The second amendment extends the timing window to include any transaction data concluded within up to 18 months, from three months previously. The extension of the timing window will allow for an inclusive approach to an evolving low-carbon marketplace, allowing Fastmarkets to capture all reported transaction data under one robust differential. No negative feedback was received during the consultation period.  

The new specifications for the differentials will be as follows (changes in italics):

MB-AL-0389 Aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, US Midwest, US cents/lb
Carbon limit: 4tCO2e per tonne of aluminium produced, Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Quality: P1020A or 99.7% minimum Al purity (Si 0.10% max, Fe 0.20% max). Ingot, T-bar, sow
Quantity: Min 100 tonnes
Location: Delivered consumer works Midwest, differential on top of P1020A premium and exchange-listed aluminum price.
Unit: US cents per pound
Timing: Up to 18 months
Publication: Monthly, first Friday of the month, 3-4pm London time.

MB-AL-0390 Aluminium low-carbon differential value-added product, US Midwest, US cents/lb
Carbon limit: 4tCO2e per tonne of aluminium produced, Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Type: Extrusion billet, primary foundry alloy, wire rod, slab
Quantity: Min 100 tonnes
Location: Delivered into US Midwest region, differential on top of value-added product premium and exchange-listed aluminum price
Unit: US cents per pound
Timing: Up to 18 months
Publication: Monthly, first Friday of the month, 3-4pm London time.

These prices are a part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

To provide feedback on this price, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Yasemin Esmen by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Yasemin Esmen, re: US low-carbon aluminium differentials.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Amendment to frequency and timing window of US low-carbon aluminium differentials: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

At the time, Fastmarkets asked market participants whether the export curbs were a political symbol or a real threat. The timing of the announcement — shortly after the US had announced fresh export restrictions on advanced chipmaking to China — led some market participants to suggest the move was part of a technology and trade war tit-for-tat.

A year and half later, the same question persists.

China announced on Tuesday December 3 that it was tightening its existing export controls on gallium and germanium (and antimony and graphite, which were covered in subsequent export controls), explicitly prohibiting shipments of both metals to the US.

The decision raised new concerns in the market and the media due to the criticality of these metals across a variety of high-tech and particularly chipmaking sectors. The United States Geological Survey report published in November estimated that a total ban of exports of gallium and germanium from China could cost the US economy about $3.4 billion in economic output.

Again, the timing of the new announcement — the day after the US announced a new wave of restrictions targeting China’s chipmaking sector — raised concerns among market participants about geopolitical posturing.

And the fact that direct exports of gallium and germanium from China have de-facto been blocked to the US since the export control first came into effect also raised questions. China’s customs data shows no exports of either metal to the US since the control was implemented.

This has led some market participants to believe that there will be little difference under the new tightened regime, Fastmarkets heard.

“Technically speaking, nothing should change… [China] just officialized something that they were already doing,” a European trader said.

Indeed, the impact on gallium and germanium prices in European markets was limited following Tuesday’s announcement.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam was $470-550 per kg on December 6, flat on the session before and since November 8.

But gallium market participants in Europe faced difficulty in finding offers, with stockholders saying they were staying on the sidelines to assess the effects of a tighter implementation of China’s export controls.

Fastmarkets’ price for germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam was $2,900-3,000 per kg on December 6, narrowing up by $50 per kg from $2,850-3,000 per kg in the previous session on December 4.

Germanium supply in Europe has been tight for some time, however, and that price increase was not related to panic in the market, but to a continuation of the tightness, sources told Fastmarkets.

Closing loopholes

Although market participants said that an effective prohibition on exporting material to the US was already in place, some questioned whether the new announcement may be targeting indirect exports of Chinese material into the US.

The latest announcement warned that violations of the measure would lead to legal consequences, particularly for parties transferring or providing these items to US entities without authorization.

Data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) shows the country has been importing some gallium and germanium of Chinese origin.

The US has imported some 1.1 tonnes of China-origin gallium and 4.5 tonnes of China-origin germanium since the export control first came into effect last year, according to the data, which is available up to October of this year.

Per the US Census Department, the country of origin refers to where the goods were produced or where they underwent a tariff classification change indicating a “substantial transformation.”

The data therefore does not necessarily reflect that the US is somehow indirectly importing material from China; instead, it could be buying material from pre-export-control stocks in Europe and elsewhere, when exports from China did not require end-user documentation.

Either way, the initial implementation of China’s export control required foreign buyers to identify their material’s end-user before receiving a license to ship material, before exports were considered on a case-by-case basis. The end-user classification is understood to refer to someone transforming material to a sufficient extent to change its relevant customs code.

That classification would likely make any entity exporting gallium or germanium recycling feedstock from China and refining that into metal as an end user, even if they are then shipping that metal to the US, market participants told Fastmarkets.

But they questioned how practical enforcing an export control lower down the value chain could be, while warning it could lead midstream gallium and germanium consumers exercise more caution in their sales into the US if they are sourcing metal from China.

“Are you going to risk your China sourcing ability for a small US sale?” a second European trader said.

China-based exporters said it was too early to say how the tighter export controls would affect shipments in the long run, although they warned of longer processing times for exports to be approved due to extra due diligence requirements.

Some market participants have reported that processing times for exports have been longer anyway. Exports of gallium were initially frozen when the export control came into effect, but, since then, shipments have been to close to their historic volumes.

