Price recap

Prices for magnetic raw materials dropped in unison at the start of the year. By the summer, dysprosium had lost 30% of its value, terbium was down by 27%, and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) had fallen by 17%.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $230-280 per kg on July 18, compared with $350-380 per kg on January 4 (all prices including value-added tax). Terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China dropped to $730-795 per kg on July 11, compared with $980-1,100 per kg on January 4. And prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China slid to $50-52 per kg on June 13, compared with $60-63 per kg on January 4.

Week after week, suppliers attempted to raise offer prices only to be met with weak or absent demand from China’s huge downstream magnet sector. At the end of the summer, sellers reported an increase in purchases and prices began to move up. But the recovery began to lose steam in October and prices started falling again.

Prices for NdPr have partially recovered from the summer lows, last assessed at $55-57 per kg on December 19, down by 9% from the start of 2024. Terbium is now down by 22% from January 4 at $770-850 per kg. But dysprosium prices have fallen further, standing at $220-270 per kg on December 19, a drop of 33% from January 4.

In 2024, only two producers — Chinese state-owned major Northern Rare Earth and Australian major Lynas Rare Earths — said they had been able to retain a positive margin for refining rare earths and both reported steep declines in profits.

“The rare earths industry is swimming in red ink,” industry expert Constantine Karayannopoulos said, referring to the widespread financial losses across the sector.

Near-term outlook

“I don’t expect any major changes coming into Chinese New Year [January 28-February 4], but after the first quarter it could get tough,” Melvin Hill, vice president of GE Chaplin, told Fastmarkets.

This assessment was echoed by Jan Giese, senior manager for rare earths and minor metals at Tradium. “I’m pretty pessimistic for next year at this point. However, I’m not sure it has too much room to fall,” he said.

Lynas Rare Earths gave a downbeat but open-ended assessment in the chairman’s address to the annual general meeting on November 27: “Prices are likely to remain volatile until there is a strengthening in the Chinese economy” — a timely reminder that two-thirds of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnet demand goes into legacy applications that are heavily exposed to China’s housing and construction sector.

But there was some more positive sentiment, particularly further out.

“I am pretty optimistic that by some time in 2025 or the first half of 2026 you will start to see inventories being whittled down and prices starting to increase,” Karayannopoulos said. “Fairly large inventories built up in 2023 and the first half of 2024 because of weaker than expected [magnet] demand caused by relatively negative consumer sentiment and political uncertainty — particularly about EV mandates outside China”.

Magnet demand

Global rare earth magnet demand is expected to keep rising in 2025 — as it has for the past five years — but not as fast as previously expected, according to John Ormerod, head of magnetics at metal consultancy JOC LLC.

“Most experts were looking at a 9% increase by volume next year. But I think we will be closer to 5%,” he said, pointing to the state of the Chinese economy, rare material pricing and the growth and mix of electrified vehicles.

A key theme of 2024 has been the resurgence of hybrids over pure electric. Hybrids also use high-performance NdFeB magnet motors, but with smaller output and using around a third the amount of magnets as a full electric vehicle.

Wildcards

Fundamentally opaque and exposed to political policy risk — the unpredictable nature of rare earth markets has been a constant theme for years. Fastmarkets asked market experts about the broader risks and factors facing the industry next year.

“For me, the really big question for the market next year is Myanmar. The Kachin Independence Army has taken control of the rare earth mining area in Myanmar and China has closed the border. No ammonium sulphate is going in and no rare earths are coming out,” Thomas Kruemmer, founder of The Rare Earths Observer, said.

“Chinese imports of raw materials from Myanmar were 40,000 tonnes during the first nine months of 2024. If that production drops out, there will be a big impact on [heavy] rare earth prices,” he said.

But not everyone agreed. “It has been an unstable situation ever since they started mining down there. I think you would have seen a bigger [price] reaction,” an industry source said. “Now if raw material imports were included in Chinese production quotas, that would have a big impact on supply and really push up prices.”

