For example, Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea averaged $10.56-11.33 per kg in the month of November 2024 to date, down sharply from $19.91-21.32 per kg one year before.

“The market is in a dip, and my question is when it will rebound. [It] will take off, but not so soon as we would have liked,” Nils Steinbrecher, managing director of Korean-owned recycler SK tes EMEA, said.

“Margins have taken a hit, and the feedstock prices have not gone as low as the commodity prices,” Chetan Jain, senior vice president of business development at major Indian recycler Lohum, said.

In the wake of the economic difficulties, major recycling European market participants such as large minerals firm Eramet, chemicals giant BASF and major metals producer Umicore have either delayed or cancelled their expansions into battery recycling markets over recent months.

But there is significant growth in volumes of scrap batteries expected in the coming years, Fastmarkets research data shows.

While the total supply of battery scrap and end-of-life batteries in Europe is forecast at 96,000 tonnes in 2024, that is forecast to rise to 252,000 tonnes in five years’ time, according to Fastmarkets’ research team.

Learn more about the outlook for battery scrap in 2025 as well as other key segments of the battery materials market, including lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, when you watch our recent webinar. Simply fill in the form here to view the full global outlook for 2025.

Ecobat Solutions

One firm that has been busy opening lithium-ion battery recycling plants over the last year is major lead acid battery recycler Ecobat.

Its lithium battery shredding plant in Hettstedt, Germany, has been operational since 2023, and the company targets its shredding capacity will exceed 10,000 tonnes per year in the coming years, Tom Seward, EU key accounts director, Ecobat Solutions, said on Monday November 25.

Ecobat Solutions also set up a battery shredding pant in Arizona, US, as of 2023.

Ecobat’s UK lithium-ion battery pre-treatment plant in Darlaston, in the West Midlands, is currently being commissioned and will have a total planned input capacity exceeding 22,000 tonnes per year, according to Seward.

The company remains committed to producing black mass and not further refining the material, Seward said. The approach is consistent with plans laid out by former Ecobat Solutions vice president of global sales, Elliott Ethridge, in a Fastmarkets interview published in January 2024.

SungEel HiTech

South Korean recycling major SungEel HiTech was represented at the event by Soochul Park, managing director of SungEel Europe & Hungary.

Following the company’s recent expansion of hydrometallurgical capacity with the opening of its third hydro center in South Korea earlier this year, it is planning to further expand across Europe, Park said.

SungEel HiTech already operates pre-processing shredding plants for recycling lithium-ion batteries in Hungary and Poland, but the company is actively looking to expand into post-treatment refining capacity on the continent.

“The European Union will restrict black mass exports, so we will need to set up [hydrometallurgical capacity] in Europe,” he said.

SungEel could need as many as three hydrometallurgical post-treatment plants in Europe over the coming years, according to Park, with countries such as Hungary, Germany and France under consideration.

European Commission lawmakers have proposed a reclassification of black mass and lithium-ion battery scrap under waste codes, which is expected to halt exports of the materials from Europe to non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries once implemented.

Although South Korea as an OECD member country can legally import hazardous waste black mass, the Basel notification process can be time-consuming and costly, according to market participants.

Most producers of black mass in Europe are categorized as makers of hazardous waste material. Difficulty and expense in moving the material means they generally attract lower payables than material classified as product-spec black mass.

Fastmarkets’ latest assessments of the black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, nickel, domestic, exw Europe, % payable LME Nickel cash official price and the black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, cobalt, domestic, exw Europe, % payable Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end) were 55-62% on Wednesday November 20, both unchanged since October 30.

Huayou Recycling

Chinese cobalt giant Huayou is another major company looking to make a splash with new western recycling capacity, Wei Zhang, managing director Europe and North America, Huayou Recycling, said on Tuesday November 26.

The company already has a major recycling operation in China with around 65,000 tonnes of input capacity for batteries, with capability to make 12,000 tonnes of nickel and cobalt sulfate, he said.

Huayou operates precursor cathode active materials (P-CAM) and CAM production in China and is building a CAM production site in Hungary.

It is also part of the joint venture which set up and operates the POSCO HY Clean Metal hydrometallurgical post-treatment plant in South Korea, which started commercial production in 2023.

But Huayou is also in discussions to set up hydrometallurgical post-treatment capacity for black mass in Europe, according to Zhang, with a decision on how the company will proceed expected by next year.

“The goal is not possible [currently] in Europe for a fully integrated system,” Zhang said, but he added that any upbuild in capacity would certainly require partnerships with local European companies.

“The recycling market still remains challenging, but there are opportunities,” he said. “If we do something here in Europe, we would like to be careful and serious.”

Huayou is also looking to set up black mass refining operations in the US, but timeframes on that were less clear, Zhang added.

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According to the company’s third-quarter earnings report, Li-Cycle successfully completed the Rochester Hub internal technical review under the proposed mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) scope and expects annual production of up to approximately 8,250 tonnes of lithium carbonate and up to approximately 72,000 tonnes of MHP. The project’s nameplate processing capacity remains at 35,000 tonnes per year of black mass.

The company had recently announced a 100% off-take agreement with Glencore for the facility’s MHP production on October 31, which Li-Cycle said at the time was a step that could support the company’s efforts to finalize the DOE loan.

“We believe the completion of the DOE loan agreement and the continued support from partners like Glencore are strong endorsements of our technology, business model and the key role that Li-Cycle will play to support the shift to electrification,” Ajay Kochhar, Li-Cycle president and chief executive officer, said in the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Thursday.

“We also thank the DOE for their continued support and are grateful for the bipartisan support for lithium-ion battery recycling and how it can underpin the development of a strong domestic battery supply chain,” Kochhar said.

Rochester Hub Cost to Completion

The company estimates the total capital cost of the Rochester Hub project through to mechanical completion to be approximately $960 million, with the current remaining estimated cost to complete at approximately $487 million.

