Misha Simonovska, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/misha-simonovska-br/ Commodity price data, forecasts, insights and events Thu, 28 Nov 2024 08:59:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.altis-dxp.com/?v=6.4.3 https://www.fastmarkets.com/content/themes/fastmarkets/assets/src/images/favicon.png Misha Simonovska, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/misha-simonovska-br/ 32 32 Latvia to build first Baltic renewable fuel plant at Port of Riga https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/latvia-to-build-first-baltic-renewable-fuel-plant-at-port-of-riga/ Thu, 28 Nov 2024 08:59:22 +0000 urn:uuid:2fc195e7-04ea-4b0c-8632-4c7f11ea541b A renewable fuel production facility for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is set to be established at the Port of Riga, Latvia, making it the first of its kind in the Baltics, the port announced on Tuesday November 26.

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The total project cost is estimated at €120 million ($126 million) and is led by Latvian logistics and transport company Sia Pars Terminals in partnership with Ukrainian investors.

Located in Kundziņsala, the facility will have the capacity to process 236,000 tonnes per year of raw materials, producing 93,000 tonnes of HVO and 87,000 tonnes of SAF.

Construction is expected to be completed in 20 months, with all required equipment and technologies already in place, the port said.

The plant will use vegetable oils as the main raw material for the production of the renewable fuels.

Latvia’s aviation sector, including its national carrier airBaltic, stands to gain significantly from the project.

“[The facility] would bring immediate, significant economic benefits, especially after 2030, when at least 20% of the fuel consumed in aviation will have to be renewable,” Armands Sadauskis, owner of Sia Pars Terminals, said.

Fastmarkets’ senior analyst, Tore Alden, answers six key questions on the challenges faced by the sustainable aviation fuel industry. Watch the full interview here.

Alignment with regulations

This agreement aligns with the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which has set progressive targets for SAF usage. Starting at 2% by 2025, the target increases to 70% by 2050.

This development also aligns with a broader initiative by the Latvian Ministry of Transport to evaluate SAF production potential in Latvia and Estonia.

Launched in July 2024, the 16-month project aims to identify optimal policy frameworks and technological solutions for SAF production.

The initiative includes interviews with policymakers and industry representatives, country-specific assessments of SAF technologies, and recommendations to enhance competitiveness in the SAF industry, the Latvian ministry said in a statement in October.

View our SAF prices

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UK government seeks feedback on future of RTFO https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/uk-government-seeks-feedback-on-future-of-rtfo/ Tue, 26 Nov 2024 13:50:22 +0000 urn:uuid:7055bde5-07d9-4245-98df-6b31d2150e81 The UK government’s latest report on the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) invites stakeholder feedback to reassess its targets and mechanisms.

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The UK government issued a report on Monday November 25, inviting stakeholders to provide feedback on key aspects of the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) plan and its impact on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector.

The RTFO, which has been fundamental in encouraging the use of renewable fuels such as biodiesel, bioethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrogen, is being reassessed to ensure its targets and mechanisms remain effective in achieving long-term GHG reductions.

In the report, the British government says it aims to align the plan with the UK’s broader net-zero commitments and subsequent carbon budgets.

According to recent UK government data on biofuels, the RTFO has supported the supply of 1.44 billion liters of renewable fuel so far this year, a slight decline from 1.48 billion liters in 2023.

This reduction was caused by a sharp (18%) drop in biodiesel volumes, which fell to 643 million liters from 790 million liters in 2023. Despite this, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) volumes almost doubled year-on-year, to reach 254 million liters so far in 2024, highlighting the growing adoption of advanced fuels.

Additionally, bioethanol volumes increased by 13% to 684 million liters, reinforcing its role as a significant contributor to renewable energy in transport.

The government said that it is now seeking input on several critical aspects of the RTFO.

Stakeholders are being asked to assess whether the current trajectory of renewable fuel targets remains appropriate beyond 2032, or if adjustments are needed to maximize emissions reductions and support decarbonization efforts.