Furthermore, in October, the most recent month for which China’s trade flow data is available, gallium exports declined precipitously, leading some sources to ponder that tighter due diligence requirements were already being placed on shipments.

Want to find out more about our critical minerals price data, forecasts and market insights? Visit our dedicated critical minerals market hub here.

The post China’s tighter gallium, germanium export controls: more of the same or a shift in approach? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Others were more optimistic, expecting that impact on steelmaking raw materials will be limited in the near-term given the slowdown in Japan’s crude steel output in recent years, adding that it may also speed up Japan’s decarbonization efforts, sources told Fastmarkets.

Overview of Japan’s new plans

Japan’s carbon trading market has been in its pilot phase since April 2023, with participation being voluntary until now.

The new mandatory trading system is set to initially cover 300 to 400 large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters, including steel, power, chemical and automotive producers that release more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, local media reported on November 22.

Under the scheme, the government will allocate emission quotas individually. Firms that emit less than their quota can sell their surplus carbon credits to others, while those emitting in excess must purchase additional credits or face penalties.

The government is expected to finalise the specific details of the trading system, including individual company quotas by 2026. A legislative proposal to amend relevant laws is expected to be introduced during the parliamentary session in 2025.

Japanese government officials are also considering setting a new target of 60% emissions reductions by 2035 and 73% by 2040, compared with current goal of 46% emissions reductions by 2030. These are both reductions in relation to 2013 levels.

Countries worldwide have been adopting emissions trading, a type of carbon pricing which charges companies based on their CO2 emissions, in a global shift toward a low-carbon future.

The European Union launched the world’s first Emissions Trading System (ETS) back in 2005, with its scope expanding to maritime transport emissions as well this year.

In Asia, South Korea launched its ETS in 2015, while China launched its ETS in 2021.

In September, China – the world’s largest steelmaker – also announced plans to onboard 1,500 firms in the steel, cement and electrolytic aluminium sectors to its ETS.

What does this mean for Japanese steelmakers?

Japanese market participants generally expect the new carbon tax to push up steelmaking costs in the long run, although the impact of this could be limited in the short-term due to low production rates in recent years and sparse details on the carbon quotas.

Major steel mills have been voluntarily reducing their crude steel production in recent years due to weak downstream demand, indirectly reducing their carbon output, a Japan-based source told Fastmarkets.

“If Japanese steel mills continue to cut crude steel production, they may automatically meet their target of CO2 emissions reduction in 2030,” the Japan-based source said. “In addition, emissions quotas have also yet to be allocated, so in the short-term, it may not have a significant impact on mills’ demand for different raw materials.”

The impact on iron ore demand is expected to be especially limited because most blast furnaces rely on long-term contracts and rarely procure material from the spot market.

Earlier in 2024, Japanese iron ore inventories were so high, they were occasionally being resold to the Mainland Chinese market.

A second Japan-based trader said there is “less flexibility to adjust long-term contract iron ore volume quarterly” unless they negotiate the volume at the start of the fiscal year. In 2024, most steel mills in Japan have reduced usage of high-grade pellets in blast furnace to about 5% due to the high cost and weaker downstream steel demand.

“There has been no similar plan like that seen in Mainland China to raise the pellet ratio in blast furnaces to reduce overall carbon emissions. Mills have been focusing more on transforming to hydrogen fueled electric arc furnace (EAF)-based steelmaking,” the second trader said.

Japanese market participants generally expect the new scheme to nudge steelmakers into investing in more, or speeding up investments, in decarbonization technologies, sources told Fastmarkets.

“If the carbon emission trading price is higher in the future, it could speed up mills’ steelmaking technology upgrades,” the second trader said.

Nippon Steel is planning to replace a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) with a new EAF at its Yahata plant and plans to build another EAF at its Hirohata facility. The steelmaker is also looking into using hydrogen to produce low-carbon steelmaking raw materials, included direct-reduced iron (DRI).

Other steelmaking giants, JFE Steel and Kobelco, are set to convert BOFs into EAFs in the latter half of the decade. The former saw its first green steel sales outside of Japan earlier this month.

In the long run, some Japanese market participants fear that the added costs could make it more difficult for firms to compete with cheap imports, particularly from China.

The gap between global steelmaking demand and capacity was approximately 551 million tonnes in 2023, according to OECD data.

“With the added carbon costs, this would only hurt Japanese steel prices in the short run, making them less price competitive than their cheaper Chinese counterparts. To counter this, we might see the Japanese-equivalent of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),” a Singapore-based trader said.

Tighter scrap supply for the rest of Asia?

Japan’s shift toward domestic EAF steelmaking, supported by the new ETS scheme, could disrupt Asian scrap markets and send scrap prices higher, sources said.

Limited scrap availability has been an ongoing concern for steelmakers, with a shortage of high-quality scrap being of particular concern.

In October, major local scrap buyer Tokyo Steel announced plans to grow its scrap collection capacity with a new yard in Chiba prefecture.

In June, major trading firm Mitsui also announced plans to invest in Indian recycling major MTC Group to secure more scrap.

A potential tightening of Japanese scrap supply could be especially troublesome for Vietnam, which has grown increasingly dependent on Japanese scrap imports in the recent year compared with costlier deep-sea scrap, sources said.

