MB-NIO-0001 Nickel ore with 1.8% nickel content, cif China, $/tonne
https://dashboard.fastmarkets.com/p/MB-NIO-0001
Quality: 1.8% Ni, 15-20% Fe, Water content 30-35%, Si:Mg ratio <2
Quantity: 50,000 tonnes
Location: cif China
Unit: USD per tonne
Payment terms: Letter of Credit
Publication: Weekly. Friday 2-3pm London time

This price is a part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

The consultation period for the proposal will start on Friday December 27 and end on Friday January 24, with the amendment, subject to feedback, taking effect from Friday January 31.

To provide feedback on this 1.8% nickel ore price or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Dylan Duan and Laura Li by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Dylan Duan and Laura Li re: nickel ore with 1.8% nickel content, cif China.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Proposal to amend name of nickel ore 1.8% basis 15-20% Fe water content: 30-35% Si:Mg ratio<2 lot size 50,000 tonnes, cif China: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Price recap

Prices for magnetic raw materials dropped in unison at the start of the year. By the summer, dysprosium had lost 30% of its value, terbium was down by 27%, and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) had fallen by 17%.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $230-280 per kg on July 18, compared with $350-380 per kg on January 4 (all prices including value-added tax). Terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China dropped to $730-795 per kg on July 11, compared with $980-1,100 per kg on January 4. And prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China slid to $50-52 per kg on June 13, compared with $60-63 per kg on January 4.

Week after week, suppliers attempted to raise offer prices only to be met with weak or absent demand from China’s huge downstream magnet sector. At the end of the summer, sellers reported an increase in purchases and prices began to move up. But the recovery began to lose steam in October and prices started falling again.

Prices for NdPr have partially recovered from the summer lows, last assessed at $55-57 per kg on December 19, down by 9% from the start of 2024. Terbium is now down by 22% from January 4 at $770-850 per kg. But dysprosium prices have fallen further, standing at $220-270 per kg on December 19, a drop of 33% from January 4.

In 2024, only two producers — Chinese state-owned major Northern Rare Earth and Australian major Lynas Rare Earths — said they had been able to retain a positive margin for refining rare earths and both reported steep declines in profits.

“The rare earths industry is swimming in red ink,” industry expert Constantine Karayannopoulos said, referring to the widespread financial losses across the sector.

Near-term outlook

“I don’t expect any major changes coming into Chinese New Year [January 28-February 4], but after the first quarter it could get tough,” Melvin Hill, vice president of GE Chaplin, told Fastmarkets.

This assessment was echoed by Jan Giese, senior manager for rare earths and minor metals at Tradium. “I’m pretty pessimistic for next year at this point. However, I’m not sure it has too much room to fall,” he said.

Lynas Rare Earths gave a downbeat but open-ended assessment in the chairman’s address to the annual general meeting on November 27: “Prices are likely to remain volatile until there is a strengthening in the Chinese economy” — a timely reminder that two-thirds of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnet demand goes into legacy applications that are heavily exposed to China’s housing and construction sector.

But there was some more positive sentiment, particularly further out.

“I am pretty optimistic that by some time in 2025 or the first half of 2026 you will start to see inventories being whittled down and prices starting to increase,” Karayannopoulos said. “Fairly large inventories built up in 2023 and the first half of 2024 because of weaker than expected [magnet] demand caused by relatively negative consumer sentiment and political uncertainty — particularly about EV mandates outside China”.

Magnet demand

Global rare earth magnet demand is expected to keep rising in 2025 — as it has for the past five years — but not as fast as previously expected, according to John Ormerod, head of magnetics at metal consultancy JOC LLC.

“Most experts were looking at a 9% increase by volume next year. But I think we will be closer to 5%,” he said, pointing to the state of the Chinese economy, rare material pricing and the growth and mix of electrified vehicles.

A key theme of 2024 has been the resurgence of hybrids over pure electric. Hybrids also use high-performance NdFeB magnet motors, but with smaller output and using around a third the amount of magnets as a full electric vehicle.