According to Li-Cycle’s November 7 loan announcement, the loan will reach final maturity in March 2040, representing an approximately 15-year term, with a grace period on scheduled principal repayments until June 15, 2027. Interest during the construction period of the Rochester Hub can be capitalized up to $30 million, instead of being paid in cash.

But prior to the first advance under the DOE loan facility, the company must complete its base equity contribution (BEC) to the Rochester Hub project, which includes “settling certain existing commitments relating to the project for costs incurred but not yet paid” — totaling approximately $94 million — as of the end of the third quarter of 2024, and “funding approximately $173 million in reserve account requirements, of which up to approximately $97 million” can be satisfied through credit.

According to the announcement, these amounts “represent a significant portion of the remaining BEC” and “are among other components of the BEC that will need to be satisfied prior to first advance.”

“Throughout 2024, one of Li-Cycle’s primary objectives has been to finalize negotiations with the DOE in order to enter into definitive documentation to obtain a DOE loan. Securing the DOE Loan Facility through our close collaboration with the DOE is a critical step toward our goal of restarting construction at the Rochester Hub project,” Kochhar said of the loan announcement.

“We believe [the DOE loan] will also enhance our financial flexibility and support our mission to create a sustainable, closed-loop battery supply chain, which is vital to the electrification transition and securing energy independence in North America,” he added.

According to the company’s third quarter 10-Q SEC filing, the company is “actively exploring additional financing and strategic alternatives for a complete funding package needed to restart construction at the Rochester Hub (of which the DOE Loan Facility is a key component) and for general corporate purposes. The funding package would assist in satisfying the conditions required to draw against the DOE Loan Facility, including funding the remaining [BEC].”

But, the 10-Q went on to say, “there can be no assurance that the company will be able to secure additional funding at attractive commercial terms, or at all.”

“Furthermore, any additional financing, including the recent Glencore…investment, and any borrowings that become available under the DOE Loan Facility, and any future sales made” under the equity offering program for offer and sale of common shares as part of the At The Market Issuance Sales Agreement between Li-Cycle and B. Riley Securities Inc. in June 2024 [ATM Program], “may be insufficient to provide adequate liquidity for ongoing operations, to fund the company’s future growth or capital projects, including the Rochester Hub, or otherwise satisfy any of the company’s funding needs and obligations,” the 10-Q stated.

Both DOE and Glencore loans/funding “have, or will have restrictive covenants that significantly limit the company’s operating and financial flexibility or its ability to obtain future funding. In addition, there are inherent risks associated with the company’s ability to execute its growth strategy. There can be no assurance that the company will develop the manufacturing capabilities and processes, secure reliable sources of component supply to meet quality, engineering, design or production standards, or meet the required production volumes to grow into a viable, cash-flow-positive business successfully,” according to the 10-Q.

Following the securing of additional financing alternatives, the Rochester Hub will be subject to the completion of the company’s comprehensive review and updated final investment decision before construction at the Hub begins again, according to the company’s third-quarter earnings presentation.

The loan announcement comes at a time when market sources have expressed concern regarding future funds for the industry, following the results of the 2024 US presidential election. But, the company’s third-quarter presentation said, there is “bipartisan support for building a domestic battery supply chain for economic and national security interests.”

Stronger quarterly results

The company’s third-quarter earnings report noted that Li-Cycle is continuing to implement spoke optimization initiatives, which it believes “will improve cash flows at its Generation 3 spokes in Arizona, Alabama and Germany, with a view to establishing a self-sufficient and financially accretive spoke business.”

The company announced it had achieved strong year-over-year revenue growth in its quarterly earnings, with total revenue reaching $8.4 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared with $4.7 million in the same quarter of 2023. The company cited the revenue increase as a result of higher recycling services revenue, totaling $4 million in the quarter, versus $1.2 million in the same period of 2023.

In the three months ended September 30, Li-Cycle sold a total of 1,989 tonnes of black mass and equivalents, up from 892 tonnes in the same 2023 period. In the first nine months of the year, the company sold a total of 4,190 tonnes, up from 3,866 tonnes sold over the first nine months of 2023.

The company noted in the 10-Q report that the increase in recycling service revenue was primarily due to new service contracts entered into in 2024 in addition to the Germany spoke operations that began in August 2023.

These increases have helped offset declining nickel and cobalt prices in 2024. The company’s 10-Q report showed average market price per tonne for the nine months ended September 30 as $25,807 for cobalt and $17,079 for nickel. These prices are down significantly since the same 2023 period, when the average price per tonne was $33,363 for cobalt and $23,574 for nickel.

These declines have led the declining payables and demand in the black mass market, as refiners have struggled to operate amid thinner and thinner margins.

Li-Cycle produced 4,172 tonnes of black mass and equivalents in the first nine months of 2024, down from 4,891 tonnes in the same 2023 period. The 10-Q reported cited the decrease as a result of the slowdown of operations at the company’s North American spokes, but was offset by an increase in European spoke operations.

As of September 30, the company has 4 operational spokes: New York, with a mainline material processing capacity of 5,000 tpy, and Arizona, Alabama, and Germany, each with material processing capacities of 10,000 tpy.

Despite these competing factors, Kochhar noted that long-term fundamentals for the battery recycling industry remain strong.

“We continue to believe strongly in this market and the role that we will play in energy and critical material independence,” Kochhar said.

Fastmarkets’ battery raw materials suite combines the vital commercial insights, data, news and analytics you need to make accurate forecasts, manage inventories and price risks and benchmark costs against your peers. Head to our BRM hub to learn more.

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US scrap battery volumes to increase

The funding for battery recycling efforts comes at at time when US scrap battery volumes are expected to increase exponentially over the coming decade. In the US, 87,000 tonnes of battery scrap are expected to be available for recycling in 2024, and this tonnage is expected to increase by approximately 488% by 2034, according to estimates from Fastmarkets’ research team.
 
