, which closed December 19, 2024, seeks to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under indexation, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes all elements of our pricing process, our price specifications and publication frequency.

You can find the current methodology for LL and WBM here.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology/forest-products

The post Open consultation on methodology for Log Lines (LL) and Woodfiber and Biomass Markets (WBM) – Final decision appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The proposed specifications of the new price assessment are as follows:

Coated ivory board, 250g/m², Chinese exports to Southeast Asia FOB, $/tonne

Quantity: Minimum 100 tonnes

Location: China

Incoterm: FOB, from Chinese main ports to Southeast Asian main ports

Timing: Orders taken in the month to date for shipment in the current month or the following month

Unit: US dollar per metric tonne

Payment terms: Assume normal and customary payment terms.

Price type: Prices reflect open-market transactions. Transfers between affiliates and transactions whose price is indexed to a published price are excluded.

Publication: Monthly, in the last week of the month or first week of the following month

Assessment Type: Range price assessment

Notes: The price assessment reflects the range in which the bulk of transactions take place. Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. The product, with its bulkiness at around 1.3-1.4 cm³/g, has a multilayer fiber structure with bleached chemical pulp in the top and bottom layers and chemi-mechanical pulp in the middle. It usually features double or triple coating on the front and a thin layer of coating on the reverse side.

The price will be part of the Fastmarkets Paper Packaging package.

The consultation period for this proposed launch starts from December 18, 2024 and will end on January 31, 2025. The launch will take place, subject to market feedback, on February 28, 2025.

To provide feedback on this new launch or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price assessment, please contact Shawn Wang by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Shawn Wang, re: Coated ivory board, Chinese exports to Southeast Asia FOB.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Proposal to launch Coated ivory board, Chinese exports to Southeast Asia FOB assessment: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Southern Pine, which had been the laggard in recent weeks, took on a firmer tone. Meanwhile, Canadian and West Coast species languished amid moribund demand.

In Southern Pine, a growing number of mills extended order files into or even beyond scheduled holiday curtailments, and urgency to alleviate buildups eased as a result. Discounts moderated or dissipated altogether in many items that had previously declined for several weeks. Mills firmed quotes, especially in the middle widths, after clearing floor stock in early trading.

SYP was substituted more frequently for Spruce as buyers took advantage of the historically wide price spread between species that spanned triple digits in some items. Traders noted that the SYP’s unusually steep discount to Spruce surfaced weeks ago. However, the industry appears to take longer to react to such trends compared to past years.

Traders noted that companies are more careful to ensure the shift in species meets span ratings and other design specifications before jumping on the lower prices. Trading of Western S-P-F was thin as buyers lacked urgency and sensed further downside in the market.

Many cited the spread with Southern Pine as giving them pause. Producers lowered quotes and listened to counters but sold selectively. The spread in reported prices was immense.

A weakening lumber futures board further sapped energy from the physical market. The January contract dripped lower each day week to date. Total estimated volumes were relatively strong. In Coast markets, trading ground to a near-halt as a confluence of factors caused the market to stagnate.

Outlooks for 1Q 2025 were mostly positive, but the potential for tariffs, concerns about inflation, and interest rate uncertainty loomed large and tempered expectations.

Interested in keeping up to date with lumber price movements? You can subscribe to the Random Lengths weekly report, with the full commentary, including data visualizations and commodity-specific analysis.

The post Lumber price outlook positive despite historically wide price spreads appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Others were more optimistic, expecting that impact on steelmaking raw materials will be limited in the near-term given the slowdown in Japan’s crude steel output in recent years, adding that it may also speed up Japan’s decarbonization efforts, sources told Fastmarkets.

Overview of Japan’s new plans

Japan’s carbon trading market has been in its pilot phase since April 2023, with participation being voluntary until now.

The new mandatory trading system is set to initially cover 300 to 400 large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters, including steel, power, chemical and automotive producers that release more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, local media reported on November 22.

Under the scheme, the government will allocate emission quotas individually. Firms that emit less than their quota can sell their surplus carbon credits to others, while those emitting in excess must purchase additional credits or face penalties.

The government is expected to finalise the specific details of the trading system, including individual company quotas by 2026. A legislative proposal to amend relevant laws is expected to be introduced during the parliamentary session in 2025.

Japanese government officials are also considering setting a new target of 60% emissions reductions by 2035 and 73% by 2040, compared with current goal of 46% emissions reductions by 2030. These are both reductions in relation to 2013 levels.

Countries worldwide have been adopting emissions trading, a type of carbon pricing which charges companies based on their CO2 emissions, in a global shift toward a low-carbon future.

The European Union launched the world’s first Emissions Trading System (ETS) back in 2005, with its scope expanding to maritime transport emissions as well this year.