By 2032, the RTFO requires 21% of all UK transport fuel to come from renewable sources, and caps the total contribution of crop-based biofuels at 2% of the entire supply. Development fuels (advanced fuel innovations) are expected to contribute 3.4% and waste-based fuels 15.67% of the total.

Another focus is how effectively the RTFO rewards low-carbon fuels (LCFs) and whether the incentives are sufficient to drive continued investment in this sector, the report said.

Balancing the use of crop-based feedstocks with waste-derived alternatives is also under review, particularly as competition for waste-based fuels is expected to increase.

Additionally, the effectiveness of development fuels category is being re-evaluated after “development diesel” volumes more than doubled to 24 million liters in 2024, while “development petrol” rose by 6 million liters to 10 million liters.

Stakeholders are also being asked to share their views on the administration of the RTFO, including the certification processes and compliance mechanisms.

Evaluating the plan’s impact

According to the report, the call for evidence emphasizes the importance of reflecting on the RTFO’s achievements to date. Specifically, it seeks to determine how effective current target levels have been in maximizing GHG savings and stimulating investment in the low-carbon fuels industry.

According to the 2024 data, the RTFO achieved a certification rate of 78%, down slightly from 81% in 2023, suggesting there is room for improvement in terms of compliance and efficiency.

“It is now important [that] we consider whether the current trajectory is appropriate and how it should be reflected beyond 2032 to achieve effective GHG emissions savings in subsequent carbon budgets,” the government said.

The feedback gathered will shape the next phase of the RTFO implementation, the report said, to ensure it remains fit for purpose as the UK transitions to cleaner energy.

This includes addressing challenges such as securing sustainable feedstock, scaling advanced fuel production and meeting ambitious net-zero targets.

For example, UK SAF volumes fell slightly to 37 million liters in 2024, but the government’s SAF mandate aims to significantly expand production in the coming years to align with international standards such as the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which mandates that airlines use a minimum of 2% SAF by the end of 2025.

Stakeholders can read the report and provide feedback by visiting the consultation here. The deadline for submissions is January 27, 2025.

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Neste pulls back on green hydrogen project at Porvoo refinery https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/neste-pulls-back-on-green-hydrogen-project-at-porvoo-refinery/ Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:40:06 +0000 urn:uuid:ebee5d17-c630-46d1-acec-30fe375de50d Neste has canceled its 120 MW electrolyzer project at the Porvoo refinery due to economic and regulatory challenges, reflecting a broader trend of energy companies scaling back renewable fuel investments.

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Finnish biofuel producer Neste has announced it will no longer pursue its planned 120 MW electrolyzer project to produce renewable hydrogen at its Porvoo refinery in southern Finland, citing challenging market conditions and financial performance as key factors.

In a statement on Thursday October 24, Neste explained that tight constraints in Finland on renewable hydrogen use for refineries – specifically, meeting the renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) distribution obligation – limit the project’s economic feasibility, as renewable hydrogen cannot be fully integrated at Porvoo’s refinery processes as originally planned.

The Finnish biofuel producer had intended for the electrolyzer to replace fossil-based hydrogen with green hydrogen at Porvoo, aligning with its broader strategy to decarbonize its operations.

Fastmarkets reached out to Neste for further details on how this may impact its biofuel strategy but did not receive a response prior to publication.

Neste has previously stated its commitment to achieving carbon-neutral production by 2035 and aims to reduce carbon intensity of its sold products by 50% by 2040.

Neste’s decision aligns with recent moves by other energy companies scaling back on renewable fuel investments.

UK energy major BP announced earlier this year it would scale back investments in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel production, citing difficult economic conditions.

Similarly, oil major Shell paused the construction of its 820,000-tonne-per-year biofuels facility at Rotterdam Energy and Chemicals Park in the Netherlands to address market and project delivery challenges.

Despite such adjustments, renewable hydrogen remains a key component in producing synthetic aviation fuel (eSAF).

The eSAF process typically relies on renewable electricity to produce hydrogen through electrolysis, which then combines with captured carbon dioxide to form carbon monoxide.

