MB-NIO-0001 Nickel ore with 1.8% nickel content, cif China, $/tonne
https://dashboard.fastmarkets.com/p/MB-NIO-0001
Quality: 1.8% Ni, 15-20% Fe, Water content 30-35%, Si:Mg ratio <2
Quantity: 50,000 tonnes
Location: cif China
Unit: USD per tonne
Payment terms: Letter of Credit
Publication: Weekly. Friday 2-3pm London time

This price is a part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

The consultation period for the proposal will start on Friday December 27 and end on Friday January 24, with the amendment, subject to feedback, taking effect from Friday January 31.

To provide feedback on this 1.8% nickel ore price or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Dylan Duan and Laura Li by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Dylan Duan and Laura Li re: nickel ore with 1.8% nickel content, cif China.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Proposal to amend name of nickel ore 1.8% basis 15-20% Fe water content: 30-35% Si:Mg ratio<2 lot size 50,000 tonnes, cif China: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

Price recap

Prices for magnetic raw materials dropped in unison at the start of the year. By the summer, dysprosium had lost 30% of its value, terbium was down by 27%, and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) had fallen by 17%.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $230-280 per kg on July 18, compared with $350-380 per kg on January 4 (all prices including value-added tax). Terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China dropped to $730-795 per kg on July 11, compared with $980-1,100 per kg on January 4. And prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China slid to $50-52 per kg on June 13, compared with $60-63 per kg on January 4.

Week after week, suppliers attempted to raise offer prices only to be met with weak or absent demand from China’s huge downstream magnet sector. At the end of the summer, sellers reported an increase in purchases and prices began to move up. But the recovery began to lose steam in October and prices started falling again.

Prices for NdPr have partially recovered from the summer lows, last assessed at $55-57 per kg on December 19, down by 9% from the start of 2024. Terbium is now down by 22% from January 4 at $770-850 per kg. But dysprosium prices have fallen further, standing at $220-270 per kg on December 19, a drop of 33% from January 4.

In 2024, only two producers — Chinese state-owned major Northern Rare Earth and Australian major Lynas Rare Earths — said they had been able to retain a positive margin for refining rare earths and both reported steep declines in profits.

“The rare earths industry is swimming in red ink,” industry expert Constantine Karayannopoulos said, referring to the widespread financial losses across the sector.

Near-term outlook

“I don’t expect any major changes coming into Chinese New Year [January 28-February 4], but after the first quarter it could get tough,” Melvin Hill, vice president of GE Chaplin, told Fastmarkets.

This assessment was echoed by Jan Giese, senior manager for rare earths and minor metals at Tradium. “I’m pretty pessimistic for next year at this point. However, I’m not sure it has too much room to fall,” he said.

Lynas Rare Earths gave a downbeat but open-ended assessment in the chairman’s address to the annual general meeting on November 27: “Prices are likely to remain volatile until there is a strengthening in the Chinese economy” — a timely reminder that two-thirds of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnet demand goes into legacy applications that are heavily exposed to China’s housing and construction sector.

But there was some more positive sentiment, particularly further out.

“I am pretty optimistic that by some time in 2025 or the first half of 2026 you will start to see inventories being whittled down and prices starting to increase,” Karayannopoulos said. “Fairly large inventories built up in 2023 and the first half of 2024 because of weaker than expected [magnet] demand caused by relatively negative consumer sentiment and political uncertainty — particularly about EV mandates outside China”.

Magnet demand

Global rare earth magnet demand is expected to keep rising in 2025 — as it has for the past five years — but not as fast as previously expected, according to John Ormerod, head of magnetics at metal consultancy JOC LLC.

“Most experts were looking at a 9% increase by volume next year. But I think we will be closer to 5%,” he said, pointing to the state of the Chinese economy, rare material pricing and the growth and mix of electrified vehicles.

A key theme of 2024 has been the resurgence of hybrids over pure electric. Hybrids also use high-performance NdFeB magnet motors, but with smaller output and using around a third the amount of magnets as a full electric vehicle.

Wildcards

Fundamentally opaque and exposed to political policy risk — the unpredictable nature of rare earth markets has been a constant theme for years. Fastmarkets asked market experts about the broader risks and factors facing the industry next year.

“For me, the really big question for the market next year is Myanmar. The Kachin Independence Army has taken control of the rare earth mining area in Myanmar and China has closed the border. No ammonium sulphate is going in and no rare earths are coming out,” Thomas Kruemmer, founder of The Rare Earths Observer, said.