Vietnam overtook South Korea to become Japan’s largest export destination by volume, with the Southeast Asian nation importing 1.99 million tonnes of ferrous scrap from Japan in the first 10 months of 2024, making up over 51.2% of Vietnam’s total steel scrap import volumes, according to the latest Vietnam customs statistics.

The country’s cumulative import volumes from Japan for January to October jumped by 763,108 tonnes, or about 62.4%, from 1.22 million tonnes the year prior.

In contrast, Vietnam imported only 416,286 tonnes of steel scrap from the United States in the same period of 2024 , a decline of 409,892 tonnes, or 49.6%, year on year, customs data also showed.

Japanese scrap prices into Vietnam have maintained a discount of roughly $20 per tonne in relation to scrap from deep-sea sources like the US and Australia.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for deep-sea bulk cargoes of steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20), cfr Vietnam, has averaged $382.31 per tonne for the first 11 months of the year thus far, down more than $20 per tonne from an average of $406.56 per tonne the same period in 2023.

Fastmarkets’ corresponding weekly price assessment for steel scrap, H2, Japan-origin import, cfr Vietnam, has averaged $363.51 per tonne for January to November 2024, falling about $30 per tonne from $392.94 per tonne a year earlier.

South Korea and Taiwan, Japan’s second and third-largest export destinations for 2024 will likely also be affected, albeit by a smaller extent, sources told Fastmarkets.

Korea has been primarily sourcing from its domestic scrap supply amid sluggish construction demand and pressure from cheap billet from Mainland China.

Taiwan’s scrap demand has also been adversely affected by multiple typhoons in 2024 this year, leading to a slowdown in scrap buying appetite. Wide availability of cheap billet further eroded scrap demand.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel scrap H2 export, fob main port Japan was last at ¥44,500-46,100 ($293-304) per tonne on November 29, up by ¥1,600-2,000 per tonne from ¥42,500-44,500 per tonne a week earlier.

The post Japan mulls mandatory carbon trading; Asian steelmakers on alert appeared first on Fastmarkets.

But there are feasible solutions to promote green ferro-alloys production and green premiums in China, including accelerating the replacement of older ferro-alloy production capacity and increasing green energy usage in newly installed facilities at major production hubs, multiple sources said at the conference.

The production of ferro-alloys consumes a lot of energy and usually relies on coal, which can be highly polluting. Also, power costs constitute a large proportion of overall output costs. The green ferro-alloys industry intends to produce the material competitively with less energy and lower coke consumption.

In 2024, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region started requiring all highly energy-consuming ferro-alloys production capacity in the region to be shut down to promote industrial structure optimization and adjustment, sources told Fastmarkets.

Inner Mongolia also issued a notice in August 2023 on “Policies and measures to promote the high-quality development of the ferro-alloy industry,” which states that ferro-alloys producers must gradually increase their percentage of green power consumption and that production facilities that use at least 60% of green energy are not required to undergo mandatory capacity replacement.

Inner Mongolia is the biggest ferro-alloys production hub in China, with a total of 140 million tonnes of ferro-alloys output in 2023, accounting for almost 30% of overall production in the country.

“The more that [older] ferro-alloy production capacity in production hubs is eliminated, the higher the proportion of green energy usage will be,” a ferro-alloys trader told Fastmarkets at the conference. “And many provinces also announced [rules] to increase green power usage in adding new ferro-alloys production capacity, which will increase the overall renewable power application in the next couple of years.”

Accelerating the adoption of green steel premiums in the whole industry would add some momentum to the proliferation and acceptance of green ferro-alloys premiums, Fastmarkets heard.

“By the time ferro-alloys producers in China, or even around the globe, widely adopt green power, the green ferro-alloys premium will be accepted and will also be very meaningful in the ferro-alloys industry,” the trader said.

Fastmarkets’ green ferro-alloy prices in China consist of:

Weekly green ferro-chrome differential, ddp China, yuan per tonne
Weekly inferred green ferro-chrome prices, ddp China, yuan per tonne
Weekly green ferro-manganese differential, in-whs China, yuan per tonne
Weekly inferred green ferro-manganese prices, in-whs China, yuan per tonne

But some obstacles remain in the way of a large-scale uptake of green ferro-alloys and their premiums.

These include:

Underdeveloped green power facilities, peak-regulation capabilities

Renewable energy facilities and their peak-regulation capabilities — that is, their process of balancing power supply with the load on the power grid during peak and off-peak hours — are not mature enough to meet the requirements of the fast-growing green ferro-alloys industry, sources said.

Green power supply is volatile, intermittent and random, which may pose a big challenge to ferro-alloys production in Northwestern China and to green ferro-alloys premiums, a ferro-alloys source told Fastmarkets at the conference.

“Green power supply may not be able to provide enough stable power for ferro-alloys producers in Northwest China in the winter or in extreme weather conditions because green [energy in the region] mainly comes from wind, solar and photovoltaic power,” the source said.

Green steel premiums yet to be widely accepted

Green steel premiums are not yet widely accepted in the market, which may limit green ferro-alloys premiums since downstream demand for ferro-alloys comes from the steelmaking industry, Fastmarkets heard at the conference.

“Even though many steel mills are embarking on the decarbonization journey, I have heard that not many steel mills accept the green steel premium since it would be an increase over the non-premium steel price, and the steel market has [performed] quite poorly this year,” a second ferro-alloys source said.