This compound is further processed with hydrogen to produce synthetic crude, which can ultimately be refined into renewable fuels.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) projects that, by 2050, hydrogen demand will rise to 613 million tonnes from 87.1 million tonnes in 2020.

To meet this demand, two thirds of the hydrogen must be green hydrogen – that is, produced with clean electricity.

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European automotive producers claim growing decarbonization pains and environment groups decry ‘self-serving stunts’ https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-automotive-producers-claim-growing-decarbonization-pains/ Tue, 17 Sep 2024 10:03:07 +0000 urn:uuid:ef3215f4-b4eb-4847-be9a-aeac5246af47 Europe's automakers are increasingly vocal about the challenges they face in meeting the EU's stringent decarbonization targets, citing growing concerns over economic uncertainty, consumer reluctance to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and shrinking production margins.

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As the EU pushes forward with its ambitious climate targets, automakers warn that critical challenges risk undermining the industry’s capacity to comply with the aggressive emissions standards set for the coming years.

However, the warnings have been dismissed by environment groups who point to strong profits made by many of the automakers and accuse them of trying to undermine the ambitious plans to transition away from fossil fuels.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is calling for a two-year delay on the EU’s 2025 carbon dioxide (CO2) emission targets for automakers, citing a lack of critical infrastructure and readiness in the transition to EVs.

In a statement published on Thursday September 12, ACEA urged the EU to invoke emergency regulations to grant automakers more time to meet the aggressive CO2 standards set for light-duty vehicles.

“The transition to zero emission is highly challenging, with concerns about meeting the 2025 CO2 emission reduction targets for light-duty vehicles on the rise,” ACEA said.

These demands come in response to the EU’s April 2023 amendment to its CO2 regulations, which strengthened emission reduction targets to align with the bloc’s goal of climate neutrality by 2050.

The revised regulations enforce stricter cuts by 2030 and introduce a 100% emission reduction for new cars and vans starting in 2035. The current targets for 2025 stand at 93.6 grams of CO2 per kilometer for passenger cars and 153.9 grams of CO2 per km for light commercial vehicles (LCVs).

Infrastructure and industry challenges

ACEA argues that the EU is missing several key factors required to facilitate the mass adoption of zero-emission vehicles. The association points to a lack of sufficient charging stations and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, a shortage of affordable green energy and inadequate incentives for consumers.

Furthermore, automakers face supply chain challenges in securing raw materials, hydrogen and batteries, all of which are critical for producing EVs at scale, the statement said.

Despite years of preparation, ACEA claims the current pace of infrastructure development and industry readiness does not match the urgency of the EU’s emission targets.

Criticism from environmental advocates

Not everyone is on board with the proposed delay. Brussels-based industry group Transport & Environment (T&E) criticized ACEA’s appeal, calling it a “self-serving stunt.”

Julia Poliscanova, T&E’s senior director for vehicles and supply chains, dismissed the request, saying, “Carmakers made over €130 billion in profits in the last two years and had years to prepare for the target. Now they want the EU to declare a state of emergency so they can continue selling dirty cars and making large profits. This is not a war or a pandemic, but a self-serving stunt.”

According to an analysis by T&E released in April, the auto industry has already made substantial progress. CO2 emissions from new cars in the EU have dropped by 28% since 2019.

Some manufacturers, like Volvo, are even ahead of schedule, having already met their 2025 targets based on 2023 sales. Others, like Kia and Stellantis, are reportedly close to compliance, with only minor gaps to bridge.

However, Volkswagen and Ford are lagging behind, facing emissions gaps of 22 grams of CO2 per km and 24 grams of CO2 per km, respectively.

Shifting targets amid EV challenges

While ACEA calls for a delay, some automakers are reevaluating their own EV timelines.

Volvo, which had previously committed to an all-electric lineup by 2030, has scaled back its ambitions, now targeting 80-100% of its global sales to be electric by that year. The Swedish carmaker cited shifting market conditions and consumer demand as reasons for the change.

Similarly, Italy’s Fiat and Germany’s Audi have announced plans to invest more in hybrid powertrains rather than going fully electric in the near term, while Volkswagen announced that they are closing some of their factories in Germany.