Imports of rare earth raw materials to China are exempt from the refining and smelting production quotas issued several times a year. Large increases in raw material supply have been cited by some as a factor in the apparent mismatch between supply and demand.

Other industry sources were quick to dispel the notion of a radical policy shake-up, describing such a move as “irrational.”

“I expect the Chinese regulators to try to tighten supply a bit to allow prices to rise to levels allowing more consistent profitability through the supply chain and to make sure the rare earths industry isn’t a subsidy provider to the EV industry in China. It can’t be — it’s too small,” a second industry source said.

US tariffs

“My top concern is that rare earths will get thrown onto the tariff list and they won’t differentiate between neodymium-praseodymium oxide, which the US does produce, and neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide, which it does not,” Hill said. “If you look at the HS codes, a lot of rare earths fall under the same ones. There could be a lot of collateral damage.”

Any discussion of new trade restrictions inevitably raises the question of retaliation, however likely or unlikely it may be.

“If you look at the list of critical materials that China has put under restrictions, there aren’t that many left anymore,” Giese said.

The post What will happen to rare earth markets in 2025? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Our webinar panel, introduced by Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials at Fastmarkets and featuring our experts Connor Watts, Will Adams, Olivier Masson, Rob Searle, Amy Bennett, Muthu Krishna and Luke Sweeney, provided insights into all segments of the battery materials market. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

Battery demand outlook 2025

Connor Watts noted that while EV demand in Europe has fallen, we are now back into positive year-over-year growth. Elsewhere, China has been a key stalwart for EV demand with a 35% year on year increase.  

Watts said: “Some other key trends so far this year have been a continued shift towards LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), particularly in China.” 

“We expect EV demand to continue growing by 16% year-on-year, but the wider battery market is likely to grow much faster than that due to the development of the energy storage market,” he added. 

We expect growth in Europe next year, supported by new emissions regulations and potential positive outcomes from key elections in France and Germany. 

Lithium market looking robust

Will Adams noted that the market has rebalanced somewhat, and lithium carbonate prices have stabilized at about $11/kg with production cuts impacting supply. Cutbacks have led to significant drops in mine production in both China and Australia, but prices currently stand still at about 50% above the lows seen in 2020. 

The outlook for 2025 for lithium however is looking robust, and Adams surmised: “We’re probably going to be stepping in and out of deficits for a while, but as the deficits get closer, look out for the restocking phase as that can really give prices a boost.”  

Nickel market headed for surplus

Despite significant production cuts, the nickel market is expected to register a surplus this year, with the primary nickel demand in batteries growing by around 6% this year. According to Olivier Masson, the outlook for energy storage systems is strong, and he expects the battery sector to lead the demand for nickel in the years ahead.  

He said: “We expect crude stainless steel production to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% to 2028, driven by China and led by 300 series material, which is the high nickel containing stainless steel.” 

Cobalt prices under pressure

There are ongoing challenges in the cobalt market, where oversupply due to weak demand in Western markets and slow manufacturing growth has led to pressure on cobalt prices, according to Rob Searle. Mine supply growth has significantly outpaced demand, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Indonesia. Searle added: “We expect to see a significant surplus in 2024, with bullish and elevated prices in the cobalt market continuing into 2025”. 

Graphite and anode market  

Amy Bennett highlighted the challenges in the graphite market, with prices falling throughout the year and significant competition from the synthetic graphite sector. China’s dominance in the graphite supply chain has increased, with Chinese producers adding and expanding capacity for both natural and synthetic graphite. The market is expected to remain in surplus next year, with some modest price recovery expected as excess supply begins to be absorbed. 

Manganese market  

Manganese sulphate prices have turned bearish in Q4, Rob Searle explained, with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia. “We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” he noted. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity. 

Cell costs and forecasts  

“Falling raw material prices have driven cell costs to historic lows,” said Muthu Krishna, adding that cell costs in China have fallen by up to 60%. He also highlighted that stable prices are critical for long-term sustainable growth in the EV sector. “LFP is well placed to absorb the rise in raw material prices, and must be adopted more aggressively outside China if we are to see the development of more affordable EVs,” he added. 