“Chinese imports of raw materials from Myanmar were 40,000 tonnes during the first nine months of 2024. If that production drops out, there will be a big impact on [heavy] rare earth prices,” he said.

But not everyone agreed. “It has been an unstable situation ever since they started mining down there. I think you would have seen a bigger [price] reaction,” an industry source said. “Now if raw material imports were included in Chinese production quotas, that would have a big impact on supply and really push up prices.”

Imports of rare earth raw materials to China are exempt from the refining and smelting production quotas issued several times a year. Large increases in raw material supply have been cited by some as a factor in the apparent mismatch between supply and demand.

Other industry sources were quick to dispel the notion of a radical policy shake-up, describing such a move as “irrational.”

“I expect the Chinese regulators to try to tighten supply a bit to allow prices to rise to levels allowing more consistent profitability through the supply chain and to make sure the rare earths industry isn’t a subsidy provider to the EV industry in China. It can’t be — it’s too small,” a second industry source said.

US tariffs

“My top concern is that rare earths will get thrown onto the tariff list and they won’t differentiate between neodymium-praseodymium oxide, which the US does produce, and neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide, which it does not,” Hill said. “If you look at the HS codes, a lot of rare earths fall under the same ones. There could be a lot of collateral damage.”

Any discussion of new trade restrictions inevitably raises the question of retaliation, however likely or unlikely it may be.

“If you look at the list of critical materials that China has put under restrictions, there aren’t that many left anymore,” Giese said.

The post What will happen to rare earth markets in 2025? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

If you have any comments on the discontinuation of the lithium contract prices, please contact Zihao Li or Ewan Thomson by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading: “FAO: Zihao Li/Ewan Thomson re: Lithium contract price discontinuation.”

Please indicate if your comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and, upon request, will make comments not marked as confidential available.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, please go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Discontinuation of lithium contract price assessments: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The affected prices are in the Fastmarkets Ags, Ags Grains, Industrial Ags, Oils, Fats, Animal Proteins and Biofuels pricing packages.

For more information, or to provide feedback on the publication of these assessments, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these assessments, please contact Chloe Krimmel by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Chloe Krimmel, re: US agricultural products price assessments.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, go to: https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Pause in publication of US agricultural products price assessments appeared first on Fastmarkets.

MB-CU-0403 Copper grade A cathode premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0380 Copper grade A cathode ER premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0384 Copper grade A cathode SX-EW premium, cif Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0405 Copper grade A cathode premium, in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0383 Copper grade A cathode ER premium, bonded in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne
MB-CU-0382 Copper grade A cathode SX-EW premium, bonded in-whs Shanghai, $/tonne

These premiums are a part of the Fastmarkets Base Metals package.

For more information or to provide feedback on the delayed publication of these premiums or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these premiums, please contact Callum Perry by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Callum Perry, re: Copper Shanghai Premiums.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Delayed publication of Shanghai copper premiums appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The post Early publication of US agricultural products price assessments appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The second amendment extends the timing window to include any transaction data concluded within up to 18 months, from three months previously. The extension of the timing window will allow for an inclusive approach to an evolving low-carbon marketplace, allowing Fastmarkets to capture all reported transaction data under one robust differential. No negative feedback was received during the consultation period.  

The new specifications for the differentials will be as follows (changes in italics):

MB-AL-0389 Aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, US Midwest, US cents/lb
Carbon limit: 4tCO2e per tonne of aluminium produced, Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Quality: P1020A or 99.7% minimum Al purity (Si 0.10% max, Fe 0.20% max). Ingot, T-bar, sow
Quantity: Min 100 tonnes
Location: Delivered consumer works Midwest, differential on top of P1020A premium and exchange-listed aluminum price.
Unit: US cents per pound
Timing: Up to 18 months
Publication: Monthly, first Friday of the month, 3-4pm London time.

MB-AL-0390 Aluminium low-carbon differential value-added product, US Midwest, US cents/lb
Carbon limit: 4tCO2e per tonne of aluminium produced, Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Type: Extrusion billet, primary foundry alloy, wire rod, slab
Quantity: Min 100 tonnes
Location: Delivered into US Midwest region, differential on top of value-added product premium and exchange-listed aluminum price
Unit: US cents per pound
Timing: Up to 18 months
Publication: Monthly, first Friday of the month, 3-4pm London time.