Wildcards

Fundamentally opaque and exposed to political policy risk — the unpredictable nature of rare earth markets has been a constant theme for years. Fastmarkets asked market experts about the broader risks and factors facing the industry next year.

“For me, the really big question for the market next year is Myanmar. The Kachin Independence Army has taken control of the rare earth mining area in Myanmar and China has closed the border. No ammonium sulphate is going in and no rare earths are coming out,” Thomas Kruemmer, founder of The Rare Earths Observer, said.

“Chinese imports of raw materials from Myanmar were 40,000 tonnes during the first nine months of 2024. If that production drops out, there will be a big impact on [heavy] rare earth prices,” he said.

But not everyone agreed. “It has been an unstable situation ever since they started mining down there. I think you would have seen a bigger [price] reaction,” an industry source said. “Now if raw material imports were included in Chinese production quotas, that would have a big impact on supply and really push up prices.”

Imports of rare earth raw materials to China are exempt from the refining and smelting production quotas issued several times a year. Large increases in raw material supply have been cited by some as a factor in the apparent mismatch between supply and demand.

Other industry sources were quick to dispel the notion of a radical policy shake-up, describing such a move as “irrational.”

“I expect the Chinese regulators to try to tighten supply a bit to allow prices to rise to levels allowing more consistent profitability through the supply chain and to make sure the rare earths industry isn’t a subsidy provider to the EV industry in China. It can’t be — it’s too small,” a second industry source said.

US tariffs

“My top concern is that rare earths will get thrown onto the tariff list and they won’t differentiate between neodymium-praseodymium oxide, which the US does produce, and neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide, which it does not,” Hill said. “If you look at the HS codes, a lot of rare earths fall under the same ones. There could be a lot of collateral damage.”

Any discussion of new trade restrictions inevitably raises the question of retaliation, however likely or unlikely it may be.

“If you look at the list of critical materials that China has put under restrictions, there aren’t that many left anymore,” Giese said.

The post What will happen to rare earth markets in 2025? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

If you have any comments on the discontinuation of the lithium contract prices, please contact Zihao Li or Ewan Thomson by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading: “FAO: Zihao Li/Ewan Thomson re: Lithium contract price discontinuation.”

Please indicate if your comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and, upon request, will make comments not marked as confidential available.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, please go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Discontinuation of lithium contract price assessments: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

MB-CU-0403 Copper grade A cathode premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0380 Copper grade A cathode ER premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0384 Copper grade A cathode SX-EW premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0405 Copper grade A cathode premium, in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0383 Copper grade A cathode ER premium, bonded in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0382 Copper grade A cathode SX-EW premium, bonded in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne

These premiums are a part of the Fastmarkets Base Metals package.

For more information or to provide feedback on the delayed publication of these premiums or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these premiums, please contact Callum Perry by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Callum Perry, re: Copper Shanghai Premiums.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Delayed publication of Shanghai copper premiums appeared first on Fastmarkets.

He employed the use of import tariffs and other duties throughout his first term as president, including on aluminium and steel. And for his second term, Trump is particularly focused on upping the ante on China and has said he plans to introduce new duties “from day one” of taking office on January 20.

To that end, market participants expect the president-elect to come out of the gate all guns blazing – largely because Trump has already outlined his plans to impose a 25% tax on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico, with an additional 10% tariff going on to goods from China, taking those tariffs up to 60%.

Tariffs will stay in place, he wrote on his own social media platform Truth Social, “until the inflow of drugs and illegal immigration into the United States comes to an end.”

He has also talked about a 10% universal tariff on all goods imported into the US, which he said would raise billions to reduce the deficit and allow the government to pay for social and industrial programs.

Whether all these tariffs materialize is another matter, however.

From his statements so far, Trump plans to use some of the proposed tariffs as a bargaining tool to secure leverage on specific measures. That means if Trump secures the concessions he wants, the tariffs might be avoided.

What is not yet clear is whether he will embrace slightly softer “carrot” tactics or double-down on a less conciliatory “stick” approach.

If the incoming US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has anything to do with it, the approach will be more moderate – Bessent has called for tariffs to be “gradual,” and has described the 60% China tariff threat as a “maximalist negotiating position.”