In Asia, South Korea launched its ETS in 2015, while China launched its ETS in 2021.

In September, China – the world’s largest steelmaker – also announced plans to onboard 1,500 firms in the steel, cement and electrolytic aluminium sectors to its ETS.

What does this mean for Japanese steelmakers?

Japanese market participants generally expect the new carbon tax to push up steelmaking costs in the long run, although the impact of this could be limited in the short-term due to low production rates in recent years and sparse details on the carbon quotas.

Major steel mills have been voluntarily reducing their crude steel production in recent years due to weak downstream demand, indirectly reducing their carbon output, a Japan-based source told Fastmarkets.

“If Japanese steel mills continue to cut crude steel production, they may automatically meet their target of CO2 emissions reduction in 2030,” the Japan-based source said. “In addition, emissions quotas have also yet to be allocated, so in the short-term, it may not have a significant impact on mills’ demand for different raw materials.”

The impact on iron ore demand is expected to be especially limited because most blast furnaces rely on long-term contracts and rarely procure material from the spot market.

Earlier in 2024, Japanese iron ore inventories were so high, they were occasionally being resold to the Mainland Chinese market.

A second Japan-based trader said there is “less flexibility to adjust long-term contract iron ore volume quarterly” unless they negotiate the volume at the start of the fiscal year. In 2024, most steel mills in Japan have reduced usage of high-grade pellets in blast furnace to about 5% due to the high cost and weaker downstream steel demand.

“There has been no similar plan like that seen in Mainland China to raise the pellet ratio in blast furnaces to reduce overall carbon emissions. Mills have been focusing more on transforming to hydrogen fueled electric arc furnace (EAF)-based steelmaking,” the second trader said.

Japanese market participants generally expect the new scheme to nudge steelmakers into investing in more, or speeding up investments, in decarbonization technologies, sources told Fastmarkets.

“If the carbon emission trading price is higher in the future, it could speed up mills’ steelmaking technology upgrades,” the second trader said.

Nippon Steel is planning to replace a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) with a new EAF at its Yahata plant and plans to build another EAF at its Hirohata facility. The steelmaker is also looking into using hydrogen to produce low-carbon steelmaking raw materials, included direct-reduced iron (DRI).

Other steelmaking giants, JFE Steel and Kobelco, are set to convert BOFs into EAFs in the latter half of the decade. The former saw its first green steel sales outside of Japan earlier this month.

In the long run, some Japanese market participants fear that the added costs could make it more difficult for firms to compete with cheap imports, particularly from China.

The gap between global steelmaking demand and capacity was approximately 551 million tonnes in 2023, according to OECD data.

“With the added carbon costs, this would only hurt Japanese steel prices in the short run, making them less price competitive than their cheaper Chinese counterparts. To counter this, we might see the Japanese-equivalent of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),” a Singapore-based trader said.

Tighter scrap supply for the rest of Asia?

Japan’s shift toward domestic EAF steelmaking, supported by the new ETS scheme, could disrupt Asian scrap markets and send scrap prices higher, sources said.

Limited scrap availability has been an ongoing concern for steelmakers, with a shortage of high-quality scrap being of particular concern.

In October, major local scrap buyer Tokyo Steel announced plans to grow its scrap collection capacity with a new yard in Chiba prefecture.

In June, major trading firm Mitsui also announced plans to invest in Indian recycling major MTC Group to secure more scrap.

A potential tightening of Japanese scrap supply could be especially troublesome for Vietnam, which has grown increasingly dependent on Japanese scrap imports in the recent year compared with costlier deep-sea scrap, sources said.

Vietnam overtook South Korea to become Japan’s largest export destination by volume, with the Southeast Asian nation importing 1.99 million tonnes of ferrous scrap from Japan in the first 10 months of 2024, making up over 51.2% of Vietnam’s total steel scrap import volumes, according to the latest Vietnam customs statistics.

The country’s cumulative import volumes from Japan for January to October jumped by 763,108 tonnes, or about 62.4%, from 1.22 million tonnes the year prior.

In contrast, Vietnam imported only 416,286 tonnes of steel scrap from the United States in the same period of 2024 , a decline of 409,892 tonnes, or 49.6%, year on year, customs data also showed.

Japanese scrap prices into Vietnam have maintained a discount of roughly $20 per tonne in relation to scrap from deep-sea sources like the US and Australia.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for deep-sea bulk cargoes of steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20), cfr Vietnam, has averaged $382.31 per tonne for the first 11 months of the year thus far, down more than $20 per tonne from an average of $406.56 per tonne the same period in 2023.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding weekly price assessment for steel scrap, H2, Japan-origin import, cfr Vietnam, has averaged $363.51 per tonne for January to November 2024, falling about $30 per tonne from $392.94 per tonne a year earlier.