To learn more about how lithium-ion cell costs are impacting EV costs, read the in-depth report from Muthu Krishna here.

Recycling and black mass  

Finally, Luke Sweeney noted that black mass payables are generally split between Europe and the rest of the world. He highlighted that there’s a huge discount for black mass in Europe because there is almost no refining capacity within Europe, and because the European market has a different regulatory environment, with black mass considered a hazardous waste. 

Due to the global under-supply of black mass, suppliers have a strong negotiating position when it comes to price. We expect the market to become oversupplied with black mass with the rapid growth in end-of-life battery waste availability. 

If you’d like to talk to us about how you can access more insights and market intelligence relating to the BRM market, get in touch today. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

The post Battery raw materials outlook 2025: Robust and rebalancing market appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Germanium is primarily used as a substrate for gallium arsenide solar cells, which are core to space photovoltaic technology.

Each standard satellite requires approximately 6,000 to 15,000 germanium wafers for high-efficiency solar cells, with larger satellites requiring about tens of thousands, according to industry sources.

“A huge demand for germanium wafers in satellites is expected, driven by the rising number of satellite launches. Moreover, the production process involves raw material loss, meaning the supply of germanium wafers won’t scale linearly with the availability of raw materials,” a market source told Fastmarkets. 

Yunnan Germanium, which is a leading germanium and germanium product supplier, has an annual production capacity of 300,000 four-inch germanium wafers and 200,000 six-inch wafers, according to its 2023 annual report.

China has planned several satellite internet constellation projects, some of which have already entered the implementation phase. The total scale of these projects reaches 40,000 satellites, which are expected to contribute market demand for germanium in China, sources said.

The GW constellation, led by China Satellite Network Group, plans to launch 12,992 satellites, as indicated in International Telecommunication Union (ITU)’s data. 

The “Qianfan (G60)” constellation, led by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, with a total scale exceeding 15,000 satellites, began its satellite launches in November 2019. The first 18 satellites were successfully launched in August 2024. 

The G60 Constellation is expected to complete the launch of 108 satellites by the end of 2024, with 648 satellites providing regional network coverage to be launched by the end of 2025. More than 15,000 low Earth orbit satellites are expected to be launched by the end of 2030. The Honghu-3 constellation, which is led by Hongqing Technology, also plans to launch 10,000 satellites, according to ITU’s data.

Meanwhile, major satellite programs in other regions are also advancing. United States-based Starlink program has already launched more than 5,000 low-earth orbit satellites, according to the UCS Satellite Database.

China’s first commercial spaceport, Hainan commercial spaceport, also launched successfully on November 30, according to an announcement from the CNSA on December 1.

Downstream demand may rise across the board, albeit amid supply disruptions

In addition to its application in space solar cells, germanium is also an important material in the fields of infrared optics, fiber optic communications and semiconductors, according to sources.

The increase in germanium prices this year had been linked to rising demand for military infrared devices driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts, sources told Fastmarkets.

China implemented export controls on germanium-related items, which started from August 1, 2023, leading to a sharp decline in exports and a global supply chain disruption, with export levels yet to return to pre-control figures, according to Chinese customs data. 

Germanium was listed among the top 10 priority materials that could face significant supply chain disruption, according to the UK Criticality Assessment published by the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre on November 28, which focused on the vulnerability to supply disruption of minerals in an increasingly diversified UK economy. 

Tighter restrictions on exports of several dual-use items, including licensing restrictions on germanium materials to the US were also announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce and came into effect on Tuesday.

China’s export restrictions have also led to an increase in germanium prices overseas, given that the country is a major supplier in the global market, sources said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs Rotterdam, was $2,850-3,000 per kg on November 29, unchanged from November 27. The price had risen by about 97% from $1,400-1,550 per kg on August 2, 2023.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China was 18,000-19,000 yuan ($2,470-2,607) per kg on November 29, unchanged from a week earlier. The price had climbed by about 76.2% from 10,000-11,000 yuan per kg on June 7.

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