Economists warn that tariffs are also inflationary, would lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, thereby raising the prospect of higher interest rates.

Nonetheless, the consensus is that, whatever else happens, the future Trump administration will implement a 60% tariff against China. Pundits are also broadly betting that the floated 10% universal tariff will come into effect as part of a plan to slash US debt and generate revenues to be used elsewhere.

In theory, a 10% tariff on the $3.1 trillion of goods imported into the United States in 2023 would raise $310 billion. In practise, a universal tariff is likely to have exemptions, such as services and oil & gas, and would reduce import volumes – meaning the overall revenue generated while still impressive, will almost certainly be lower.

Looking to history, the Nixon shock in 1971 saw a 10% surcharge applied to half of all goods, while in 1930, the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act applied to just over half of all goods. Observers have said that a universal tariff is likely to be of a similar order of magnitude, although it’s important to note that both political decisions were key factors leading to subsequent severe economic recessions.

Commodities in focus

Until Trump moves into the White House and action is taken, the “not knowing” is wreaking havoc in the commodity markets, with market participants working to lock-in terms for supply contracts despite have no certainty about the economics behind their deals.

Of course, tariffs aren’t new to the commodities markets and outgoing president Joe Biden kept the Trump-era tariffs in place for China and imposed some more of his own – including a 100% tax on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and a 25% tax on lithium-ion batteries, along with steel and aluminium products.

The US steel market has broadly cheered the prospect of additional tariffs in 2025, having benefited heavily from protectionist measures in Trump’s first term in office.

Steel market participants in Mexico and Canada, however, appear less impressed, and leaders of both countries have already had conversations with Trump in an apparent effort to head off tariffs.

Trump has said that he plans to notify Mexico and Canada of his intention to use the six-year renegotiating provision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to strike better deals – notably with regard to the automotive sector.

For aluminium market participants, it’s déjà vu – all over again.

The US Aluminum Association has already emphasized its view that tariff-free access to the imported Canadian aluminium it so heavily relies on, must be maintained.

It’s an often-overlooked fact that three out of every four cars sold in America contains aluminium from Canada, while one out of every three car and truck wheels manufactured in the US contains aluminium produced in Canada by Rio Tinto. Parts cross the border sometimes more than half-a-dozen times before finishing in a vehicle that ends up in a sales lot in either the US or Canada.

This integrated supply chain has been in existence for decades and provides a competitive advantage to the two countries.

After all, there’s no such thing as an American car – there are US companies, brands and operations, but supply chains are integrated and global.

Tit for tat

As was the case during Trump’s first term, tariffs are likely to lead to retaliatory actions.

In response to tariffs on steel and aluminium during Trump’s first administration, countermeasures were imposed in response. Canada imposed tariffs on aluminium and certain types of American steel as well as yoghurt, whiskey and roasted coffee, while the European Union slapped taxes on products ranging from bourbon to Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Agricultural commodities were very much used as fodder in a tariff war during the first Trump administration, and there’s concern that this situation will be revived.

China hit back against the tariffs with its own taxes on imports of soybeans and pork, a move calculated to weaken Trump’s support among farmers. Since then, China has been diversifying its sources of agricultural commodities, such as corn, soybeans and sorghum – products that it  typically buys from the US.

This time around, the prospect of tariffs on Mexican tequila and beer have been mooted, while Canada could revive its previous tariffs on products including whisky, ketchup, liquorice, and toilet paper, market observers told Fastmarkets.

There is also a risk that the re-routing of goods – when companies export products to the US relabelled via a third country with a lower import tariff – will grow if widespread tariffs are imposed.

This has been common practice in recent years, leading the Biden administration to impose measures to ensure that Mexican aluminium imports had not been smelted or cast in China, Russia, Belarus or Iran and that imported steel from Mexico had been melted or poured in North America.

China still has some powerful weapons in its arsenal, not least its own restrictions on products imported into the US.

China is already crimping supplies to the US of critical minerals on which the latter relies for defence and semi-conductors, such as gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite.