“If downstream steel mills still [resist] accepting the green steel premium, how can we expect ferro-alloys buyers to adopt the green ferro-alloys premium? I suppose it may take quite some time for the whole steelmaking industry supply chain to adopt the green premiums,” the source added.

Fewer ferro-alloys exports to Europe, US

Chinese exports of ferro-alloys to Europe or the US have decreased in recent years due to anti-dumping duties enforced in those regions, which makes it less compelling to advocate for green ferro-alloys premiums, sources said at the conference.

“Despite the fact that European buyers are more concerned about whether the ferro-alloys they buy are green or low-carbon, there is one thing that cannot be ignored — not so many Chinese ferro-alloys products are being exported overseas now. Most Chinese ferro-alloys are consumed by domestic steel mills in China,” the second ferro-alloys source said.

“There is only one country that China sells ferro-alloys to, which is India. It now has a fast-growing demand for steel and ferro-alloys, but there is still a very long way for India to go green,” a third ferro-alloys source said at the conference.

Different scale, production technologies among Chinese ferro-alloys producers

China’s ferro-alloys facilities are largely scattered across several locations and production hubs, with different scales of production and technical specifications, making it quite difficult for Chinese producers to achieve a unified technological progress in terms of increasing the proportion of renewable energy usage, Fastmarkets heard at the conference.

“In the ferro-alloys industry, the leading ferro-alloys producers only make up a relatively small proportion of overall production. As a result, the green transformation – the adoption of green power supply among leading producers – will not have a big effect on the ferro-alloys industry as a whole,” a fourth ferro-alloys source told Fastmarkets.

Green power still uncompetitive despite low-cost advantage

Issues in the renewable energy supply, such as its volatility and intermittency, have prevented it from being scaled up in China in the medium and long term, so green power’s low-cost advantage has not been enough to compete with traditional fossil power sources, such as coal, sources said.

“Admittedly, green power costs are not as high as traditional fossil power costs, which could reduce overall costs in the production of ferro-alloys,” a fifth ferro-alloys source said at the conference. “But if you do the math, the utilization rate of green power is rather lower than traditional power like coal, especially in cold weather in Northwest China.”

“So far, the low-cost advantage has not been that evident or cost-efficient enough to make me adopt green power and the green ferro-alloys premium. Maybe it will still take time to promote green power and the green ferro-alloys premium and for ferro-alloys producers to accept them in light of all the obstacles in the way,” the source added.

The post Five challenges in China’s journey toward sustainable ferro-alloys appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Our webinar panel, introduced by Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials at Fastmarkets and featuring our experts Connor Watts, Will Adams, Olivier Masson, Rob Searle, Amy Bennett, Muthu Krishna and Luke Sweeney, provided insights into all segments of the battery materials market. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

Battery demand outlook 2025

Connor Watts noted that while EV demand in Europe has fallen, we are now back into positive year-over-year growth. Elsewhere, China has been a key stalwart for EV demand with a 35% year on year increase.  

Watts said: “Some other key trends so far this year have been a continued shift towards LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), particularly in China.” 

“We expect EV demand to continue growing by 16% year-on-year, but the wider battery market is likely to grow much faster than that due to the development of the energy storage market,” he added. 

We expect growth in Europe next year, supported by new emissions regulations and potential positive outcomes from key elections in France and Germany. 

Lithium market looking robust

Will Adams noted that the market has rebalanced somewhat, and lithium carbonate prices have stabilized at about $11/kg with production cuts impacting supply. Cutbacks have led to significant drops in mine production in both China and Australia, but prices currently stand still at about 50% above the lows seen in 2020. 

The outlook for 2025 for lithium however is looking robust, and Adams surmised: “We’re probably going to be stepping in and out of deficits for a while, but as the deficits get closer, look out for the restocking phase as that can really give prices a boost.”  

Nickel market headed for surplus

Despite significant production cuts, the nickel market is expected to register a surplus this year, with the primary nickel demand in batteries growing by around 6% this year. According to Olivier Masson, the outlook for energy storage systems is strong, and he expects the battery sector to lead the demand for nickel in the years ahead.  

He said: “We expect crude stainless steel production to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% to 2028, driven by China and led by 300 series material, which is the high nickel containing stainless steel.” 

Cobalt prices under pressure

There are ongoing challenges in the cobalt market, where oversupply due to weak demand in Western markets and slow manufacturing growth has led to pressure on cobalt prices, according to Rob Searle. Mine supply growth has significantly outpaced demand, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Indonesia. Searle added: “We expect to see a significant surplus in 2024, with bullish and elevated prices in the cobalt market continuing into 2025”. 

Graphite and anode market  

Amy Bennett highlighted the challenges in the graphite market, with prices falling throughout the year and significant competition from the synthetic graphite sector. China’s dominance in the graphite supply chain has increased, with Chinese producers adding and expanding capacity for both natural and synthetic graphite. The market is expected to remain in surplus next year, with some modest price recovery expected as excess supply begins to be absorbed. 

Manganese market  

Manganese sulphate prices have turned bearish in Q4, Rob Searle explained, with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia. “We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” he noted. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity. 