Despite government incentives and support, automakers are finding it difficult to meet the rising demand for affordable EVs while maintaining profitability.

The path ahead

As the debate continues, the EU remains firm on its climate goals, with legislation mandating a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and full climate neutrality by 2050.

The bloc aims to produce 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen locally and import another 10 million tonnes annually by 2030 to support its energy transition.

However, the calls from automakers to delay the 2025 targets raise critical questions about whether the industry is truly ready to deliver on Europe’s ambitious emissions goals.

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European Commission energy report highlights progress in renewable energy but downplays biofuels https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-commission-energy-report-highlights-progress-in-renewable-energy/ Mon, 16 Sep 2024 10:27:41 +0000 urn:uuid:629ba60b-5d51-4c6e-8041-8583f93b6a4f The European Commission published its annual State of the Energy Union Report 2024 on Wednesday, September 11, outlining the EU’s progress toward the clean energy transition and climate goals

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However, the document makes only brief mention of biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), despite their importance in decarbonizing industries such as aviation.

In the first half of 2024, half of the EU’s electricity generation came from renewable sources, breaking previous capacity records.

At the same time, the EU reduced its reliance on Russian gas, with imports dropping from 45% in 2021 to 18% by June 2024. The gap was filled by increased imports from partners such as Norway and the US.

Gas demand was reduced by 138 billion cubic meters (bcm) between August 2022 and May 2024, and the EU reached its winter gas storage target of 90% by August 2024, well ahead of the November deadline, the report showed.

The EU also made notable progress in reducing emissions, cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 32.5% from 1990 to 2022. Over the same period, the EU economy grew by around 67%, demonstrating economic growth alongside environmental sustainability.

Challenges in growing net-zero technology

Despite these achievements, the report also points to challenges for EU manufacturers in the growing net-zero technology markets.

The production of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and heat pumps recorded the most significant growth in 2023, with a 30% increase in production value. Other technologies, such as fuel cells, ocean energy, biofuels and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), also grew.

Despite these gains, the EU’s trade deficit in Li-ion batteries increased by 21% compared with 2022 levels, reaching nearly €19 billion ($20.95 billion). A similar trend was observed in solar photovoltaics (PV), although the trade deficit in this sector fell by 13%, the report said.

Focus on biogas and biomethane

Looking ahead, the EU is focusing on biogas and biomethane production as part of its climate strategy.

The report projects production could reach 30-32 bcm by 2030, although more effort is needed to hit the EU’s target of 35 bcm per year by that time, according to the Commission.

In 2024, combined biogas and biomethane production stood at 21 bcm, with biomethane accounting for 5.2 bcm.

The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with an intermediate target of reducing net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Additionally, the Commission has proposed a 2040 target to cut emissions by 90%, reinforcing the EU’s commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral continent.

View our biofuel and feedstock prices

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Final decision on proposal to amend frequency of European ultra low sulfur diesel, biodiesel assessments https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/final-decision-on-proposal-to-amend-frequency-of-european-ultra-low-sulfur-diesel-biodiesel-assessments/ Fri, 30 Aug 2024 21:03:25 +0000 urn:uuid:1387a2ee-bba0-4e3a-80a1-e58b694c5d40 Fastmarkets will amend the pricing frequency of its three main European biodiesel assessments, both as outright prices and as premiums to the underlying gasoil contract, as well as its ultra low sulfur diesel assessment from a weekly basis to daily, effective Tuesday September 3.

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Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry via an open consultation process between August 7 and August 30, 2024.

The affected prices and their specifications are listed below, with the proposed amendment of price frequency in italics:

EN-PO-0001: Oil, ultra low sulfur diesel, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Ultra low sulfur diesel meeting European specification EN590, with sulfur less than 10 parts per million (ppm)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0004: UCOME Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Used cooking oil methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, sulfur less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0001: UCOME premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Used cooking oil methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, sulfur less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0005: FAME 0 Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Fatty acid methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0002: FAME 0 premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Fatty acid methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0006: RME Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Rapeseed methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with minimum CFPP of minus 12 degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 300 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0003: RME premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Rapeseed methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with minimum CFPP of minus 12 degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 300 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

These prices are part of the Fastmarkets Agriculture Oils, Fats and Biofuels prices and news package.