According to the DOE, as of 2023, the US had enough domestic battery recycling capacity to reclaim only 35,500 short tons of battery materials per year, with more facilities planned in the subsequent two to four years to reclaim an additional 76,000 short tons of material per year.

Amid these estimated increases, the DOE’s efforts under the BIL have worked to increase US supply chain resiliency, research new innovations in battery technology and decrease costs through methods like recycling.

The announcement also came mere days before the 2024 US presidential election, though many US market sources have expressed confidence in recent weeks that, while speed and some policy direction may change, efforts from the federal government to secure supply chains and build manufacturing capacity within the country will continue.

“Energy security is something that’s…[of] national interest. It doesn’t matter [who wins the presidential election], that’s still going to be a priority [for] whoever is in the White House,” Michael O’Kronley, chief executive officer of Ascend Elements during the “Walking the Tightrope: Business Model Impacts as Lithium Transitions from Specialty Chemical to Global Commodity” session at The Battery Show in Detroit on October 8.

“You can’t put the genie back in the bottle,” was a phrase numerous attendees at the Battery Show said, meaning that while federal leadership may change, the building of the battery supply chains is now too advanced to turn back or fully stop.

“We’re spending a lot of time speaking to people on both sides of the aisle, whether you’re talking to people who believe in energy transition, or people who promote energy addition. Everyone cares about domestic energy security and breaking our reliance on China,” David Park, CEO of Standard Lithium said at the session.

“A lot of the policies that may have been enacted in the past, they may shift or change a little bit, but the overall view is that they want a local domestic supply chain built in the United States. It does produce manufacturing jobs, and that’s what every politician wants, the ability to have more jobs.” O’Kronley said.

Though some market sources have noted hesitancy in moving forward before the election, there have been expectations that after the election, once leadership has been decided, companies will be more willing to act given a clearer idea of policy direction.

“I think the November election certainly has a big impact…the uncertainty in and around the outcome [has] driven big capital project decisions to kind of hold back for the last 12-15 months, especially from foreign countries looking to bring the supply chain to North America.” Alex Holmes, chief operating officer at Nano One Materials Corp said during the session. “But getting through the election will then help the supply chain to understand where to deploy the capital.”

Funding awardees announced October 31 were Siemens Corporation, Tennessee Technological University, B2U Storage Solutions Inc, Caterpillar Inc, General Motors LLC, ReJoule Incorporated, Rochester Institute of Technology, and the University of Akron.

The DOE announcement stated that “selection for award negotiations is not a commitment by DOE to issue an award or provide funding. Before funding is issued, DOE and the applicants will undergo a negotiation process, and DOE may cancel award negotiations and rescind the selection for any reason during that time.”

The DOE released a notice of intent for a third phase of funding for EV recycling and reuse projects of up to $70 million in September, with a tentative funding opportunity announcement in December 2024.

Discover how the 2024 US election is impacting and could impact US and global commodity markets with Fastmarkets. Head to our US election hub.

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It is jointly owned by several industry giants, namely China Baowu Steel, China Petrochemical Corporation and China Resources Group – which will own 20% equity each, as well as the Aluminum Corporation of China and China Minmetals Corporation – which will own 10% equity each.

The new entity will consolidate relevant assets and businesses of state-owned central enterprises through market-oriented restructuring and integration, the CRRG’s chairman Liu Yu said in the announcement.

It aims to become a comprehensive solution provider, covering various key renewable resource recycling categories, including warehousing, processing, distribution, recycling, standard setting, and output, Liu said.

To achieve this, China Resources Recycling Group plans to establish several specialized subsidiaries. These subsidiaries will focus on areas such as scrap steel recycling, electronic waste recycling, new energy vehicle battery recycling, wind and solar equipment recycling, non-ferrous metal recycling, and plastic waste recycling, according to the announcement.

By leveraging its position as a leading enterprise, the company aims to drive standardization and orderly development of the industry, particularly supporting smaller and medium-sized enterprises, according to the statement.

Boost in scrap demand expected but tight supply could limit upside potential: sources

So far, the lack of details on the company’s specific plans has led to uncertainty among market participants, sources told Fastmarkets.

While some market participants anticipate a boost in scrap demand and improved standardization of scrap grades, others fear that tight supply and weak downstream sectors may limit upside potential in the short term, sources said.

“With a lack of details available, it’s still too early to tell how the new enterprise will impact the market. But of course, long-term scrap demand is expected to grow,” a Chinese copper scrap trader told Fastmarkets.

Copper scrap has grown increasingly pivotal for Chinese smelters in the face of tightening copper concentrate supply, according to sources.

“But whether or not China can bring in the material also largely depends on arbitrage conditions and customs checks, but long delays and huge losses have been limiting scrap imports,” the trader added.

Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment of the No1 copper material, RCu-2A,1B (candy/berry), cif China, LME/Comex discount was 13-21 cents per lb on September 30, narrowing by 1-2 cents per lb from 14-23 cents per lb on August 26.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding monthly assessment of the No2 copper material, RCu-2B (birch/cliff), cif China, LME/Comex discount was 21-34 cents per lb on September 30, narrowing by 2-3 cents per lb from 23-37 cents per lb a month earlier.

There are expectations among market participants the establishment of the new SOE is unlikely to alleviate downstream demand issues, sources said.

Concerns over the flagging construction and automotive sectors have also been crimping aluminium alloy and scrap demand, sources told Fastmarkets.

China’s passenger vehicle sales posted five straight months of decline before logging a recovery in September, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CAPA).

Market participants Fastmarkets spoke to attribute the uptick in sales to the central government’s trade-in policy to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement.

The policy is largely expected to improve scrap collection and drive transitions to new energy vehicles, which is a key downstream sector for nonferrous scrap consumption.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for aluminium alloy ADC12, exw dp China, was 20,000-20,300 yuan per tonne on Wednesday October 23, unchanged from a week earlier. Prices have been hovering around 20,000-20,300 yuan per tonne levels since late September.