The Asian country could easily expand its restrictions to other products that the US relies on, such as rare earths. Tariffs are a two-way conversation, and China may well have some of its own “trump cards” to play.

In Hotter Commodities, special correspondent Andrea Hotter covers some of the biggest stories impacting the natural resources sector. Sign up today to receive Andrea’s content as it is published.

The post Trump tariffs 2.0 | Hotter Commodities appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets has been publishing the coefficients since April 2019 and both derive from Fastmarkets’ copper concentrates TC/RC index, cif Asia Pacific, which prices the mid-point of the market.

The proposed index coefficient specifications are as follows (changes in italics):

MB-CU-0422 – Copper concentrates counterparty spread, $/tonne
Quality: Cu (%) base 26, max 37, min 18; Au (g/dmt) base 1.1, max30; Ag (g/dmt) base 75, max 350; S (%) Base 32, max 38, min 20; Fe (%) base 28, max 35, min 15; Pb (%) base 0.07, max 4; Zn (%) base 1, max 4; As (%) base 0.17 max 2; Sb (%) base 0.018, max 0.2; Hg (ppm) base 2.5, max 10; Bi (ppm) base 145, max 2,000
Quantity: Minimum 5,000 dry metric tonnes
Location: CIF Asia Pacific
Unit: USD/tonne
Publication:Fortnightly, Friday before 4pm UK time.
Notes: The counterparty spread price will measure, in $/tonne, the net gap between the average smelters purchases price and the traders purchase price for copper concentrate TCs.

MB-CU-0423 – Copper concentrates copper VIU, $/tonne
Quality: Cu (%) base 26, max 37, min 18; Au (g/dmt) base 1.1, max30; Ag (g/dmt) base 75, max 350; S (%) Base 32, max 38, min 20; Fe (%) base 28, max 35, min 15; Pb (%) base 0.07, max 4; Zn (%) base 1, max 4; As (%) base 0.17 max 2; Sb (%) base 0.018, max 0.2; Hg (ppm) base 2.5, max 10; Bi (ppm) base 145, max 2,000
Quantity: Minimum 5,000 dry metric tonnes
Location: cif Asia Pacific
Unit: USD/tonne
Publication:Fortnightly, Friday before 4pm UK time.
Notes: The copper VIU price measures the value-in-use in $/tonne of one extra percentage point of copper in a parcel of concentrates.

The consultation period for this proposed amendment starts from Friday December 20 and will end on January 22. The amendment will then take place, subject to market feedback, on January 24.

These prices are part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

To provide feedback on these prices or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact Sally Zhang and/or Albert MacKenzie by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Sally Zhang/Albert MacKenzie, re: the frequency of two copper concentrates index coefficients.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Proposal to increase the frequency of two copper concentrates index coefficients appeared first on Fastmarkets.

“Primarily, soybean oil is now available at a considerable discount among four vegetable oils (palm oil, soybean oil, sunoil and rapeseed oil) thanks to strong soybean crops in North and South America. The election of [Donald] Trump as US President has also raised questions about US biofuel policy, pushing out excessive soybean oil from the US markets via export routes,” Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegoils broker Sunvin Group, told Fastmarkets.

Over the past month, export prices for sunflower oil have fallen by around 7-10%, or $80-130 per tonne, depending on the destination. On Tuesday December 17, according to Fastmarkets’ sources, sunflower oil was offered at an average of $1,160 per tonne CIF Mersin and CIF India, delivery in December-January.

Prices from European buyers have fallen by $80-90 per tonne, or almost 7%, over the past month to $1,180-1,190 per tonne CIF Seville, delivery in January-February. Prices have stabilized on the sellers’ side, while buyers are not showing interest.

“Relatively high prices for sunflower oil have reduced consumer demand for it for a period of time, while cheap soybean oil is putting pressure on sunflower oil in destinations where they can replace each other,” Sergiy Repetskyi, managing partner of Sunstone Brokers, said.

The spread between India soybean oil and sunflower oil this week reached $95 per tonne for January delivery, sources told Fastmarkets. On Tuesday, the spread has significantly narrowed to an average of $30 per tonne as a result of the continuing decline in vegoil prices.