To provide feedback on these prices or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact Misha Simonovska by email at: pricing.ags@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Misha Simonovska, re: European ultra low sulfur diesel and biodiesel.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

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US largely absent from UK’s first 2024 biofuel data; Asia volumes decline https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-largely-absent-from-uks-first-2024-biofuel-data/ Tue, 20 Aug 2024 18:03:57 +0000 urn:uuid:9953101f-5158-402b-98f3-7aefcb1ebbc5 The UK government’s first release of provisional biofuel data for the calendar year to the end of July 2024, published on Wednesday August 14, reveals a notable decline in renewable fuel activity compared with the same period last year.

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Major suppliers to the UK, including the US, China, Indonesia and Malaysia, appear to have significantly reduced their feedstock supplies this year, with the US notably having made no hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) shipments in 2024.

This development bucks a trend during which those four countries – each of which is a significant supplier of feedstocks or fuels derived from palm products or used cooking oil (UCO) – have been taking a bigger share of the UK’s feedstock market in recent years.

But overall volumes have declined because decisions were made, perhaps for administrative reasons, to delay declarations of origins and types of fuels. This came amid increased scrutiny of some flows as well as concerns about a potential increase in fuels originating in China or the US.

Participating parties are not required to release this data until the compilation of the final report, at the end of the compliance period in September 2025, and analysis of the data suggests that hesitation in declaring volumes, feedstocks and origins is playing a part in clouding the data.

According to the report, the total supplied volume of renewable fuel has dropped by 13% to 1.71 billion liters in 2024 from 1.97 billion liters in the corresponding data release for 2023.

However, once delivered into the UK, the fuel has to be validated before a renewable transport fuel certificate (RTFC) can be issued, and those compliance rates have significantly declined year on year, to 39% in this first data cut for 2024, compared with 47% at the same stage of 2023.

Regarding individual countries, the volumes of fuel from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the US have dropped sharply at this stage of the cycle. Only 97 million liters have been confirmed so far as renewable fuel supplied from one of the four countries, compared with 278 million liters in 2023.

An industry source declined to be quoted on the record but acknowledged that data submission delays could be a factor in this. And if key companies, especially those importing from the US, have been slower in submitting their data, this could account for the lower-than-expected numbers in this initial release.

Lack of clarity

Each of the main priority areas of UK carbon emissions policies has shown a decline in data clarity, with just 7 million liters of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) declared in 2024, with around 6 million liters of that being drawn from China and Malaysia.

That compares with 13 million liters declared at the same stage of 2023, when China and Malaysia accounted for around 9 million liters. In all cases, the feedstock was identified as UCO.

For hydrotreated vegetable oil – a sophisticated type of biodiesel that closely mirrors the performance of fossil fuel-based diesel – the number of countries supplying fuel or feedstock increased in 2024, but overall volumes declared were sharply lower.

Around 25 million liters of HVO has been certified, versus 102 million liters at the same time in 2023, with China’s contribution reduced and the US portion absent.

That contrasts with market feedback, received throughout the year, that there has been a step-up in volumes of renewable diesel coming from the US, which has brought pressure on domestic production margins and prompted comment from UK-based industry groups.

Paul Thompson, of the Association for Renewable Energy and Clean Technology (REA), told Fastmarkets earlier that “cheap [US biodiesel] imports are affecting our members already.”

But US HVO is absent from the first data series – and much of the US contribution to the UK’s biofuel supply is again focused on ethanol.

Just 23,000 tonnes of US-origin UCO-based fuel has been supplied to the UK in the form of waste-based used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME) biodiesel. It was not classified as the more sophisticated renewable diesel, for which there has been a significant increase in US production capacity in recent months.

