Crop conditions for corn, rated as good to very good, declined slightly to 75%, down from 76% the previous week. This is notably below the 82% recorded in 2023.

Soft wheat

Soft wheat sowing for the 2025 harvest reached 93% of the planned area, up from 90% the previous week. This progress surpasses the 81% completion rate observed at the same time in 2023 and slightly exceeds the five-year average of 91%.

The emergence stage improved to 77%, advancing from 65%, but remains just below the five-year average of 82%. Early tillering progressed to 20%, ahead of last year’s 16% but trailing the five-year average of 22%.

Crop conditions for soft wheat rated slightly decreased to 87%, down from 88% the previous week, but remain significantly higher than the 80% recorded for the 2024 harvest.

Winter barley

Winter barley sowing reached 98% of the planned area, up from 96% the previous week. This matches the five-year average and exceeds the 90% rate observed in 2023 at the same date.

Emergence increased to 88% from 80%, approaching the five-year average of 91%. Early tillering rose to 34%, compared to 28% in 2023 and close to the five-year average of 36%.

Crop conditions for winter barley remained stable at 84%, consistent with the previous week and slightly above the 82% recorded for the 2024 harvest.

Durum wheat

Durum wheat planting advanced to 63% of the planned area, up from 52% the previous week. This is well ahead of the 40% recorded at the same time in 2023 but trails the five-year average of 66%. Emergence rose to 25% from 14%, but it remains below the five-year average of 42%.

Early tillering began at 2%, slightly ahead of the 1% recorded in both 2023 and the five-year average.

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Total exports for the marketing year-to-date (since August) reached 9.95 million tonnes, up by 2.07 million tonnes, or 26%, compared with the 7.88 million tonnes shipped during the corresponding period in the previous marketing year.

Wheat exports

The weekly wheat export pace dropped significantly by 357,100 tonnes, or 60%, week-on-week to 233,600 tonnes, bringing total wheat exports in the current marketing year to 3.98 million tonnes. This is 185,700 tonnes, or 4%, below the 4.17 million tonnes exported in the same period in 2023.

Durum wheat exports also fell, decreasing by 89,300 tonnes, or 55%, week-on-week, to 72,200 tonnes. Total exports for the current marketing year totaled 665,000 tonnes, an increase of 139,800 tonnes, or 27%, compared with the 525,200 tonnes exported over the same period last year.

Barley exports

Weekly barley exports saw a slight drop of 5,100 tonnes, or 7%, from 72,500 tonnes to 67,400 tonnes. Year-to-date barley exports reached 493,500 tonnes, a 185,500 tonnes, or 60%, increase over the 308,000 tonnes exported at the same time last year.

Canola exports

Canola (rapeseed) exports experienced a significant decline of 131,800 tonnes, or 34%, week-on-week, to 253,000 tonnes. The cumulative canola exports for the marketing year stood at 2.59 million tonnes, representing a 1.5 million tonnes increase, or 138%, compared to the 1.09 million tonnes exported by this time last year.

Soybean exports

Soybean exports surged by 41,100 tonnes, or 48%, week-on-week, to 127,000 tonnes. Year-to-date soybean exports reached 422,200 tonnes, up by 188,200 tonnes, or 80%, compared with the 234,000 tonnes at the same stage in the previous marketing year.

Corn exports

Lastly, corn exports continued to be absent for the current week, similar to the previous one. The total for the marketing year so far stood at 286,000 tonnes, a 199,200 tonne, or 229% increase, from the 86,800 tonnes exported in the same period last year.

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The soft wheat harvest advanced by 10 percentage points during the week, reaching 98% by August 12, ahead of this time last year when 95% of the wheat crop had been harvested, and also above the five-year average of 95%.

The country’s agriculture ministry forecasts a sharp decline in soft wheat production to 25.2 million tonnes in 2024, down by 25% from the previous year and 27% below the five-year average.

The gloomy outlook is largely due to persistent rain, a lack of sunlight and cold weather, which have encouraged diseases that have significantly affected crop yields and quality in most of France’s agricultural regions.

Other grains, such as winter barley, have also been badly hit.

Durum wheat conditions were stable week on week, with 58% of the crop rated good to very good, down from 67% in the corresponding period of 2023.

The durum harvest progressed by 1 percentage points to 100% complete.

The average date for this stage is nine days later than 2023 and eight days later than the average for the previous five years.