Meanwhile, new home prices were down for the 15th straight month in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. A sluggish construction sector tends to dampen buying appetite for rebar, and consequently ferrous scrap, sources said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel scrap heavy scrap, domestic, delivered mill China was 2,510-2,620 yuan per tonne on October 25, unchanged from a week earlier, after falling by 50-70 yuan per tonne from 2,560-2,690 yuan per tonne in the prior week.

China’s decarbonization push

The Chinese government has often highlighted the importance of scrap usage for the country’s decarbonization goals, sources said.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans in 2021 to grow the country’s steel scrap consumption to over 300 million tonnes by the end of 2025 and have 15% of its total crude steel output produced by electric arc furnaces (EAFs). As of August this year, around 10% of China’s steel output is produced by EAFs.

China retained its position as the world’s largest user of recycled steel in the first half of 2024, according to the latest quarterly report by the Bureau of International Recycling published on October 8.

Its recycled steel scrap consumption came in at 122.54 million tonnes in the first half of 2024, up by 5.4% year on year in the first half of 2024 to 122.54 million tonnes, despite a 1.1% decline in the country’s crude steel production to 530.57 million tonnes the same period, BIR data showed.

For nonferrous scrap, the NDRC is aiming to grow scrap utilisation to 20 million tonnes by 2025, with a breakdown of 4 million tonnes of copper scrap, 11.5 million tonnes of aluminium scrap and 2.9 million tonnes of lead scrap.

The Chinese government had also renewed its commitment in July to raising secondary aluminium usage in its latest action plan to tackle high carbon emissions from the sector.

In the same month, China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment called for comments on new draft regulations that would allow for more imports of recycled copper, aluminium and alloy raw materials.

Industry players have welcomed the raft of measures, with China’s ten largest copper producers by volume pledging in 2022 to have recycled copper make up 25% of their total production by 2025.

China’s total output of recycled nonferrous metals came in at 9.6 million tonnes from January to June in 2024, up by 8.8% from the same period a year earlier, according to a separate BIR report published on October 10.

Output for aluminium scrap totaled 5.2 million tonnes, up by 11.8% year on year, while copper scrap totaled 2.25 million tonnes, up by 10.8% from a year earlier, followed by lead scrap which totaled 1.5 million tonnes, up by 1.4% in the same period.

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Its expansion comes after investments into the company by SQM Lithium Ventures, the corporate venture arm of South American lithium producer Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM).

Post-treatment projects

One part of Altilium’s development is its building of post-treatment plants with input of battery scrap or black mass, in both the UK and Bulgaria.

Its Medet recycling hub in central-west Bulgaria is being developed as a “one-stop-shop for critical minerals in the European region, including copper, nickel, lithium and cobalt,” the firm said in May.

Altilium’s Medet hub will host a retrofit hydrometallurgical plant to recycle old electric vehicle (EV) batteries and production scrap from Eastern Europe, with capacity to process scrap from 24,000 EVs per year, the company said in May.

“We are completing final engineering work and [are] on track for commissioning next year,” a company spokesman told Fastmarkets on Thursday.

The Medet unit will also feature a copper tailings project to recycle copper from old mine waste.

“The vast site of the Medet tailings contains approximately 110 million tonnes of waste material,” Altilium said in June. “Altilium plans to recover copper and other minerals from the tailings, using its proprietary hydrometallurgical process, transforming what was once considered waste into a critical resource for Europe’s future battery industry.”

Altilium’s first mini-commercial plant is currently under construction in Plymouth, southwestern England, while its planned Teesside plant in northeastern England will be one of the largest EV battery recycling facilities in Europe once completed, the firm says.

The Teesside plant will have capacity to process scrap from more than 150,000 EVs per year, producing 30,000 tonnes per year of cathode active materials (CAM), enough to meet around 20% of the UK’s expected needs by 2030, according to Altilium.

Current operational refining capacity for black mass in Europe remains low, with many firms on the continent only operating pilot plants or demonstration post-treatment plants.

The vast majority of operational recycling capacity in Europe comes in the form of pre-treatment, shredding plants, with the newest example being the recent opening by South Korean-owned SK TES of its new Rotterdam facility to produce black mass.

Due to the lack of local processing, and several logistical and legal hurdles concerning the export of hazardous waste black mass from the EU through the Basel Convention framework, some black mass producers prefer to sell their material locally, at relatively low payables, to traders or agents based in Europe but representing foreign companies, according to market sources.

This situation allows European consumers to be able to obtain black mass at lower payables than are seen in the US market, which is not a signatory to the Basel Convention.

Fastmarkets’ latest assessments of its black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, nickel, domestic, exw Europe, % payable LME Nickel cash official price, and of its black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, cobalt, domestic, exw Europe, % payable Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end), were both 55-60% on October 9, unchanged week on week.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding assessments of the black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, nickel, exw USA, % payable LME nickel cash official price, and the black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, cobalt, domestic, exw USA, % payable Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end), were both 64-70% on Wednesday, narrowing upward from 63-70% a week earlier.

Agreements signed

In order to supercharge its end-to-end operational capability, Altilium agreed a new strategic partnership in June with recycling firm Enva for the collection and recycling of EV batteries in the UK.

The partnership will provide feed for Altilium’s Teesside refinery, a planned facility to refine lithium-ion battery scrap into battery-ready cathode anode material (CAM) for reuse in new battery production, the firm said.

Altilium in July also announced a new strategic relationship with Connected Energy, a developer of second-life battery energy storage systems.

Under the partnership, the two firms will collaborate to develop business models for the repurposing and recycling of EV batteries, bringing value to both companies, according to Altilium.

In September, Altilium received UK government funding for two of its projects with a total investment of £1.74 million ($2.27 million). This included the Teesside plant and a new partnership with an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for the production and qualification of battery cells using CAM recovered from end-of-life batteries.

Also in September, Altilium announced that it has joined with major UK-based carmaker Jaguar-Land Rover to validate EV battery cells using recycled CAM.