These prices are a part of the Fastmarkets base metals package.

To provide feedback on this price, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Yasemin Esmen by email at pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Yasemin Esmen, re: US low-carbon aluminium differentials.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

The post Amendment to frequency and timing window of US low-carbon aluminium differentials: pricing notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

The specification for US Export SBS to Mexico is as follows:

Description: Solid bleached sulfate board, US export 16-pt folding carton C1S, fob Laredo, Texas, $/tonne

Quality (basis weight/strength, brightness): Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated on one side.

Quantity: 500-10,000 tonnes/year

Location: United States, Laredo, TX, border crossing

Incoterm: Free on Board

Timing: Orders taken in the month to date for shipment in the current month or the following month.

Unit: Metric tonne

Payment terms: Assume normal and customary payment terms.

Publication: Monthly. Usually at 4.30pm Eastern time on the 3^rd Friday of the month. See full schedule online.

Notes: Price assessments reflect prices before discounts.

The specification for Mexico domestic coated recycled kraft/grey back paperboard is as follows:

Description: Recycled folding boxboard, coated kraft/grey back 320-325 g/m2 or 16-pt, delivered Mexico, peso/tonne

Quality (basis weight/strength, brightness): Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated on one side.

Quantity: 100-150 tonnes/year

Location: Mexico

Incoterm: Delivered Mexico City, Monterrey areas

Timing: Orders taken in the month to date for shipment in the current month or the following month.

Unit: Metric tonne

Payment terms: Assume normal and customary payment terms.

Publication: Monthly. On the third or fourth Tuesday of each month. See full schedule online.

Notes: Price assessments reflect the range in which the bulk of transactions took place. Prices are for prime-quality tonnage with normal trims. Coated in one side.

Jan. 17, Jan. 21 startup. The new prices start with the export SBS level reported in Fastmarkets’ PPI Pulp & Paper Week on Jan. 17, 2025, and the Mexico domestic kraft/grey back CRB level reported in Fastmarkets’ PPI Latin America on Jan. 21, 2025. The prices will run each month on a similar schedule. The prices also are reported online.

 If you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter, please contact nola.valente@fastmarkets.com for the US pricing, contact sandy.oliveira@fastmarkets.com for the Mexico domestic pricing, and or contact grudder@fastmarkets.com and mfaleiros@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: US export SBS pricing for Mexico and Mexico domestic pricing for CRB.”

To see all Fastmarkets RISI pricing methodology and specification documents see here.

To see all Fastmarkets RISI pricing notices please see here.

The post Launch of US and Mexico Boxboard Prices: Pricing Notice appeared first on Fastmarkets.

This consultation, which closed December 19, 2024, seeks to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under indexation, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes all elements of our pricing process, our price specifications and publication frequency.

You can find the current methodology for LL and WBM here.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology/forest-products

The post Open consultation on methodology for Log Lines (LL) and Woodfiber and Biomass Markets (WBM) – Final decision appeared first on Fastmarkets.

He employed the use of import tariffs and other duties throughout his first term as president, including on aluminium and steel. And for his second term, Trump is particularly focused on upping the ante on China and has said he plans to introduce new duties “from day one” of taking office on January 20.

To that end, market participants expect the president-elect to come out of the gate all guns blazing – largely because Trump has already outlined his plans to impose a 25% tax on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico, with an additional 10% tariff going on to goods from China, taking those tariffs up to 60%.

Tariffs will stay in place, he wrote on his own social media platform Truth Social, “until the inflow of drugs and illegal immigration into the United States comes to an end.”

He has also talked about a 10% universal tariff on all goods imported into the US, which he said would raise billions to reduce the deficit and allow the government to pay for social and industrial programs.

Whether all these tariffs materialize is another matter, however.

From his statements so far, Trump plans to use some of the proposed tariffs as a bargaining tool to secure leverage on specific measures. That means if Trump secures the concessions he wants, the tariffs might be avoided.

What is not yet clear is whether he will embrace slightly softer “carrot” tactics or double-down on a less conciliatory “stick” approach.

If the incoming US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has anything to do with it, the approach will be more moderate – Bessent has called for tariffs to be “gradual,” and has described the 60% China tariff threat as a “maximalist negotiating position.”

Economists warn that tariffs are also inflationary, would lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, thereby raising the prospect of higher interest rates.