Finally, the supply of palm-based products was slashed to 13 million liters, with 10 million liters coming from Indonesia and the balance from Malaysia, while 8 million liters were used to produce conventional biodiesel and only 5 million classed as HVO.

In all cases, the feedstock was palm oil mill effluent. This contrasted with the 2023 data, when 81 million liters of palm-based product had been declared and both palm oil and palm oil mill effluent were feedstocks.

In 2023, Malaysia supplied 18 million liters and Indonesia 63 million liters, with small volumes also supplied from Mexico.

Scrutiny on trade flows

On the primary data, the published update provided insight into how the key elements of the UK’s biofuel market have evolved so far in 2024, with 1.08 billion RTFCs issued by the end of July.

That figure was down from 1.5 billion such certificates issued during the same seven-month period in 2023.

There was also a reduction in volumes in the broader biofuel sector, with general biofuels – typically waste-based – falling to 421 million liters from 594 million liters, and crop-based biofuels dropping by almost 90 million liters to 240 million liters.

UCO, the largest single feedstock, showed a decline in supply to 158 million liters of renewable diesel from 375 million liters last year, with the landscape around the feedstock market undergoing a series of challenges.

In December 2023, the European Commission initiated an investigation in an attempt to regulate the entry of China-origin biodiesel into Europe, primarily in the form of UCOME derived from UCO.

Following this, the Commission recently confirmed that anti-dumping duties will be applied to Chinese biodiesel producers from Friday August 16.

Previous analysis undertaken by Fastmarkets has shown that the UK has reported a steady uptick in the use of palm oil-based feedstocks and an increased reliance on origins such as China, the US, Indonesia and Malaysia.

With the UK now outside the EU, it is no longer covered by EU anti-dumping regulations, nor bound by pre-existing limits on imports from powerhouse producers such as the US, whose ethanol exports have also drawn the attention of EU legislators in the past.

This means that the UK has benefited from access to a wider range of feedstocks and finished biofuels – but potentially at a cost to the country’s domestic producers. Scotland-based biodiesel producer Argent announced in May that it was closing its production unit at Motherwell.

Amid these declines in conventional fuels, there was a notable increase in development fuels, particularly those derived from end-of-life tires sourced from Indonesia, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden.

These tires were converted into 1.2 million liters of development diesel and 852,000 liters of development petrol. These figures were up from the 644,000 liters of development diesel and 460,000 liters of development petrol supplied during the same January to July period of 2023.

Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

Under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), the UK mandates a specific percentage-based blend target for the general fuel mix for each year through to 2032. The overall mandate increases annually, while the contribution of crop-based feedstocks is reduced year on year.

Obligated parties in the UK market – those that supply more than 450,000 liters into the fuel mix – must meet the blend targets, but audit data is collected over a long period, and the full balance is not expected to be settled until September of the year following the initial data release.

Over the course of that timeframe, the UK government released five provisional reports detailing the full account of feedstocks used, fuels supplied, countries of origin and the number of RTFCs issued. A final report is usually released in November of the year following the end of the compliance period.

Consequently, final compliance with 2024 targets is not expected until late September 2025, with the final data view for the full year to be presented in November 2025.

For 2024, the UK has a mandate requiring 14.94% of the country’s entire road fuel supply to be drawn from a renewable source, with the use of crop-based feedstocks capped at 3.33%.

Alongside that, the mandate for the use of development fuels was set at 1.37%, meaning that 10.2% of the total UK fuel supply must come from waste-based feedstocks.

View our biofuels and feedstocks prices

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Proposal to amend frequency of European ultra low sulfur diesel, biodiesel assessments https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/proposal-to-amend-frequency-of-european-ultra-low-sulfur-diesel-biodiesel-assessments/ Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:39:18 +0000 urn:uuid:f4228f5d-c8c0-4151-9263-cc8947cc7323 Fastmarkets proposes to amend the pricing frequency of its three main European biodiesel assessments, both as outright prices and as premiums to the underlying gasoil contract, as well as its ultra low sulfur diesel assessment from a weekly basis to daily.