“We are proud to lead this pioneering project with JLR that brings us one step closer to a circular economy for battery materials in the UK,” Dr Christian Marston, Altilium’s chief operating officer, said.

“By demonstrating that EV battery cells made from recovered materials can meet the rigorous standards of the automotive industry,” he added, “we’re not only reducing the environmental impact of battery production, but also supporting the UK’s efforts to build a more sustainable and resilient EV supply chain.”

Looking for more insights and intelligence to understand the future of the li-ion battery recycling market? Visit our dedicated lithium battery recycling hub today.

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The move comes amid growing interest in low-carbon aluminium from auto manufacturers.

“In recent years, we have focused on developing new aluminium alloys that allow for increasing amounts of post-consumer, or end-of-life, aluminium scrap in the production of these alloys,” he added.

The Norway-based company is expanding its technology center next to its recycling plant in Cassopolis, Michigan and increasing recycling capacity of its plants in Cressona, Pennsylvania, the company announced last week.

The Cassopolis plant produces 120,000 tonnes per year of aluminium extrusion ingot. A technology center previously located in Zeeland, Michigan, has been relocated to the facility and expanded to support initiatives there, as well as in Henderson, Kentucky, and Commerce, Texas.

The Cressona facility’s recycling capacity will increase to more 270,000 tpy and the expansion will enable the plant to process 64,000 tonnes of post-consumer scrap annually, an addition of 30,000 tonnes.

According to Pitchford, the team in Cassopolis is developing Hydro’s proprietary HyCrush and HyBeam automotive alloys and also supported trials of other automotive products such as Hydro CIRCAL, which contains more than 75% post-consumer scrap.

Peter Hedman, director of marketing and communications at Hydro Extrusion North America, told Fastmarkets that supply tightness and the quality of aluminium scrap drives up costs for sorting lower-grade scrap into specific alloys.

“There are investments with both the metals branch and the extrusion side to partner with recycling companies on new sorting technologies. There are also a lot of opportunities for more scrap to come into the mainstream, particularly the growing green demand that puts more pressure on the market to respond,” said Hedman.

Hydro has been working to recycle more post-consumer scrap to lower its carbon footprint and reduce waste.

Fastmarkets last assessed the aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, US Midwest at zero cents per lb on Friday October 4. The aluminium low-carbon differential for value-added product, US Midwest was also at zero on Friday, down from 0-1.5 cents per lb on September 13.

“Although the US market still trails the European market somewhat, we see a similar pattern of activity that we saw in Europe, with first some curiosity; curiosity leading to inquiries; inquiries leading to trials, and trials now turning into customer orders,” said Pitchford.

He added that there has been interest from original equipment manufacturers and other large end consumers in Hydro’s Alusort joint venture’s efforts to take more post-consumer scrap back into the loop.

Want to access real-time price data and find out more about decarbonization in the aluminium industry? Follow discussions around decarbonizing the aluminium industry with the latest price trends, market insights and forecasts. Click here to visit our dedicated low-carbon aluminium hub.

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“We all know that the EV market is massive, it has to grow,” said Senator Allen. “We know how important it is for our climate goals, electrification, all the rest. We also know that there’s been some pretty problematic reports of sourcing for many of the component materials that go into EV batteries from all over the world, and we know that there is such an opportunity if we can create more coherence in the system.”

SB 615 passed out of the Appropriations Committee on August 15 and it was last amended on Friday August 23. “It’s now going to be on the floor [of the] Assembly next week,” the senator said, “then we’ll bring it over to the Senate side for a final vote.”

Should the bill pass the legislature by August 31, California’s governor Gavin Newsom would need to decide whether to sign the bill into law, and if so, to sign it by the end of September, Allen said.

End-of-life management

Section 2 of the bill states that “that any program designed to ensure proper end-of-life management of vehicle traction batteries first strives to reuse, repair, or remanufacture batteries when possible. When that is not possible, the program shall ensure that batteries are either repurposed or recycled. When a battery is no longer used in any application, the program shall ensure the batteries are recycled. Disposal of these batteries should be discouraged and ultimately eliminated in support of achieving a circular economy.”

Allen said consumers do not always “think about all the implications associated with the end of life of these products,” but “there’s a lot of implications and whether we decide to just turn them into something good, or reusable, or just toss it in the landfill where it’s a toxic waste makes a massive difference.”

“At the very least,” he said, “we ought to be not only be pushing greater domestic production, but we also ought to be doing everything we can to ensure that all the good stuff within those batteries right now is being repurchased [and] reused every single time.”

Section 4 of the bill states that battery suppliers will be required to report information regarding the sale, transfer or receipt of a vehicle traction battery or module to the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) and fully fund the cost of collection of batteries where they are required to handle end-of-life management.

The bill also includes provisions for a civil penalty on those who are not in compliance of the bill of up to $50,000 per day, or $100,000 per day “if the violation is intentional or knowing.”

Should the bill pass, the DTSC would have until July 1, 2028, to adopt the necessary regulations to implement and enforce the bill’s provisions.

The senator described the current market for batteries and battery recycling as “a bit of a wild west with no formal framework, and that’s what we’re trying to address here with this bill.”

“Getting the producers [to have] skin in the game to help provide a strong backdrop for some of these more tricky end-of-life products is really important” for this market, Allen said, adding that “at the end of the day, it’s about propping up the domestic market so we can better leverage [the Inflation Reduction Act] funding.”

“Producers are the ones who have the most tools in the toolkit,” Allen said. “We need them to help us. They need to be thinking about end of life…. they need to design for circularity, for recyclability.”

Industry reaction to Senate Bill 615

In terms of industry reaction to the bill, Allen said that “we’re working with a big industry, there’s going to be lots of different voices” but noted that both Ford Motor and the United Auto Workers (UAW) have expressed support for the bill.