Spring barley crop conditions

Spring barley conditions dipped by one percentage point from one week prior to 64% rated good to very good, behind the 73% recorded at the same point in 2023.

The spring barley harvest advanced by 17 percentage points to 91% complete, behind last year’s pace of 98% and below the five-year average of 97%.

The median date of this stage is 14 days behind 2023 and eight days behind the average of the previous five years.

Corn crop conditions

Corn crop conditions decreased by one percentage point to 76% in a good to very good state, down from 84% in the corresponding period of 2023.

The female flowering stage rose to 91%, compared with 81% a week earlier and 98% in 2023. The average for of the previous five years is 99%.

The median date of this stage is 11 days behind 2023 and the average of the previous five years.

The 50% grain moisture stage rose to 3%, versus 6% at this point in 2023 and 10% on average over the previous five years.

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Another 66,000 tonnes were headed for each of South America and Southeast Asia, while the destination for the remaining 27,000 tonnes was not specified.

Morocco was the leading destination for Russian exports during the reporting period, with 141,900 tonnes of wheat going there, followed by Egypt at 65,370 tonnes, Nigeria at 54,383 tonnes, Ethiopia at 48,300 tonnes, Angola at 32,500 tonnes, Tunisia at 27,500 tonnes and Libya at 16,500 tonnes.

Brazil has booked 66,000 tonnes, with the United Arab Emirates at 64,800 tonnes and Sri Lanka at 30,400 tonnes, according to the available data.

Furthermore, the line-up analysis showed that Russian barley shipments tripled compared with the previous week to 235,416 tonnes. That included 235,416 tonnes to Saudi Arabia and 108,500 tonnes to Libya.

Wheat exports in July so far have totaled 2.25 million tonnes, down by around 20% from July 2023.

Based on July figures, wheat exports may reach 2.8 million tonnes, down from 4.5 million tonnes a year earlier, and from the long-term average of 3.0 million tonnes, according to local analysts.

Barley exports in July amounted to 768,000 tonnes, down by 13% year on year, while corn exports reached 195,000 tonnes, down by 55% from the previous year.

This brought total exports of grain since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year in July to around 3.2 million tonnes, excluding exports to Eurasian Economic Union countries. This represented a decrease of around 23% year on year.

Top importers of Russian grain

In terms of cumulative volumes, Egypt has been the leading importer of Russian wheat so far in 2024/25, with 330,000 tonnes delivered, down by 12% year on year.

Morocco ranked second, importing 235,000 tonnes, while during the same period of the previous year, there were no exports to this location.

This was followed by Saudi Arabia with 188,000 tonnes (down by 43%), Libya with 124,000 tonnes (up by 113%) and Algeria with 112,000 tonnes (down by 7%).

Nigeria has booked 111,000 tonnes since the beginning of the season, compared with just 5,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

Bangladesh took 105,000 tonnes (down by 37% year on year), Turkey 97,000 tonnes (down by 78% year on year) while Tunisia tripled its deliveries compared with July last year to 81,000 tonnes.

Ethiopia increased shipments to 76,000 tonnes, compared with nil last year, the UAE took 66,000 tonnes (up 58%), Brazil 63,000 tonnes (up 2%), Syria 61,000 tonnes, compared with nil last year, Israel 60,000 tonnes (down 77%), and Tanzania 56,000 tonnes (down 57%).

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Wheat exports from the country’s key deep-sea ports for exports reached 41.8 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of just under 7% from 39.1 million tonnes in the previous marketing year, according to port line-up data seen by Fastmarkets.

Total export volumes, taking into consideration all export routes, exceeded 55.4 million tonnes, according to Russian analytical agency Rusagrotrans – an increase of around 24% from 44.7 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Exports were active from the very beginning of the 2023/24 season, with big harvests, high stocks and relatively competitive prices for Russia-origin wheat enticing buyers – unlike the previous season when prices were higher.

The export figure could have been even higher, Fastmarkets understands, but an unofficial governmental insistence on a minimum floor price limited Russian wheat’s competitiveness throughout the marketing year – especially with big state-backed tenders.

In addition, grain exports through the second half of the year were limited by an initial Russian agriculture ministry quota of 24 million tonnes, although this was subsequently expanded by 5 million tonnes.

Of the total 29 million tonnes available for export, ultimately, around 27 million tonnes actually left the country.

Structure of exporters

One of the main changes during the 2023/24 marketing year was the significant transformation of the structure and nature of the companies undertaking exports, with state-owned enterprises taking a bigger share.