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Following an initial consultation with the market and a review of typical data sets that have been collected over recent months, Fastmarkets now proposes to assess and publish spot price assessments daily, from the current weekly basis every Friday.

The prices that would be affected by this change are EN-PO-0001: Oil, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel, fob ARA, $/tonne; EN-BD-0004 Biodiesel, UCOME Outright, fob ARA, $/tonne; EN-BD-0001: Biodiesel, UCOME premium, fob ARA, $/tonne; EN-BD-0005: Biodiesel, FAME 0 Outright, fob ARA, $/tonne; EN-BD-0002: Biodiesel, FAME 0 premium, fob ARA, $/tonne; EN-BD-0006: Biodiesel, RME Outright, fob ARA, $/tonne; and EN-BD-0003: Biodiesel, RME premium, fob ARA, $/tonne.

This increased frequency is crucial, as it allows Fastmarkets to capture and reflect the rapid fluctuations and dynamics of the spot market more accurately, and complements our increased focus on the feedstocks and finished biofuels in the European sector.

Given the volatility and fast-paced nature of the biofuels market, daily assessments provide more relevant and timely information, helping stakeholders make better-informed decisions based on the most current market conditions.

The proposed new specifications are listed below, with the proposed amendment of price frequency in italics:

EN-PO-0001: Oil, ultra low sulfur diesel, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Ultra low sulfur diesel meeting European specification EN590, with sulfur less than 10 parts per million (ppm)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing:Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0004: UCOME Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Used cooking oil methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, sulfur less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0001: UCOME premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Used cooking oil methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, sulfur less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing:Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0005: FAME 0 Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Fatty acid methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing: Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0002: FAME 0 premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Fatty acid methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with CFPP of zero degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 350 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing:Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0006: RME Outright, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Rapeseed methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with minimum CFPP of minus 12 degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 300 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing:Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

EN-BD-0003: RME premium, FOB ARA, $/tonne
Quality: Rapeseed methyl ester conforming to European specification EN14214, with minimum CFPP of minus 12 degrees Celsius, maximum water content of 300 ppm, less than 10 parts per million, compliant with EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)
Location: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Timing:Daily, 4 pm London
Unit: $/tonne

These prices are part of the Fastmarkets Agriculture Oils, Fats and Biofuels prices and news package.

The consultation period for these price amendments begins on Wednesday August 7 and will end on Friday August 30, with changes taking place, subject to market feedback, from Monday September 2.

All historical data relating to the assessment prior to the amendment will remain available in the pricing section of the Fastmarkets website.

To provide feedback on the proposal to amend the above-mentioned price assessments or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter, please contact Misha Simonovska by email at: pricing.ags@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Misha Simonovska, re: European biofuels prices.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

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Private chargers dominate UK’s EV landscape https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/private-chargers-dominate-uks-ev-landscape/ Wed, 17 Jul 2024 11:05:46 +0000 urn:uuid:ade6e00d-b461-4d90-a47e-8eea13961641 Analysis by UK-based industry group ChargeUK shows that there are now more than 930,000 public, home and workplace charging points for electric vehicles (EVs) across the nation, supporting 1.1 million such vehicles

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This figure, published on Monday July 15, means that there is nearly one charger per EV, and indicates that significant strides have been made to support the transition to low-carbon transportation in the UK.

But the analysis highlights the significance of private charging networks, revealing that the UK currently has 809,181 home chargers but only 57,510 workplace chargers.

Research by the Electric Vehicle Association England indicates that 81% of EV owners do most or all their charging at home or at work. Research by the government’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) from 2022 supports this, finding that 30% of respondents used workplace chargers.

ChargeUK’s analysis shows that the total capacity of the UK’s charging network has expanded by more than 115% over the past two years, and now delivers 6.87GW, 165GWh, daily. This capacity would enable every EV in the UK to drive 580 miles per day, far exceeding the average daily journey distance.

Despite that, some consumers were still concerned about the availability of charging points.