Cell costs and forecasts  

“Falling raw material prices have driven cell costs to historic lows,” said Muthu Krishna, adding that cell costs in China have fallen by up to 60%. He also highlighted that stable prices are critical for long-term sustainable growth in the EV sector. “LFP is well placed to absorb the rise in raw material prices, and must be adopted more aggressively outside China if we are to see the development of more affordable EVs,” he added. 

To learn more about how lithium-ion cell costs are impacting EV costs, read the in-depth report from Muthu Krishna here.

Recycling and black mass  

Finally, Luke Sweeney noted that black mass payables are generally split between Europe and the rest of the world. He highlighted that there’s a huge discount for black mass in Europe because there is almost no refining capacity within Europe, and because the European market has a different regulatory environment, with black mass considered a hazardous waste. 

Due to the global under-supply of black mass, suppliers have a strong negotiating position when it comes to price. We expect the market to become oversupplied with black mass with the rapid growth in end-of-life battery waste availability. 

If you’d like to talk to us about how you can access more insights and market intelligence relating to the BRM market, get in touch today. 

Want to know more? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

The post Battery raw materials outlook 2025: Robust and rebalancing market appeared first on Fastmarkets.

“What we haven’t seen is the corresponding tariffs. So we’ve only been developing a race against China’s [subsidies]. And that’s a race that the US as well as any free-market economy is destined to lose,” Fannon told delegates.

He explained the current strategy using President Reagan’s principle: “If you want more of something, subsidize it… if you want less of it, tax it.” 

During Trump’s first term, the introduction of a 25% tariff on Chinese gallium imports in 2019 led to initial stockpiling, which ultimately helped buffer later supply shocks when China implemented export controls.

Chinese content rules shake-up 

A second Trump administration would likely tighten restrictions on Chinese content in products receiving US government incentives, particularly in the electric vehicle supply chain, Fannon said in the fireside chat titled “What comes next? Insights into future US mining policy under a Second Trump Administration.”

“In the context of electric vehicle credits… if it comes from China, then it should not benefit from US taxpayer subsides,” he said, adding that the Biden administration’s allowance of “up to 25% Chinese content” would likely be scrapped as it “sends a mixed signal to the investment community.”

In September 2024, under President Biden, the US Trade Representative announced its final determination on Section 301 tariffs for Chinese critical minerals imports. The changes include a 25% tariff on indium, tantalum and chromium imports effective September 27, 2024, with additional tariff increases on other materials to be implemented in stages through 2026.

Fastmarkets assessed indium 99.99%, in-whs Rotterdam at $340-380 per kg on Wednesday December 4, unchanged since November 20, following a slight downward trend since October 23 but remaining largely stable.

The potential policy shift comes amid fresh concerns about Chinese control of critical mineral supply chains, highlighted by China’s expanded export controls on gallium and germanium implemented August 1, 2023, followed by restrictions on antimony exports from September 15, 2024, with new measures announced December 3 requiring stricter licensing and end-user reviews for exports to US entities.

Investment climate shift

The emphasis under a second Trump administration would shift from international forums to tangible development outcomes, according to Fannon.

“More convenience and more conferences don’t move tons… there’s going to be a very clear [key performance indicator]… Moving the tons of and the investment is the outcome,” he said.

The private sector’s role would be central to this approach.

“In our system, the government can establish parameters for action, but it doesn’t actually do anything… it’s the private sector that actually is the instrument,” Fannon said.

However, he warned that frequent policy changes between administrations create challenges for investors: “The pendulum swings we’re seeing [are] unhelpful for capital formation and creating a confidence to actually invest in certain jurisdictions, including the United States.”

Permitting reform potential

While permitting reform was initiated during Trump’s first term, the effort was disrupted by Covid-19, Fannon said. He indicated this would be revisited, as “you need to be able to build stuff.”

“How that’s tackled… I think that’s a bipartisan issue… How does one tackle it, how do we address it? What does reform look like, and how it can be for years is a very short point of time to address these long-term challenges,” he said.

Fannon pointed to state-level differences, citing Tesla’s move from California to Texas as an example: “Texas represented a place where you can build things. Capital is welcome.” 

He noted that most of America’s “battery belt” is in Republican-led states, despite federal funding being available nationwide.

“Permitting takes 10-15 years to [start up] a mine, with timelines of 20 years. That’s the biggest bottleneck to the business cases,” Rolf Kuby, director general of Euromines, told Fastmarkets in an exclusive interview at Resourcing Tomorrow.

International cooperation restructure

While existing international frameworks like the Minerals Security Partnership may continue, they would likely be restructured to focus more on concrete outcomes under a second Trump presidency, Fannon said. 

The Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) is a collaboration of 14 countries and the EU to catalyze public and private investment in responsible critical minerals supply chains. MSP partners include Australia, Canada, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, the UK the US and the EU.

“It’s very difficult to create multi-national fora and agreements… it is painstaking work and takes far too long,” Fannon said, drawing from his own government experience. While acknowledging these forums create an important foundation, he emphasized that “having the meeting is not the outcome.”

Instead, future cooperation would likely prioritize capital deployment.

“You’re going to see a bit of a different approach… which will have the convenience of government… But there’s going to be a focus on action and deployment of capital,” he said.

The shift back to security as the “north star” of US policy would necessitate continued international investment.

Fannon said: “There’s a clear recognition… that the US – even though we have an amazing minerals endowment – it’s the time horizon that’s necessary to develop them… and that means investment overseas and partnerships overseas.”