Grain Gates, a company affiliated with major Russia-based state-backed trading house Demetra, took the lead in the first half of the marketing year, and consolidated that position in the second half of the season.

That came as private trader Rif – previously known as GTCS and Grain Flower in trading circles – came under pressure when the government withheld key phytosanitary documentation in a bid to enforce government policy, according to trade sources.

Such documents are vital for exports and sources have said that companies selling below the unofficial price floor often encountered problems getting documentation from the government.

Whatever the cause of the delayed access to documentation, the result, in data terms, shows that Rif – which was the leading Russian exporter for almost 10 consecutive years – lost 1.19 million tonnes of its export quota for the second half of the marketing year.

Quota allocations are typically based on how much agricultural product the company exports through the first half of the year, so reductions in the company’s activities led to a smaller presence when the quotas were set out.

Under this approach, Rif exported 7.3 million tonnes of wheat from the primary Black Sea ports in the 2023/24 marketing year, compared with the 12 million tonnes handled by the state-backed Grain Gates, and 5.5 million tonnes handled by trader Aston.

The last vessel shipped directly by Rif was reported in early May 2024, with the company not present in the export market since then, which potentially means that other exporters will have moved in to fill the gap.

Alongside that, a number of multinational companies such as Louis Dreyfus and Cofco significantly reduced their presence in the Russian market throughout the marketing year, with both seeing their export quotas cut to zero in the second half.

Structure of importers

While the two biggest importers of Russian wheat remained the same in 2023/24, big changes were seen in terms of other importing countries.

Egypt maintained its position as Russia’s main wheat customer, buying 8.2 million tonnes according to an analysis of Black Sea port line-up data – a drop of around 6% compared with the 8.7 million tonnes taken in during the 2022/23 marketing year.

But according to data from the Russian Grain Exporters Union, exports to Egypt totalled 8.6 million tonnes – a total that most likely factors in smaller coaster-sized parcels departing from the Azov Sea’s shallow water ports.

Turkey also held on to its place as the second biggest destination for Russian wheat, but imports dropped by almost 24% according to union data, with imports amounting to 7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year, down from 9.2 million tonnes in the previous season. Shipments through deep-water Black Sea ports declined by about 50% to 3.30 million tonnes, down from 6.75 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Wheat exports from Russia significantly increased into Asian destinations, however, with buyers there feeling more confident about buying Russia-origin wheat after a string of quality issues and in response to very attractive Russian wheat pricing at key stages of the marketing year.

Bangladesh overtook Iran to become the third biggest destination for Russian wheat in the latest marketing year, taking in 3.8 million tonnes, which was more than double the near-1.6 million tonnes reported in the previous season. Iranian wheat imports from Russia halved to 1.3 million tonnes as the country’s demand overall dropped.

Exports to Indonesia, meanwhile, increased almost tenfold to 1.6 million tonnes (from 168,200 tonnes in 2022/23), while Pakistan’s imports edged up slightly to 1.60 million tonnes (from 1.56 million tonnes) and Vietnam tripled its wheat bookings to 197,841 tonnes (up from 70,000 tonnes in the previous marketing year).

Exports also resumed to Sri Lanka (278,735 tonnes) and Malaysia (105,650 tonnes).

Wheat delivered into African destinations in general increased by 23% to 8.2 million tonnes, excluding Egypt, with shipments resuming into Morocco (318, 272 tonnes), Eritrea (58,000 tonnes), Ethiopia (32,700 tonnes).

Grains and oilseeds export data

Russia stopped publishing customs data in March 2022, shortly after undertaking its full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, which means the latest publicly available official statistics are from January 2022 – just over halfway through the 2021/22 marketing year.

Fastmarkets has, therefore, used alternative data sources and its own analysis to track exports of grains and oilseeds from Russia.

Port loading and ship data – known as line-up data – was one source of information, collecting information about the destination of ships, along with mirror data from key trading partners, to track imports.

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On June 30, the official end of the marketing year, the export of grains from Ukraine amounted to 50.38 million tonnes, including corn. This was an increase of 3%, 1.4 million tonnes, over the corresponding period of the 2022-23 marketing year.

The increase was even more remarkable given that, over the three months from July to September 2023, the country’s main deep-water bulk agriculture export ports were limited to just 335,000 tonnes of exports.