South Korea and Taiwan, Japan’s second and third-largest export destinations for 2024 will likely also be affected, albeit by a smaller extent, sources told Fastmarkets.

Korea has been primarily sourcing from its domestic scrap supply amid sluggish construction demand and pressure from cheap billet from Mainland China.

Taiwan’s scrap demand has also been adversely affected by multiple typhoons in 2024 this year, leading to a slowdown in scrap buying appetite. Wide availability of cheap billet further eroded scrap demand.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel scrap H2 export, fob main port Japan was last at ¥44,500-46,100 ($293-304) per tonne on November 29, up by ¥1,600-2,000 per tonne from ¥42,500-44,500 per tonne a week earlier.

The post Japan mulls mandatory carbon trading; Asian steelmakers on alert appeared first on Fastmarkets.

For questions and comments please contact pricing@fastmarkets.com.

The post Fastmarkets Forest Products price publishing schedules for 2025 are now available online appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Our webinar panel, introduced by Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials at Fastmarkets and featuring our experts Connor Watts, Will Adams, Olivier Masson, Rob Searle, Amy Bennett, Muthu Krishna and Luke Sweeney, provided insights into all segments of the battery materials market. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

Battery demand outlook 2025

Connor Watts noted that while EV demand in Europe has fallen, we are now back into positive year-over-year growth. Elsewhere, China has been a key stalwart for EV demand with a 35% year on year increase.  

Watts said: “Some other key trends so far this year have been a continued shift towards LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), particularly in China.” 

“We expect EV demand to continue growing by 16% year-on-year, but the wider battery market is likely to grow much faster than that due to the development of the energy storage market,” he added. 

We expect growth in Europe next year, supported by new emissions regulations and potential positive outcomes from key elections in France and Germany. 

Lithium market looking robust

Will Adams noted that the market has rebalanced somewhat, and lithium carbonate prices have stabilized at about $11/kg with production cuts impacting supply. Cutbacks have led to significant drops in mine production in both China and Australia, but prices currently stand still at about 50% above the lows seen in 2020. 

The outlook for 2025 for lithium however is looking robust, and Adams surmised: “We’re probably going to be stepping in and out of deficits for a while, but as the deficits get closer, look out for the restocking phase as that can really give prices a boost.”  

Nickel market headed for surplus

Despite significant production cuts, the nickel market is expected to register a surplus this year, with the primary nickel demand in batteries growing by around 6% this year. According to Olivier Masson, the outlook for energy storage systems is strong, and he expects the battery sector to lead the demand for nickel in the years ahead.  

He said: “We expect crude stainless steel production to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% to 2028, driven by China and led by 300 series material, which is the high nickel containing stainless steel.” 

Cobalt prices under pressure

There are ongoing challenges in the cobalt market, where oversupply due to weak demand in Western markets and slow manufacturing growth has led to pressure on cobalt prices, according to Rob Searle. Mine supply growth has significantly outpaced demand, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Indonesia. Searle added: “We expect to see a significant surplus in 2024, with bullish and elevated prices in the cobalt market continuing into 2025”. 

Graphite and anode market  

Amy Bennett highlighted the challenges in the graphite market, with prices falling throughout the year and significant competition from the synthetic graphite sector. China’s dominance in the graphite supply chain has increased, with Chinese producers adding and expanding capacity for both natural and synthetic graphite. The market is expected to remain in surplus next year, with some modest price recovery expected as excess supply begins to be absorbed. 

Manganese market  

Manganese sulphate prices have turned bearish in Q4, Rob Searle explained, with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia. “We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” he noted. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity. 

Cell costs and forecasts  

“Falling raw material prices have driven cell costs to historic lows,” said Muthu Krishna, adding that cell costs in China have fallen by up to 60%. He also highlighted that stable prices are critical for long-term sustainable growth in the EV sector. “LFP is well placed to absorb the rise in raw material prices, and must be adopted more aggressively outside China if we are to see the development of more affordable EVs,” he added. 

To learn more about how lithium-ion cell costs are impacting EV costs, read the in-depth report from Muthu Krishna here.

Recycling and black mass  

Finally, Luke Sweeney noted that black mass payables are generally split between Europe and the rest of the world. He highlighted that there’s a huge discount for black mass in Europe because there is almost no refining capacity within Europe, and because the European market has a different regulatory environment, with black mass considered a hazardous waste. 

Due to the global under-supply of black mass, suppliers have a strong negotiating position when it comes to price. We expect the market to become oversupplied with black mass with the rapid growth in end-of-life battery waste availability. 