The post Security to replace climate as ‘north star’ of US minerals policy under Trump 2.0 appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Missed the webinar and want to catch up? Fill in the form here and you can watch a recording of the discussion.

Green steel push will come from customers

Customers will lead the green steel push, rather than regulation. Dempsey expressed his belief that the incoming second administration of President-elect Donald Trump will likely treat regulations with a light touch, leaving more room for free market exploration of what green steel is — and what the premium for it should be.

Unified definition of green steel isn’t needed

Not everyone defines green steel the same way — and that is OK. Charles said that a unified definition of green steel is not necessary to push the industry forward. Building on Dempsey’s comments, Charles said that customers will ultimately decide what level of green steel works best for their needs. Some may find electric-arc furnace (EAF) production satisfactory. Others will need to meet European requirements to export to that market. And some may eventually require zero-carbon options. But one thing is for sure — tiered pricing will emerge depending on the level of investment and effort needed to create ever-greener steel.

US customers shouldn’t foot bill for global green steel push

Market players are still reluctant to accept premiums for the world’s greenest steel. Alkaff pointed out that there is still some pushback from steel mill customers on accepting a green steel premium. Much of that stems from the US already possessing one of the greenest steel industries in the world due to the 70:30 split between EAF and integrated production. There is also the sense that the rest of the world could be doing more to decarbonize, and it is unfair to ask US customers to foot the bill for a global push.

Green steel revolution still a long time coming

Do not expect the green steel revolution to end anytime soon. Dempsey said that the decades of time and billions in investment that the US steel industry put into developing its scrap and steel industries will continue long into the future. Expect future steel initiatives to reach ever-higher environmental bars.

Too early to predict the direction of the green steel market entirely

Change takes time. All three panelists agreed that the movement is in its earliest days, and it is still a bit early to predict where definitions, premiums and policies may ultimately end up. On a long enough timeline, however, all three also agreed that some form of green steel will emerge as a distinct — and likely distinctly priced — product in the US market.

Fastmarkets carries both a US green steel differential and a US green steel base price.

The topic will be explored further at Fastmarkets’ Circular Steel Summit, slated for January 14-16 in Houston, Texas.

Discover how our suite of green steel prices can support your ‘green’ investment decisions while bringing transparency to the industry. Find out more.

The post Five key points from Fastmarkets’ US green steel webinar appeared first on Fastmarkets.

For others though, the bearish sentiment, slowing EV demand growth and low lithium prices represents an opportunity for Europe to rationalize its approach to batteries and EVs.

By revisiting subsidy and incentive programmes that support scaling of the entire value chain, and by leveraging technology/skills transfer and industrial partnerships with leading nations, Europe can refine its strategies to create a robust battery supply chain, according to Fastmarkets’ head of battery raw materials analytics, Paul Lusty.

Want to know more about the global BRM market outlook for 2025? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

Building the supply chain in Europe

With rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage, Europe has made efforts to build its own supply chain for battery production, but the continent has long been dependent on global suppliers – particularly those in Asia – for key battery components.

To counter this reliance and establish a robust, self-sufficient battery supply chain, the EU has rolled out a series of strategic legislative and investment initiatives aimed at stimulating domestic growth and innovation.

Central to this effort was the European Green Deal, which underscores the critical role of batteries in achieving climate neutrality by 2050. And the EU has introduced the Battery Regulation – a legal framework focusing on sustainability, recycling, and ethical sourcing of raw materials.

Recognizing the need for upstream investments, the EU has classified batteries as a Strategic Value Chain under its Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI) program.

This designation allows member states to channel public funds into research, development, and industrial projects without breaching EU state aid rules.

Additionally, the EU has created the European Battery Alliance (EBA), a public-private partnership designed to stimulate collaboration between governments, industry leaders and research institutions.

The EU is also imposing new emissions regulations that increase the price of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2025 to further incentivise EV demand.

Through these measures, Europe has laid the groundwork for a supply chain that spans raw materials extraction, refining, cell manufacturing and recycling.

However, the path to independence has been fraught with challenges, including securing the raw materials, scaling up production capacity and competing with established businesses from around the world.

And the slowdown in EV demand growth, coupled with a prolonged period of low lithium salts prices, has led to a series of bearish announcements from companies within the supply chain – from carmakers cutting staff and closing factories to battery producers filing for bankruptcy.

Reactions to the slowdown in EV demand

While the market has been gloomy about EV demand growth, Fastmarkets researchers expect year-on-year growth in 2024 to be around 29%. But while growth has been relatively strong, it has still been lower than expected, which contributed to the revision of operations by a number of automakers and battery supply chain companies in Europe.

Northvolt, for instance, which makes battery cells for EV batteries, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last week related to the expansion of its.Northvolt Ett gigafactory at Skellefteå in northeast Sweden. The company said operations there would continue during the process, including “fulfilling obligations to critical vendors and payment of wages to employees.”

The company said it aims to complete a restructuring process during the first quarter of 2025.

And Portuguese energy company Galp said it will not proceed with the construction of its Aurora lithium project in Portugal, following the news of Northvolt filing for Chapter 11. Northvolt decided to stop investing in Aurora in early 2024, Galp said.