On Tuesday, soybean oil was offered at $1,132-1,150 per tonne CFR India for delivery in January, depending on origin, and sunflower oil was offered at $1,160 per tonne CIF India for delivery in December-January, according to Fastmarkets’ sources.

Ukrainian sellers attempt to keep prices high, despite external pressures

For a long time, Ukrainian sellers have been trying to keep sunflower oil offer prices high, given the high cost of processed raw materials and low availability of seeds due to weak sales by farmers.

However, aggressive offers of Russian sunflower oil and the willingness to sell it cheaper have put additional pressure on the market, especially in Turkey.

“At origins, we see no super stock but a good enough volume, which is looking at demand on the spot and prices are under pressure as sellers want to move their stock before the New Year,” Repetskyi said.

“Turkey is well covered for the short term. There is still demand for the first quarter of 2025, and many Russian sellers have scared off buyers, but this is a typical buyer tendency to wait and see while the market is coming down,” Onat Angi, chairman of the Solventum brokerage.

“As soon as Russian sellers started dumping spot to avoid a higher export tax in January, they triggered a sales rush and scared off buyers in all directions,” the chairman added.

At the same time, a number of sources suggest a resumption of price growth after the New Year holidays, and one reason cited is the reduction in crushing by Ukrainian plants due to the suspension of processing or due to negative margins.

“Black Sea crush will slow down for the Christmas and New Year period first due to poor coverage of the plants. Most likely, we will not see much activity from buyers before January 10,” Repetskyi said.

According to Ukrainian customs statistics, sunflower oil exports from September to December 16 amounted to 1.5 million tonnes at the beginning of the 2024/25 season, which is in line with last year’s level for the same period.

According to Ukrainian analytical agency APK-Inform, sunflower exports in the 2024/25 marketing year could amount to 5.5 million tonnes.

However, some market sources doubt this figure, given the low sunflower harvest in Ukraine and estimated exports at 5.1 million tonnes.

The post Black Sea sunflower oil prices fall at least 7% over past month, continue to decline appeared first on Fastmarkets.

In September, Fastmarkets launched western softwood GMA Grade A pallet prices in six key delivered markets: Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth and New York City. This price data and analytics service, the first of its kind in industry, can help any entity dealing with palletized cargo to understand how market shifts will impact their business.

Here, we take a look back on the first three months of price data to understand three key trends in the market and how these impact the price of pallets, an essential component of global supply chains.

Three key trends

• The results of the US presidential election, and President-elect Donald Trump’s subsequent tariff announcement
• Oversupply in the used pallet market
• Seasonal push across the holiday season

September pallet price data

The first edition of the pallet newsletter came as the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting in September 2024, setting the stage for US housing starts to bounce back after July 2024 had the lowest housing starts since June 2020.

Overall, trends that dominated over the summer held as the bulk of unmodified or unenhanced GMA pallets in the Seattle market traded in an $11.00-13.00 per pallet range with premium GMA pallets trading in the $15.00-17.00 range. Over the course of September, market participants continued to report that those ranges remained in place for months. 

Producers reported persistently underwhelming production of new softwood GMA A-grade 48×40 pallets with ample availability for prompt delivery. Some sources reported a slight uptick in agricultural sector purchasing and some specialty manufacturers noted a pickup following the rate cut decision. However, the new GMA pallet sector continued to lag. Most producers reported that they did not expect a significant change this calendar year.

In most key delivered markets, mills continued to struggle against ample availability of $5.00-7.00 “good to average” condition used pallets. Market participants reported that used pallet inventories were diminishing, but estimates of these inventories were wide ranging. 

October pallet price data

In October, the National Retail Federation projected a 3% increase in holiday sales from the year prior, one of the first indications of how busy the 2024 holiday season would be. The October edition of the pallet newsletter analysed how this outlook would impact the market amid an increasingly saturated market for used pallets.

Alongside the forecasted holiday uptick, western softwood US pallet manufacturers continued to face steep competition from alternative species and an oversupplied used pallet market. 