Nonetheless, the consensus is that, whatever else happens, the future Trump administration will implement a 60% tariff against China. Pundits are also broadly betting that the floated 10% universal tariff will come into effect as part of a plan to slash US debt and generate revenues to be used elsewhere.

In theory, a 10% tariff on the $3.1 trillion of goods imported into the United States in 2023 would raise $310 billion. In practise, a universal tariff is likely to have exemptions, such as services and oil & gas, and would reduce import volumes – meaning the overall revenue generated while still impressive, will almost certainly be lower.

Looking to history, the Nixon shock in 1971 saw a 10% surcharge applied to half of all goods, while in 1930, the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act applied to just over half of all goods. Observers have said that a universal tariff is likely to be of a similar order of magnitude, although it’s important to note that both political decisions were key factors leading to subsequent severe economic recessions.

Commodities in focus

Until Trump moves into the White House and action is taken, the “not knowing” is wreaking havoc in the commodity markets, with market participants working to lock-in terms for supply contracts despite have no certainty about the economics behind their deals.

Of course, tariffs aren’t new to the commodities markets and outgoing president Joe Biden kept the Trump-era tariffs in place for China and imposed some more of his own – including a 100% tax on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and a 25% tax on lithium-ion batteries, along with steel and aluminium products.

The US steel market has broadly cheered the prospect of additional tariffs in 2025, having benefited heavily from protectionist measures in Trump’s first term in office.

Steel market participants in Mexico and Canada, however, appear less impressed, and leaders of both countries have already had conversations with Trump in an apparent effort to head off tariffs.

Trump has said that he plans to notify Mexico and Canada of his intention to use the six-year renegotiating provision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to strike better deals – notably with regard to the automotive sector.

For aluminium market participants, it’s déjà vu – all over again.

The US Aluminum Association has already emphasized its view that tariff-free access to the imported Canadian aluminium it so heavily relies on, must be maintained.

It’s an often-overlooked fact that three out of every four cars sold in America contains aluminium from Canada, while one out of every three car and truck wheels manufactured in the US contains aluminium produced in Canada by Rio Tinto. Parts cross the border sometimes more than half-a-dozen times before finishing in a vehicle that ends up in a sales lot in either the US or Canada.

This integrated supply chain has been in existence for decades and provides a competitive advantage to the two countries.

After all, there’s no such thing as an American car – there are US companies, brands and operations, but supply chains are integrated and global.

Tit for tat

As was the case during Trump’s first term, tariffs are likely to lead to retaliatory actions.

In response to tariffs on steel and aluminium during Trump’s first administration, countermeasures were imposed in response. Canada imposed tariffs on aluminium and certain types of American steel as well as yoghurt, whiskey and roasted coffee, while the European Union slapped taxes on products ranging from bourbon to Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Agricultural commodities were very much used as fodder in a tariff war during the first Trump administration, and there’s concern that this situation will be revived.

China hit back against the tariffs with its own taxes on imports of soybeans and pork, a move calculated to weaken Trump’s support among farmers. Since then, China has been diversifying its sources of agricultural commodities, such as corn, soybeans and sorghum – products that it  typically buys from the US.

This time around, the prospect of tariffs on Mexican tequila and beer have been mooted, while Canada could revive its previous tariffs on products including whisky, ketchup, liquorice, and toilet paper, market observers told Fastmarkets.

There is also a risk that the re-routing of goods – when companies export products to the US relabelled via a third country with a lower import tariff – will grow if widespread tariffs are imposed.

This has been common practice in recent years, leading the Biden administration to impose measures to ensure that Mexican aluminium imports had not been smelted or cast in China, Russia, Belarus or Iran and that imported steel from Mexico had been melted or poured in North America.

China still has some powerful weapons in its arsenal, not least its own restrictions on products imported into the US.

China is already crimping supplies to the US of critical minerals on which the latter relies for defence and semi-conductors, such as gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite.

The Asian country could easily expand its restrictions to other products that the US relies on, such as rare earths. Tariffs are a two-way conversation, and China may well have some of its own “trump cards” to play.

In Hotter Commodities, special correspondent Andrea Hotter covers some of the biggest stories impacting the natural resources sector. Sign up today to receive Andrea’s content as it is published.

The post Trump tariffs 2.0 | Hotter Commodities appeared first on Fastmarkets.