“To have one of the big three [automakers] not only neutral but in enthusiastic support is a real sign of our progress,” he said. “I think they realize how immensely important this is for, not only our broader environmental goals but for their own business model. If we had a better system in place to better collect a lot of these key minerals, especially lithium, cobalt, nickel, it would just make the whole system work better and reduce costs ultimately for them in terms of production of the next generation of EVs.”

When looking at industry support, Allen said: “No one ever wants to have a program imposed upon them, but” there is some understanding of “the wisdom of government action because you always have the free rider problem. You want to make sure that everyone” takes part.
“If you’re going to do it, you want to see the others get involved,” he said.

“I appreciate the collaborative work that we’ve done with folks from industry, and labor and others,” Allen said. “This is ultimately going to help up solve a big problem. I’m glad that everyone saw the wisdom of this.”

“Nobody loves getting regulated,” he said, “even if people understand the need for it. But I think…we found a rubric that people are comfortable with.”

“I’m feeling cautiously optimistic about our progress given the support we’ve gotten,” he said, but “you never know until the thing is done.”

Want more price trends, market insights and forecasts for the critical minerals and strategic materials markets? Our coverage of critical minerals includes in-depth price data, market insights and short- and long-term forecasting and analysis for global metals, battery raw materials and rare earths markets. Visit our dedicated critical minerals hub today.

The post California to vote on bill to hold EV battery producers accountable for end-of-life management, recycling appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Overcapacity in the packaging industry in China has led to dwindling demand for recycled pulp manufactured in Southeast Asia, where most plants are operated by Chinese parent companies, with output shipped back to feed their machines or to be sold on the Chinese market.

China-affiliated recycled pulp mills in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, usually pay top dollar for US premium brown grades, such as double-sorted OCC (DS OCC 12).

With OCC demand from the recycled pulp plants subdued, suppliers sought to sell US tonnages to regional board mills at discounted prices.

As a result, sellers’ offer prices were split – DS OCC offered to China-based customers was priced at $220-230 per tonne, while offers to regional board manufacturers was below $220 per tonne.

In Indonesia, where prices are $5-15 per tonne higher because inbound recovered paper cargoes are required to implement pre-shipment inspection at the country of origin, customers reported that US DS OCC were offered at two different levels.

“US DS OCC offered by vendors who export to China-based buyers was priced at $230-235 per tonne during the recent two weeks, and others were $225 per tonne,” a major Indonesian buyer said.

“We have reduced purchasing volumes of import OCC in line with sluggish box demand in the Indonesian market. Consumers cut back on spending, resulting in a decrease in food and beverage consumption. Large mills in the country have shut down machines to cope with the poor packaging consumption,” the buyer added.

Market related ‘downtime’

According to the buyer: “We see an increase in the availability of OCC collected domestically, a proof that the country’s small and medium-sized plants are taking market-related downtime due to the packaging slump. We have therefore decided to step-up purchases of local OCC and cut import OCC tonnage, which also enables us to haggle down prices for the latter.”

A large Thai producer has halted purchases of OCC and mixed paper imports for the past four weeks, which was a major setback for suppliers.

The Thai producer had their mixed paper cargoes rejected by customs in Thailand several weeks ago, with their inbound OCC goods subsequently subject to full inspections by the customs authority, according to a vendor.

“That leaves a hole in the market. We have no clue why the big-volume customer stops buying import OCC, apart from mixed paper,” the trader said.

Sources reported that the overseas purchasing arms of major Chinese producers had reportedly paid $180 per tonne on a FAS basis for DS OCC on the US West Coast, and other traders paid $173-175 per tonne.

A Vietnamese customer said that DS OCC volumes were readily available and they managed to haggle down prices for the grade.

As of Thursday August 15, DS OCC was sold for $220-225 per tonne to China-based buyers in Southeast Asia; however, regional board mills in Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan paid $210-215 per tonne for the grade.

Prices for benchmark US OCC 11 were $205-210 per tonne, down by $5 per tonne from the previous assessment three weeks ago.

Japanese OCC soars

Restricted availability and a lack of shipping space and equipment caused prices for OCC exports from Japan to the region surge.

Following a jump of $10 per tonne in mid-July, prices for Japanese OCC continued to climb, up by $5-15 per tonne to $195-205 per tonne on Thursday, with the low end of the range paid by buyers in Taiwan and with the higher end of the range paid by Southeastern customers, mainly Vietnamese mills.

Japanese OCC prices have followed US brown grade prices in the past and have typically been equal to or $10 per tonne higher than European OCC.

With an intention of catching up with Japanese OCC prices, suppliers pushed for price hikes for European OCC.

A major European seller noted that mills in region had low OCC stocks and would need to replenish their depleted inventories given that Japanese OCC has became so expensive.

But buyers pushed back, citing weak packaging demand.

In the end, the premium European brown grade, OCC 98/2 was sold at $170-175 per tonne, edging up by $5 per tonne.

The benchmark European OCC 95/5 was $160-170 per tonne, widening upward from $160-165 per tonne three weeks ago.

Chinese OCC prices up, short supplies

In China, the price of premium brown grade, pre-consumer and import OCC was assessed at RMB 1,763 per tonne in the week to August 15, climbing by RMB 57 per tonne from three weeks earlier.

This was equivalent to $200 per tonne, excluding 13% value-added and RMB 150 per tonne in logistic costs. The Chinese premium brown grade is comparable to US OCC.

Rainy weather in northern China and high temperatures in southern regions have led to a shortage of OCC supply and generation has suffered.

“[Recovered paper] RCP suppliers are appealing to us for a price increase, citing the high temperatures that have impacted outdoor RCP collection activities,” a large paper mill said. “They are also voicing concerns over the slim profits and the high labor costs, arguing that the low OCC prices will result in a further reduction of generation.”

Some paper mills in northern regions were also experiencing a shortage of OCC supply due to the rainy weather.