Fastmarkets assessed pallets, western softwood, GMA A-grade delivered Seattle at $11.00-17.00 per pallet on October 30. This was unchanged from recent weeks. However, the other major market in the western softwood producing region, San Francisco, was another story. 

Fastmarkets assessed pallets, western softwood, GMA A-grade delivered San Francisco at $10.50-16.50 per pallet on October 30. This assessment reflects a -$0.75 decline to the low and high of the previous range.

While local low-grade lumber prices have remained fairly stable for the last month, competition from alternative species and a competitive used market resulted in some manufacturers lowering prices. Good quality used B-grade pallets and excellent quality block pallets were offered from $8-10 in the downtown San Francisco area.

Although most producers did not report changes in their assessments of the market, comparable erosion in asking prices were observed in Chicago, Los Angeles and Dallas-Fort Worth, with comparable B-grade and off-spec pallets available at competitive prices below recent western softwood basic unmodified GMA Grade-A 48×40 pallet rates.

At present, there is ample availability of new western softwood pallets on the market for prompt delivery. Low-grade western softwood producers reported that while agricultural and manufacturing purchases have picked up slightly in the last month, they have encountered resistance from pallet producers who are hemmed in by current market conditions.

Further complicating matters, tightness in the green Fir market pushed more western softwood pallet producers to the dry market. This corresponded with reports from dry low-grade manufacturers who recently noted a slight uptick in sales volumes to the pallet sector.

November pallet price data

The most recent edition of the newsletter followed the results of the US presidential election and President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, including insights into the lessons to be learnt from the fallout of Trump’s 2018 tariff increases.

Overall, western softwood US pallet manufacturers reported a seasonal uptick in demand as holiday retail sales picked up and buyers turned their attention to Q1 2025. Fastmarkets assessed pallets, western softwood, GMA A-grade delivered Seattle at $11.00-17.00 per pallet on November 27, unchanged from the previous month.

While producers benefited from an uptick in sales, recent pushback on prices due to the continued glut of used and lower-quality pallets stymied any significant upward momentum. The other major market in the western softwood producing region, San Francisco, also remained stable this month.

Fastmarkets assessed pallets, western softwood, GMA A-grade delivered San Francisco at $10.50-16.50 per pallet on November 27.

Competition from used and lower-quality pallets remained steep. Good quality used B-grade pallets and excellent quality block pallets were offered from $8-10 in the downtown San Francisco area.

Trading ranges narrowed in New York City and Dallas-Fort Worth as lower-priced Southern Yellow Pine hit the market.

Fastmarkets assessed pallets, western softwood, GMA A-grade delivered New York at $10.50-16.50 per pallet on November 27, a $0.75 decline to the low and a $1.75 decline to the high over the previous month.

Producers in these regions faced steeper competition from alternative grades in addition to lower-priced Southern Yellow Pine. Good quality B-Grade pallets were readily available at significant discounts, capping profits. Multiple producers reported switching to Southern Yellow Pine this month as it became more readily available.

In addition to the seasonal retail holiday spike, buyers reported that they are turning their attention to Q1 of next year. With a new administration and tariffs looming, numerous large pallet buyers decided to make extra purchases to prepare for an uptick as next year’s activity gets underway.

Conclusion

The first three months of pallet price data was influenced by the used pallet market, which has been in a state of oversupply in recent months. Competition from the used pallet market resulted in some manufacturers lowering prices.

The results of the US presidential election have also had a significant impact on market sentiment following President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of planned tariffs for on imports to the US from certain countries.

Finally, holiday retail sales have continued to pick up over the last three months. The 2024 holiday season is shaping up to be the busiest since 2021, driven by record spending forecasts and a projected 3% increase in holiday sales from the year prior, according to the National Retail Federation.

At Fastmarkets, our price data, analysis and forecasting helps you to navigate dynamic markets and stay ahead of price fluctuations. Speak to one of our experts today to find out more.

The post Three key factors impacting our pallet price data appeared first on Fastmarkets.

This price is part of Fastmarkets’ US Animal Proteins package.