Tom Riley, founder of EV sector newsletter The Fast Charge, told Fastmarkets that, with the newly elected Labour government now in power in the UK, the number of people switching to EVs will only increase further, due to the new administration’s promises to accelerate the Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

“While the industry is at present adding enough [charging points] each month to meet supply, and while many owners have home-chargers, that picture will change,” Riley said, “adding pressure on operators and policymakers to deliver the 300,000 chargers that Whitehall has previously said may be needed by 2030.”

The public charging network has also shown remarkable growth, with a 42% annual increase in the past two years. The analysis shows that today there are 64,632 public chargers in the UK.

Notably, the analysis showed that a new public charge point was installed every 26 minutes in the past quarter, indicating a robust deployment pace.

If this rate of growth continues, the UK is projected to have more than 300,000 public chargers by 2030, comfortably supporting the expected increase in EV numbers, according to ChargeUK.

The ratio of EVs to public chargers stands at 17:1, while the ratio to home chargers is 1.4:1, and the overall combined ratio is 1.2:1, indicating nearly one charger for every EV.

In January 2024, the ZEV mandate came into force, setting out the percentage of EVs that manufacturers in the UK must sell each year, increasing to 100% by 2035.

At the end of June 2024, according to latest data from UK electrical charging infrastructure monitor Zapmap, there were 1,140,000 fully electric cars on UK roads and a further 670,000 plug-in hybrids.

Fastmarkets’ automotive suite brings together the vital commercial insights, data and analytics that you need to help you make accurate forecasts, manage inventories and price risk, benchmark costs against your peers’ costs and refine your strategic plans. Find out more today.

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UK RTFC trade posts first 2025 indications as 2023 activity largely done https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/uk-rtfc-trade-posts-first-2025-indications/ Wed, 17 Jul 2024 10:31:00 +0000 urn:uuid:7e87a2a1-d9ba-431b-9022-c19bd9be71e8 Early trade indications for renewable transport fuel certificates for the 2025 compliance year have surfaced for the first time, with initial bids suggesting values might be around parity or slightly discounted compared with current certificates

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This development marks an earlier start for 2025 renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs) compared with last year, when 2024 tickets did not appear until late August.

UK-based oil major BP placed a spread bid for 2024 non-crop RTFCs versus 2025 non-crop at minus 0.75, indicating the first signs of 2025 ticket activity, according to trade sources.

A source told Fastmarkets that 2023 tickets seem “pretty done,” leading market participants to turn their attention to 2024 and 2025 certificates.

Last year’s first offer for 2024 tickets suggested parity with 2023 certificates, with BP offering between 2 million and 5 million 2024 non-crop RTFCs for transfer in March 2025 at 21.5 pence per certificate.

This was consistent with their 2023 certificates, which had bids at 19.5 pence and offers at 21.5 pence per certificate.

The current bid from BP suggests that the market is beginning to look forward, with early signs of 2025 tickets emerging earlier than trade sources had expected.

The bid pitches the value of the non-crop 2024 certificate, which was heard offered on Friday at 19.8 pence per certificate, at a slight discount to the price of the 2025 certificate.

Other trade sources said that the price difference between the 2024 certificate and its 2025 counterpart was heard offered at a premium of 0.25, suggesting 2024 would trade at parity, or a slight discount, to the 2025 certificate.

Fuel blend targets

Under the UK’s Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO), the blend targets and sub-targets continue to evolve annually, aiming to boost the use of non-crop biofuels and advanced biofuels.

Obligated parties under the RTFO can meet their targets either by physically blending biofuels or trading RTFCs, which are generated when sustainable fuels are supplied into the UK market.

Since the beginning of 2024, the UK’s biofuel blend target rose to 14.9% of the entire fuel supply, with a reduction in the contribution from first-generation crop-based biofuels to 3.33%.

The percentage expected from non-crop, largely waste-based feedstocks increased to 10.2%, while development fuels rose to 1.37% from 1.14%.

From January 1, 2025, the overall renewable fuel blend mandate will increase to 15.7% of all fuel supplied, with waste-based fuels supplying 10.9%, crop-based fuels falling to 3.17%, and development fuels rising to 1.6%.

View our feedstock prices

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