However, the concentrated release of new capacity this summer has led to a rapid increase in demand for OCC. According to incomplete statistics, since June, new capacity of containerboard in China has reached 2 million tonnes per year, which has contributed to the rise in OCC prices.

Another source noted an additional reason for the price increase. When August began, Chinese paper mills started to push for price increases for finished paper in preparation for potential Mid-Autumn and National Day orders, which has led to a rise in OCC prices as well.

But the push to raise prices for finished paper has been challenging, with most downstream customers either rejecting the price increases or accepting only a partial rise. Multiple paper mills have stated this week that they have not seen an increase in finished paper orders.

Recycled pulp in China

High US OCC costs, low finished paper prices and weak demand in China have led to a loss of vitality in the recycled pulp market this summer.

Recycled pulp from Southeast Asia was offered in China at $285 per tonne, unchanged from three weeks earlier, but business was slack.

Chinese paper mills have reduced their use of recycled pulp, causing Southeast Asian pulp mills to have to decrease recycled pulp production and even shut down factories.

According to sources, a recycled pulp mill in Thailand, owned by a major Chinese packaging producer, was shut down at the end of July. The plant, which commenced operations in the first quarter of 2021, had a capacity of 200,000 tonnes per year for dry grinding pulp and 200,000 tonnes per year for wet pulp. The remaining OCC stocks from this plant were relocated to another joint venture factory investment by the Chinese company, which is closer to the port and has a cost advantage.

A recycled pulp mill in Malaysia was also closed in May.

In Malaysia, operating recycled pulp plants is no easy task. US OCC costs in Malaysia are higher than in Thailand due to additional costs incurred by the country’s pre-shipment inspections and logistic issues.

A recycled pulp mill in Malaysia owned by a Chinese paper mill said: “Recently, purchasing US OCC has been challenging. We are facing a shortage of shipping space and high freight rates. The suppliers’ quotes are significantly higher than our expectations.”

In addition, a source noted that many surviving independent recycled pulp producers in Southeast Asia are now merely sub-contracting to Chinese mill. They no longer produce and sell on their own. They only do contract runs on a basis of a per-tonne fee instead.

The post Import OCC prices in are Asia mixed, with European and Japanese up, but US down appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Last year, 6% of globally generated lithium-ion battery scrap was generated by the US, but that percentage is expected to rise to 11% by 2034, according to the latest estimates from Fastmarkets’ research team. In the US, 87,000 tonnes of battery scrap are expected to be available for recycling in 2024, and this tonnage is expected to increase by approximately 488% by 2034.

The US is also estimated to produce approximately 40,000 tonnes of black mass in 2024, which is expected to rise to about 270,000 tonnes, or 13% of total market share, in 2034, per Fastmarkets’ research team.

According to the DOE, as of 2023, the US had enough domestic battery recycling capacity to reclaim only 35,500 short tons of battery materials per year, with more facilities planned in the next two to four years to reclaim an additional 76,000 short tons of material per year.

Nearly 175,000 short tons of material were reclaimed in intermediate processing facilities in 2023, with plans to handle nearly 198,000 additional short tons in the next few years, according to the DOE.

As a result of the widening oversupply in black mass, most market participants expect that a significant volume of US material will continue to be exported over the short and medium term, while a portion of that material may be stored in warehouses until it can be processed domestically.

Currently, many US black mass producers sell their materials on an ex-works basis to either limited domestic consumers, traders or foreign consumers, according to market sources, particularly to Southeast Asian and South Korean markets.

“Most of the material today, be it black mass or be it batteries, [is] being exported to Asia,” and, in addition to the lack of refining capacity, “[it’s] also because they’re offering more profit for these metals,” Alberto Pascual, commercial manager at Nth Cycle, said during the Battery and Critical Metals Recycling Conference in June.

A manufacturing renaissance stemming from governmental focus on recycling and other efforts to secure supply chains for critical battery materials has come in the form of $7 billion worth of funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), as well as tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

But, according to market sources, with the market still developing, the US market cannot yet support a robust domestic trade of this material.

Talk of export restrictions or bans on US black mass are occasionally heard, but most market participants told Fastmarkets they do not believe any will come to fruition anytime soon, if ever.

“The problem that we’re trying to solve here is very simple… and we see this as the elephant in the room, and it’s really that there’s not enough refining capacity in the United States,” Pascual said.

While this refining capability continues to be incentivized and capacity grows, so does market interest in US black mass.

Sources currently describe the market as “opaque,” with refiners needing different compositions of black mass depending on refining capabilities.

However, more homogeny is expected with the expansion of refining capacity and the emergence of different technologies as more popular or successful, sources have said.

Financial issues have also delayed progress of some major Western entrants into the sector while weaker battery metal prices and stronger black mass payables amid stiff competition in Asia have hampered conversion margins for black mass consumers.

US incentivizing growth

The current US administration’s drive to support decarbonization efforts has manifested in hefty industry investment.

US black mass refining has been incentivized by both BIL funding and the IRA, which motivates automakers to use domestically manufactured components for electric vehicle (EV) batteries through the 30D tax credit, which incentivizes the sale of “clean” vehicles.

“There’s a lot of focus being put on this subject right now by the government, and the government is actually showing a lot of good will as wanting to work with the industry to create a sustainable environment, both economically and environmentally for the movement of batteries,” Emil Nusbaum, vice president of strategy, government and regulatory affairs at the Automotive Recyclers Association also said at the Battery and Critical Metals Recycling Conference.

Additionally, since the start of the Biden administration, $173 billion in private-sector investment has been announced across the US clean vehicle and battery supply chain, it was stated in a Treasury Department announcement on May 3.

Joint ventures and memorandums of understanding in recent years have emphasized efforts to “close the loop” between production, recycling and refining to ensure as much material as possible stays within US battery supply chains.

“When you’re trying to compete on a global stage, you’ve got to be competitive… especially when you’re playing catch-up. So, in this case, [the] United States is playing catch-up with China,” Mike O’Kronley, chief executive officer of Ascend Elements said at the same conference.