Aurora, an equal joint venture between the two companies, was set up to develop Europe’s largest lithium conversion plant, with an annual production capacity of up to 35,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide. It was hailed by Northvolt as a stepping-stone for developing an integrated lithium-battery value chain when the partnership was announced in 2021.

Car manufacturing giant Volkswagen has said it is aiming to close at least three factories in Germany, cut tens of thousands of jobs and downsize all remaining plants, according to the company’s works council. The company reported deliveries of EVs were down by 4.7% year on year in January-September, which it attributed to “industry-wide buyer reluctance” to buy EVs.

“The biggest hurdle that we face in terms of EV demand growth in Europe – taking Germany as an example, after the government there axed EV subsidies – is affordability,” one market participant told Fastmarkets.

Germany’s government ended subsidies for EVs in December 2023 after revising its budget.

And leading US auto manufacturer, the Ford Motor Co, said in late November that it will reduce its European workforce by 4,000 positions by the end of 2027 – primarily in Germany and the UK.

“The global auto industry continues to be in a period of disruption, especially in Europe, where the industry faces unprecedented competitive, regulatory, and economic headwinds,” Ford said.

Falling battery raw material (BRM) prices

Lithium prices have been in steep decline throughout most of 2024, which has cut producer and refiner profit margins significantly and slowed the uptake of new projects in Europe.

Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide recently fell to their lowest level – on a midpoint basis – since Fastmarkets began assessing the market in 2017.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was $8-9 per kg on November 12, but has since rallied to $8.50-10.00 per kg on Monday December 3.

The lithium hydroxide price has fallen by more than 40% since the beginning of 2024 when it stood at $14.50-16.50 per kg.

Cobalt prices have also dipped, but not as rapidly as lithium, falling by around 18% since the start of the year.

And Fastmarkets’ price assessment for cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam, was $10.10-12.00 per lb on Tuesday December 3, down from $12.80-14.18 per lb at the beginning of the year.

Europe’s faltering supply chain

Reactions to automaker cutbacks and Northvolt filing for bankruptcy, as well as slowing EV demand growth amid falling BRM prices mainly point towards the view that Europe can still achieve its goal of an independent supply chain, but not without changes to its approach.

“I think it’s quite clear that we’re in a down-cycle across the batteries sector in the West,” one consumer told Fastmarkets. “The period of rapid initial growth dictated decision making around start-up strategies, investments, etc, and I think this is a correction of that.

“While there will be struggles ahead, I see this as a time to rationalize Europe’s approach to batteries and EVs. We see political pushback from the public and OEMs alike, although I don’t believe this will stop the train. A European battery sector can and will work with more refined strategies. If politicians want less dependence on China, then they will need to better facilitate this to get past the early adoption point on the curve,” the consumer added.

One producer said Northvolt filing for Chapter 11 protection was “more bad news that puts additional pressure on lithium hydroxide prices, because there is another player or customer in that market for battery-grade products that might completely disappear.

“But on the supply chain side, it’s a disaster for Europe that there is apparently not enough downstream demand from battery production to allow [cathode active material] (CAM) producers in Europe to be successful. [The question is,] how long will it take for that demand to pick up?” 

“From what we’ve seen on the demand side for batteries in Europe, it’s a consequence that those companies cannot survive here. We will probably need either demand to pick up or regulation that states we need European production for European cars. As long as that’s not the case [it will] always be more competitive to source those materials – up to and including batteries – from Asia,” the producer added.

Some sources criticized the EU for its lack of incentivisation.

“[Northvolt] shows cobalt has less of a future than we all thought for batteries – it’s proof of poor demand,” a trader said.

“The EU has too much bureaucracy and regulation and, as always, was busy encouraging the supply chain with one hand while cutting its legs off with the other,” the trader added.

And a consumer told Fastmarkets: “A lot of lessons have been learned and reality checks have been handed out. But infrastructure for day-to-day EV use is improving and costs are falling, so adoption will grow and the need for a domestic industry will be there.

“Pragmatic growth, with political willpower, will provide a future for European industry,” the consumer added.

Challenging growth landscape

Fastmarkets researchers forecast that European lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51% between 2024 and 2034, but the landscape for growth is challenging.

“We remain concerned that, in the current price environment, companies developing projects in Europe will struggle to access financing and advance project development,” Lusty said.

“Project development costs in Europe are relatively high, so it will struggle to compete on a cost basis with established centers of lithium production and opposition to mining projects is an ongoing challenge for the region,” he added.

Opportunities for Europe – collaboration

“Europe needs a local or regional supply chain because relying on one that is controlled by China is too big a risk, given the potential for escalation in geopolitical tensions,” according to Fastmarkets’ head of base metals and battery research, Will Adams.

“But it’s proving very hard to build, for numerous reasons – technical know-how, high capital expenditure and operating expenditure costs, low BRM prices and insufficient government support.

“One way or another, Europe’s lithium-ion battery chain will need significant government support or partnerships with those who already have the know-how and those who can bring in the finance,” Adams added.

Muthu Krishna, Fastmarkets battery manufacturing cost modeller said a collaborative approach would provide a viable route to a European supply chain.

“Yes, there is risk of relying on imports from China, but [focusing on] collaboration over competition, which allows for knowledge transfer to European partners while giving access to the European markets for the big Asian players, would be a win-win scenario,” Krishna said.