If you’d like to talk to us about how you can access more insights and market intelligence relating to the BRM market, get in touch today. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

The post Battery raw materials outlook 2025: Robust and rebalancing market appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price, which began the fourth quarter with eight consecutive weekly increases, fell for the second week in a row and lost $6. Wintry weather slowed consumption in northern-tier regions, contributing to the slower pace.

Western S-P-F sales slowed. Buyers digested recent purchases and many perceived an opportunity to pounce on at least modest bargains with supply tightness easing. In the South, downward price pressure persisted. Mills noted a measured increase in liquidity, but lamented suffering deepening financial losses at current price levels.

Colder temperatures slowed consumption, and year-end inventory taxes created incentive for buyers in some states to throttle back purchases. The unusually wide price spread between SYP and Western S-P-F was once again a frequent topic of conversation, but species substitution remained limited.

In Coast species, mills expressed confidence in next year’s outlook given the better-than-expected fourth-quarter run. Several mill representatives commented that they felt like they were “in the driver’s seat” as they wrapped up 2024.

In the Inland market, #2&Btr 2×6 posted modest gains across species, while wides were strongest in Fir&Larch. 2×12, which had posted some of the strongest gains for months, was flat in White Fir/ Hem-Fir. Sales of studs were lackluster.

Light industrial lumber trading kept downward pressure on some prices, as mills sold upper grades of shop and Mldg&Btr most aggressively.

Want more like this? You can subscribe to the Random Lengths weekly report, with the full commentary, including data visualizations and commodity-specific analysis.

The post Second consecutive week of price drops for framing lumber appeared first on Fastmarkets.

What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?

• The December US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns mildly bearish at 45.4
• The three-month trend indicator reflects an optimistic outlook for early 2025
• Both buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2
• Demand remains low and keeps prices down, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for December or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

US scrap market steadies amidst lower demand for December 2024

Cautious outlook and supply constraints

Consensus around the market direction remains measured. Buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook, with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, respectively, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2, although still below the neutral threshold of 50. Inventories across US scrap mills stand at 47.7, below the standard average of 50, indicating supply constraints.

Demand remains low, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Despite the flat movement expected for December, the higher forward-looking indicators suggest participants are preparing for potential shifts. Lower demand remains a key driver keeping prices subdued, but the market is poised for significant changes as 2025 unfolds.

The post US scrap trends outlook: December 2024 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Missed the webinar and want to catch up? Fill in the form here and you can watch a recording of the discussion.

Green steel push will come from customers

Customers will lead the green steel push, rather than regulation. Dempsey expressed his belief that the incoming second administration of President-elect Donald Trump will likely treat regulations with a light touch, leaving more room for free market exploration of what green steel is — and what the premium for it should be.

Unified definition of green steel isn’t needed

Not everyone defines green steel the same way — and that is OK. Charles said that a unified definition of green steel is not necessary to push the industry forward. Building on Dempsey’s comments, Charles said that customers will ultimately decide what level of green steel works best for their needs. Some may find electric-arc furnace (EAF) production satisfactory. Others will need to meet European requirements to export to that market. And some may eventually require zero-carbon options. But one thing is for sure — tiered pricing will emerge depending on the level of investment and effort needed to create ever-greener steel.

US customers shouldn’t foot bill for global green steel push

Market players are still reluctant to accept premiums for the world’s greenest steel. Alkaff pointed out that there is still some pushback from steel mill customers on accepting a green steel premium. Much of that stems from the US already possessing one of the greenest steel industries in the world due to the 70:30 split between EAF and integrated production. There is also the sense that the rest of the world could be doing more to decarbonize, and it is unfair to ask US customers to foot the bill for a global push.

Green steel revolution still a long time coming

Do not expect the green steel revolution to end anytime soon. Dempsey said that the decades of time and billions in investment that the US steel industry put into developing its scrap and steel industries will continue long into the future. Expect future steel initiatives to reach ever-higher environmental bars.

Too early to predict the direction of the green steel market entirely

Change takes time. All three panelists agreed that the movement is in its earliest days, and it is still a bit early to predict where definitions, premiums and policies may ultimately end up. On a long enough timeline, however, all three also agreed that some form of green steel will emerge as a distinct — and likely distinctly priced — product in the US market.

Fastmarkets carries both a US green steel differential and a US green steel base price.

The topic will be explored further at Fastmarkets’ Circular Steel Summit, slated for January 14-16 in Houston, Texas.

Discover how our suite of green steel prices can support your ‘green’ investment decisions while bringing transparency to the industry. Find out more.

The post Five key points from Fastmarkets’ US green steel webinar appeared first on Fastmarkets.