And in order to do that, “you need some help, especially when you’re going up against very established players that are already at that capacity and capability. And so, if we want that to be in the United States, you need a certain amount of help, and that’s certainly what the [DOE] has done. Not only with us, but a lot of other technologies, a lot of other US innovations,” O’Kronley continued.

Fastmarkets’ commitment to transparency in developing markets

Based on growing demand for transparency across the battery recycling supply chain, and to complement its existing suite of European and Asian Black Mass Payable Indicators, Fastmarkets has launched a raft of US payable indicators effective Wednesday August 7.

Black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, nickel, domestic, exw USA, % payable LME Nickel cash official price
Quality: Nickel and cobalt-rich black mass composed with metal content of 15-25% nickel, 3-13% cobalt, max 2% aluminium, max 2% copper, max 5% fluorine, max 1% iron
Quantity: min 1 tonne
Location: Ex-works United States
Timing: 45 days
Unit: % payable of LME nickel cash price
Payment terms: Letter of credit, current price month
Publication: Weekly, Wednesdays 4-5pm EST
Notes: Total cobalt and nickel content to be 18-38% min/max. Material with impurities above 2% but not exceeding 5% for aluminium and copper may be accepted dependent on liquidity levels and reporter’s discretion

Black mass, NCM/NCA, payable indicator, cobalt, domestic, exw USA, % payable Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price (low-end)
Quality: Nickel and cobalt-rich black mass composed with metal content of 15-25% nickel, 3-13% cobalt, max 2% aluminium, max 2% copper, max 5% fluorine, max 1% iron
Quantity: min 1 tonne
Location: Ex-works United States
Timing: 45 days
Unit: % payable of Fastmarkets’ standard-grade cobalt price, in whs Rotterdam (low-end)
Payment terms: Letter of credit, current price month
Publication: Weekly, Wednesdays 4-5pm EST
Notes: Total cobalt and nickel content to be 18-38% min/max. Material with impurities above 2% but not exceeding 5% for aluminium and copper may be accepted dependent on liquidity levels and reporter’s discretion

These assessments will form part of Fastmarkets’ Minor Metals Physical, Industry Minerals Physical and Base Metals Physical price packages.

Amy Hinton contributed to the writing of this report.

Keep up to date with global market insights and predictions for the battery recycling and black mass market. Talk to us today.

The post US burgeoning black mass exporter; domestic battery recycling demand to soar: sources appeared first on Fastmarkets.

There could be opportunities for miners and recycled copper producers, while smelters face serious challenges. We take a deep dive into the disruption reshaping the copper market.

We will explore:

• How copper demand growth is being spurred by the energy transition
• Copper production forecasts and the struggle to keep up with demand
• Copper recycling and predictions for the future
• Data on forecast copper deficit
• The emerging challenges for copper smelters
• Whether current copper trends can be sustained

Find out more about Fastmarkets’ short- and long-term forecasts services for the copper market.

1. Copper demand growth supercharged by energy transition

Apparent refined copper demand will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% to reach 35.1 million tonnes by 2034, up from 26.5 milllion tonnes in 2023.

Consumption from energy transition industries (solar energy, wind power, electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging infrastructure) will rise at a CAGR of 11.2%, far outpacing consumption from traditional sectors with a rise at a CAGR of 1.4%.

Within energy transition demand, the electric vehicle (EV) sector’s copper consumption will rise at a CAGR of 13.7%, accounting for 55% of the energy transition total.

Demand from the wind power sector will rise at a CAGR of 11.2%, while solar demand will rise at a CAGR of 6.1%.

2. Copper production can’t keep up

Copper production from all sources will grow at a CAGR of 2.2% in the next 10 years to 2034, underperforming demand growth of 2.6%.

We forecast concentrate production to rise at a CAGR of 2% after disruption allowances, reflecting a relative lack of investment in major new mines in the past decade, higher capital costs, falling average ore grades, policy risks and ESG complications.

3. More copper will be recycled

We forecast that elevated prices, increased focus on sustainability and investments in new recycling capacity will result in a wave of sustainable growth in secondary copper production over the next decade.

Refined copper production from secondary sources is forecast to rise at a CAGR of 4.9% between now and 2034.

4. Looming copper deficit

We forecast a global refined copper market deficit in 2024, mainly as tightness in the concentrate market restrains refined output.

For the rest of the decade, the market will alternate between periods of temporary surplus and deficits, but with supply shortfalls increasing from around 2030 due to a lack of new mines. By 2034, we forecast that the market will need an additional 1,364,000 tonnes of copper per year.

5. Copper smelters face tough challenges

Supplies of copper concentrates are expected to remain in significant deficit in 2025. That means smelters will face even more severe raw material challenges from next year.  

Market participants expect low TC/RC numbers for 2025’s contractual supply talks, which usually kick off every November, due to sustained supply shortages of copper concentrates.

Copper smelters are likely to reduce output to stem losses incurred by the hefty cost of copper concentrates – their key feedstock.

6. Current trends unsustainable – something must change

The current outlook for ballooning supply deficits is not sustainable and something will have to give.

There are plenty of downside risks to the demand outlook that may reduce future copper consumption. For example, the pace of the energy transition may slow targets, cutting copper demand.

Macroeconomic factors, such as higher-than expected inflation or lower growth may hit future copper demand.

Substitution pressure will grow, accelerating opportunities to replace copper in some applications. For example, aluminium can replace copper in some cabling.

On the supply side, there are upside risks that may raise the growth trajectories currently forecast.

Higher prices will allow orebodies to be mined for longer, extending mine lives, while faster-turnaround brownfield mine expansions will be prioritized over greenfield mine projects that have far longer lead times, higher costs and greater risks.

Improved technology can also help, with processing enhancements to improve mine and smelter recoveries.

Inform your copper strategy with metals price forecasts and analysis for the global copper industry. Contact us today to find out more about our copper long-term forecast.

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