“As material supplies slip into deficit, which we forecast will occur during 2025, prices will rise. But these rises must now stabilize at a level that allows downstream OEM profitability (such as, not making battery packs too expensive) while at the same time enabling upstream players to make a profit and expand supply to meet demand,” Krishna added.

And Lusty said: “Europe has been focused on improving its supply chain resilience and the security of supplies of raw materials for years, but this appears to have done little to shelter it from the structural vulnerabilities of global supply chains and the complexity of energy transition markets or to improve its cost competitiveness.

“Policy levers will only it take it so far. A rapid pivoting of strategy is required, involving coordinated and sustained subsidy and incentive programmes that synchronously support the scaling of the entire value chain, plus technology/skills transfer and industrial partnerships with leading nations,” he added.

Want to know more about the global BRM market outlook for 2025? Get a detailed understanding of the issues: watch the webinar recording and access the slides when you fill in the form here. 

The post Europe’s battery supply chain at a crossroads in terms of challenges, opportunities appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The extension of the timing window will allow for an inclusive approach to the evolving low-carbon marketplace, allowing Fastmarkets to capture all reported transactions data under one robust differential.

The new specification is listed below:

MB-AL-0381 Aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, Europe, $/tonne
Carbon limit: 4tCO2e per tonne of aluminium produced, Scope 1 and 2 emissions
Quality: P1020A or 99.7% minimum Al purity (Si 0.10% max, Fe 0.20% max). Ingot
Quantity: Min 100 tonnes
Location: Europe
Timing:Up to 18 months
Unit: USD per tonne
Publication: Monthly, first Friday of the month, 4pm London.
Note: Includes spot and contract liquidity

The following inferred prices will be affected by this amendment:

MB-AL-0377 Aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dup Rotterdam, inferred low-carbon midpoint, $/tonne
MB-AL-0378 Aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam, inferred low-carbon midpoint, $/tonne

This differential is a part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

To provide feedback on this amendment, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter, please contact Imogen Dudman by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Imogen Dudman re: low-carbon aluminium.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, please go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Amendment to aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, Europe appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Germanium is primarily used as a substrate for gallium arsenide solar cells, which are core to space photovoltaic technology.

Each standard satellite requires approximately 6,000 to 15,000 germanium wafers for high-efficiency solar cells, with larger satellites requiring about tens of thousands, according to industry sources.

“A huge demand for germanium wafers in satellites is expected, driven by the rising number of satellite launches. Moreover, the production process involves raw material loss, meaning the supply of germanium wafers won’t scale linearly with the availability of raw materials,” a market source told Fastmarkets. 

Yunnan Germanium, which is a leading germanium and germanium product supplier, has an annual production capacity of 300,000 four-inch germanium wafers and 200,000 six-inch wafers, according to its 2023 annual report.

China has planned several satellite internet constellation projects, some of which have already entered the implementation phase. The total scale of these projects reaches 40,000 satellites, which are expected to contribute market demand for germanium in China, sources said.

The GW constellation, led by China Satellite Network Group, plans to launch 12,992 satellites, as indicated in International Telecommunication Union (ITU)’s data. 

The “Qianfan (G60)” constellation, led by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, with a total scale exceeding 15,000 satellites, began its satellite launches in November 2019. The first 18 satellites were successfully launched in August 2024. 

The G60 Constellation is expected to complete the launch of 108 satellites by the end of 2024, with 648 satellites providing regional network coverage to be launched by the end of 2025. More than 15,000 low Earth orbit satellites are expected to be launched by the end of 2030. The Honghu-3 constellation, which is led by Hongqing Technology, also plans to launch 10,000 satellites, according to ITU’s data.

Meanwhile, major satellite programs in other regions are also advancing. United States-based Starlink program has already launched more than 5,000 low-earth orbit satellites, according to the UCS Satellite Database.

China’s first commercial spaceport, Hainan commercial spaceport, also launched successfully on November 30, according to an announcement from the CNSA on December 1.

Downstream demand may rise across the board, albeit amid supply disruptions

In addition to its application in space solar cells, germanium is also an important material in the fields of infrared optics, fiber optic communications and semiconductors, according to sources.

The increase in germanium prices this year had been linked to rising demand for military infrared devices driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts, sources told Fastmarkets.

China implemented export controls on germanium-related items, which started from August 1, 2023, leading to a sharp decline in exports and a global supply chain disruption, with export levels yet to return to pre-control figures, according to Chinese customs data. 

Germanium was listed among the top 10 priority materials that could face significant supply chain disruption, according to the UK Criticality Assessment published by the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre on November 28, which focused on the vulnerability to supply disruption of minerals in an increasingly diversified UK economy. 

Tighter restrictions on exports of several dual-use items, including licensing restrictions on germanium materials to the US were also announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce and came into effect on Tuesday.

China’s export restrictions have also led to an increase in germanium prices overseas, given that the country is a major supplier in the global market, sources said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs Rotterdam, was $2,850-3,000 per kg on November 29, unchanged from November 27. The price had risen by about 97% from $1,400-1,550 per kg on August 2, 2023.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China was 18,000-19,000 yuan ($2,470-2,607) per kg on November 29, unchanged from a week earlier. The price had climbed by about 76.2% from 10,000-11,000 yuan per kg on June 7.

The post Demand for solar germanium expected to grow on increase in satellite launches | 2025 preview appeared first on Fastmarkets.