Export pace lagged through the first half of the 2023-24 marketing year, falling 17% behind the previous year’s exports in the first three months of the marketing year. This was a time when the grain export deal brokered between the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine was under severe strain amid mounting delays at key locations.

The volume of exports dropped sharply with Russia’s insistence on monitoring each ship coming into or leaving the Black Sea that was heading to or from a Ukrainian port. The deal eventually fell apart, with each side blaming the other.

But exports gradually began to recover in October 2023 after the Ukrainian government unveiled its alternative humanitarian route. Initially, the trade expressed concerns that it would be unworkable, but with confidence starting to improve, the export pace rebounded back to a normal level by December 2023.

That took the pressure off hard-pressed alternative export routes along the Danube, into the EU Black Sea port of Constanta, or via road and rail connections.

In this way, the Ukrainian humanitarian corridor has proven its effectiveness, surpassing the results of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and allowing the country to gradually return to pre-war export volumes.

Moreover, while the sea route has regained its pre-war importance, export volumes via the Danube have decreased. The latest data from the country’s agriculture ministry showed that the share of exports going by sea reached 80% for the whole 2023-24 marketing year, up from 73% in the previous year.

The share of exports going through the ports along the Danube dropped by 9 percentage points to 30%, while the export share held by the Great Odesa ports moved to 49%, compared with 55% for the whole of the previous season.

Over the past five months, it has been stable at around 73% on average.

Along with more volume heading out of the Black Sea, and monthly export figures once again returning to pre-war levels, confidence among freight sources in the continuation of the corridor means that freight rates have also come down to more normal levels.

Even with the war-risk premium still in force, Ukraine’s exports now price around $6-7 per tonne above the EU price for Panamax vessels and $4-5 per tonne for Handy-sized, compared with the levels seen from the EU Black Sea ports into the same destinations.

Wheat exports grew the most

In terms of the commodities being exported, wheat showed the most significant growth at 9%, amounting to 1.5 million tonnes compared with last year, and taking the total to 18.4 million tonnes, with the country’s reach again becoming truly global.

That export figure was slightly above the USDA’s forecast, which was for 18.1 million tonnes for the 2023-24 marketing year, while the country’s wheat production reached 21.6 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to the latest data from Ukraine’s statistics agency, Ukrstat.

Spain overtook Turkey to become the main importer of Ukrainian wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year, taking 5.9 million tonnes – a factor that was driven by more than the country’s export capacity.

Two primary reasons came into play, with Ukraine producing more feed wheat to boost availability and make the wheat relatively cheap compared with corn, along with Ukraine being the most competitive option for Spanish destinations for long periods during the year.

Egypt also overtook Turkey to take the number two spot, doubling its purchases to 1.72 million tonnes.

Increases in shipments were also reported for other African destinations, with Algeria’s imports rising threefold to 588,500 tonnes, Tunisia’s buying up by 79% to 444,800 tonnes, and Morocco resuming imports after a pause during 2022-23. Morocco imported 144,900 tonnes over the year.

The reopening of the country’s Black Sea ports allowed Ukraine to increase shipments to Asian destinations as well, with around 4.3 million tonnes traveling long haul. This was more than double the volume last year of 1.9 million tonnes.

Pakistan resumed imports, with 814,000 tonnes heading there, while Indonesia increased its purchases by a factor of more than three to reach 1.5 million tonnes, making it the third-biggest importer.

Vietnamese imports also significantly improved, with an increase of nearly 4 times to 683,000 tonnes imported, compared with only 178,400 tonnes in 2022-23.

South Korean buyers increased their purchases to 240,600 tonnes, despite buy tenders for the country still explicitly ruling out Ukraine-origin wheat.

The Philippines resumed imports as well, with 86,400 tonnes imported – although the figure was still well below pre-war levels.

Top importers of Ukrainian grains changed hands

For Turkey and Romania, respectively Ukraine’s first and second biggest customers in the 2022-23 marketing year, the countries both lost position – with Turkey losing a position it had only gained as a result of the Black Sea grain initiative.

With only slightly more than 1 million tonnes imported through the year, Turkey slipped down the order, while Romania’s position was entirely predicated on the ability to re-export Ukrainian corn via Romanian ports.

Consequently, with the re-opening of the Great Odesa ports, wheat exports to the country dropped by 62% to 1 million tonnes.

Falls were also seen in wheat exports to neighboring countries, because the re-opening of the humanitarian corridor meant that alternate export routes carried less significance than they had during the continuing blockade of exports from Ukraine’s ports.