For more information or to provide feedback on this correction notice, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Chloe Krimmel by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Chloe Krimmel re: feathermeal, AL/GA.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Correction to feathermeal, fob Alabama/Georgia on December 17 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

At the time, Fastmarkets asked market participants whether the export curbs were a political symbol or a real threat. The timing of the announcement — shortly after the US had announced fresh export restrictions on advanced chipmaking to China — led some market participants to suggest the move was part of a technology and trade war tit-for-tat.

A year and half later, the same question persists.

China announced on Tuesday December 3 that it was tightening its existing export controls on gallium and germanium (and antimony and graphite, which were covered in subsequent export controls), explicitly prohibiting shipments of both metals to the US.

The decision raised new concerns in the market and the media due to the criticality of these metals across a variety of high-tech and particularly chipmaking sectors. The United States Geological Survey report published in November estimated that a total ban of exports of gallium and germanium from China could cost the US economy about $3.4 billion in economic output.

Again, the timing of the new announcement — the day after the US announced a new wave of restrictions targeting China’s chipmaking sector — raised concerns among market participants about geopolitical posturing.

And the fact that direct exports of gallium and germanium from China have de-facto been blocked to the US since the export control first came into effect also raised questions. China’s customs data shows no exports of either metal to the US since the control was implemented.

This has led some market participants to believe that there will be little difference under the new tightened regime, Fastmarkets heard.

“Technically speaking, nothing should change… [China] just officialized something that they were already doing,” a European trader said.

Indeed, the impact on gallium and germanium prices in European markets was limited following Tuesday’s announcement.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam was $470-550 per kg on December 6, flat on the session before and since November 8.

But gallium market participants in Europe faced difficulty in finding offers, with stockholders saying they were staying on the sidelines to assess the effects of a tighter implementation of China’s export controls.

Fastmarkets’ price for germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam was $2,900-3,000 per kg on December 6, narrowing up by $50 per kg from $2,850-3,000 per kg in the previous session on December 4.

Germanium supply in Europe has been tight for some time, however, and that price increase was not related to panic in the market, but to a continuation of the tightness, sources told Fastmarkets.

Closing loopholes

Although market participants said that an effective prohibition on exporting material to the US was already in place, some questioned whether the new announcement may be targeting indirect exports of Chinese material into the US.

The latest announcement warned that violations of the measure would lead to legal consequences, particularly for parties transferring or providing these items to US entities without authorization.

Data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) shows the country has been importing some gallium and germanium of Chinese origin.

The US has imported some 1.1 tonnes of China-origin gallium and 4.5 tonnes of China-origin germanium since the export control first came into effect last year, according to the data, which is available up to October of this year.

Per the US Census Department, the country of origin refers to where the goods were produced or where they underwent a tariff classification change indicating a “substantial transformation.”

The data therefore does not necessarily reflect that the US is somehow indirectly importing material from China; instead, it could be buying material from pre-export-control stocks in Europe and elsewhere, when exports from China did not require end-user documentation.

Either way, the initial implementation of China’s export control required foreign buyers to identify their material’s end-user before receiving a license to ship material, before exports were considered on a case-by-case basis. The end-user classification is understood to refer to someone transforming material to a sufficient extent to change its relevant customs code.

That classification would likely make any entity exporting gallium or germanium recycling feedstock from China and refining that into metal as an end user, even if they are then shipping that metal to the US, market participants told Fastmarkets.

But they questioned how practical enforcing an export control lower down the value chain could be, while warning it could lead midstream gallium and germanium consumers exercise more caution in their sales into the US if they are sourcing metal from China.

“Are you going to risk your China sourcing ability for a small US sale?” a second European trader said.

China-based exporters said it was too early to say how the tighter export controls would affect shipments in the long run, although they warned of longer processing times for exports to be approved due to extra due diligence requirements.

Some market participants have reported that processing times for exports have been longer anyway. Exports of gallium were initially frozen when the export control came into effect, but, since then, shipments have been to close to their historic volumes.

Furthermore, in October, the most recent month for which China’s trade flow data is available, gallium exports declined precipitously, leading some sources to ponder that tighter due diligence requirements were already being placed on shipments.

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