As a result, wheat imports into Poland fell to just 1,100 tonnes, from 899,500 tonnes last year, while Hungary’s imports were zero, down from 290,400 tonnes in 2022-23.

Slovakia imported just 5,100 tonnes, compared with 131,800 tonnes last year.

Barley export dropped

Barley exports declined by 221,000 tonnes compared with the previous year, to a total of 2.5 million tonnes amid lower production in the country.

But the figure was still 200,000 tonnes above the USDA’s 2023-24 projection at 2.3 million tonnes, while production in the 2023-24 marketing year was 5.5 million tonnes, according to Ukrstat. This meant that around half of the total production was exported.

The main destination for Ukraine’s barley exports in the 2023-24 marketing year remained China, which doubled to 701,500 tonnes – although the figure was still well below the pre-war level of 2.6 million tonnes.

Spain remained the second-biggest destination for a second year with imports at 460,100 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Ukraine, with the total figure reaching 131,500 tonnes.

Meanwhile, as with wheat, imports of barley by Romania dropped by 64% to 211,900 tonnes, amid a normalization in the movement of Ukrainian volumes out of the Black Sea.

Corn export remain at similar levels

Finally, corn exports during the period from July 2023 to June 30, 2024, reached 29.3 million tonnes, largely in line with last year’s results at the same stage.

The marketing year for corn typically starts in September, meaning that these figures do not reflect the typical marketing year and the final 2023-24 export data has yet to be received.

It also means that, for the first few months of the marketing year under consideration, corn exports will be slower because they are coming from old crop supply.

Corn production in 2023-24 reached 31 million tonnes, however, according to Ukrstat.

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The biggest soybean importer over the week was Germany with 84,006 tonnes, followed by Spain with 74,474 tonnes and Italy with 47,832 tonnes.

The total soybean imports for the current marketing year stand at 12.77 million tonnes, down by 1% from a year earlier.

Spain (3.32 million tonnes), the Netherlands (2.99 million tonnes), Germany (2.30 million tonnes), Italy (2.11 million tonnes) and Portugal (866,531 tonnes) have been the main importers since the current marketing season began in July.

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Soybean meal imports are down

Weekly soybean meal imports by countries in the economic bloc amounted to 244,729 tonnes.

Poland imported 57,722 tonnes of the weekly volume of soybean meal, followed by Greece with 25,910 tonnes, Denmark with 25,880 tonnes, Northern Ireland with 25,360 tonnes and Spain with 25,280 tonnes.

The cumulative volume since the beginning of the season is 15.33 million tonnes, down by 3% year on year, according to preliminary data.

Poland (2.84 million tonnes), the Netherlands (2.11 million tonnes), France (1.76 million tonnes), Spain (1.72 million tonnes) and Italy (1.34 million tonnes) are the top five importers of soybean meal since the start of the season.

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Rapeseed imports have dropped

Imports of rapeseed into the EU totaled 134,688 tonnes in the week to June 23, pushing the total to 5.48 million tonnes for the marketing year, which is 26% lower than a year earlier.

Belgium booked the majority of the weekly volume, taking in 123,678 tonnes.

The major importers of rapeseed since July 2023 are Belgium (1.56 million tonnes), Germany (1.38 million tonnes), France (940,743 tonnes), the Netherlands (765,079 tonnes) and Greece (212,692 tonnes), according to the Commission’s report.

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Sunflower oil imports are up

Weekly sunflower oil imports totaled 52,316 tonnes, which brought the cumulative volume of imports since the beginning of the season to 2.68 million tonnes, 53% higher than a year earlier.

Spain (758,680 tonnes), the Netherlands (441,884 tonnes), Poland (421,245 tonnes), Italy (416,731 tonnes) and Bulgaria (146,218 tonnes) are the top five importers since the start of the season.

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Palm oil imports have increased

Finally, imports of palm oil totaled 25,842 tonnes during the week, with Italy importing the most at 17,742 tonnes.

This has increased the total number of imports since the beginning of July to 3.26 million tonnes, which is 19% lower than last year.

The main importers since the beginning of the current season are Italy (1.14 million tonnes), the Netherlands (946,110 tonnes), Spain (483,373 tonnes), Germany (257,497 tonnes) and Sweden (104,427 tonnes).

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The Commission’s import data does not include Hungary’s imports because data from the country was not available between the end November 2023 and the end of May 2024.

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