Price recap

Prices for magnetic raw materials dropped in unison at the start of the year. By the summer, dysprosium had lost 30% of its value, terbium was down by 27%, and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) had fallen by 17%.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $230-280 per kg on July 18, compared with $350-380 per kg on January 4 (all prices including value-added tax). Terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China dropped to $730-795 per kg on July 11, compared with $980-1,100 per kg on January 4. And prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China slid to $50-52 per kg on June 13, compared with $60-63 per kg on January 4.

Week after week, suppliers attempted to raise offer prices only to be met with weak or absent demand from China’s huge downstream magnet sector. At the end of the summer, sellers reported an increase in purchases and prices began to move up. But the recovery began to lose steam in October and prices started falling again.

Prices for NdPr have partially recovered from the summer lows, last assessed at $55-57 per kg on December 19, down by 9% from the start of 2024. Terbium is now down by 22% from January 4 at $770-850 per kg. But dysprosium prices have fallen further, standing at $220-270 per kg on December 19, a drop of 33% from January 4.

In 2024, only two producers — Chinese state-owned major Northern Rare Earth and Australian major Lynas Rare Earths — said they had been able to retain a positive margin for refining rare earths and both reported steep declines in profits.

“The rare earths industry is swimming in red ink,” industry expert Constantine Karayannopoulos said, referring to the widespread financial losses across the sector.

Near-term outlook

“I don’t expect any major changes coming into Chinese New Year [January 28-February 4], but after the first quarter it could get tough,” Melvin Hill, vice president of GE Chaplin, told Fastmarkets.

This assessment was echoed by Jan Giese, senior manager for rare earths and minor metals at Tradium. “I’m pretty pessimistic for next year at this point. However, I’m not sure it has too much room to fall,” he said.

Lynas Rare Earths gave a downbeat but open-ended assessment in the chairman’s address to the annual general meeting on November 27: “Prices are likely to remain volatile until there is a strengthening in the Chinese economy” — a timely reminder that two-thirds of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnet demand goes into legacy applications that are heavily exposed to China’s housing and construction sector.

But there was some more positive sentiment, particularly further out.

“I am pretty optimistic that by some time in 2025 or the first half of 2026 you will start to see inventories being whittled down and prices starting to increase,” Karayannopoulos said. “Fairly large inventories built up in 2023 and the first half of 2024 because of weaker than expected [magnet] demand caused by relatively negative consumer sentiment and political uncertainty — particularly about EV mandates outside China”.

Magnet demand

Global rare earth magnet demand is expected to keep rising in 2025 — as it has for the past five years — but not as fast as previously expected, according to John Ormerod, head of magnetics at metal consultancy JOC LLC.

“Most experts were looking at a 9% increase by volume next year. But I think we will be closer to 5%,” he said, pointing to the state of the Chinese economy, rare material pricing and the growth and mix of electrified vehicles.

A key theme of 2024 has been the resurgence of hybrids over pure electric. Hybrids also use high-performance NdFeB magnet motors, but with smaller output and using around a third the amount of magnets as a full electric vehicle.

Wildcards

Fundamentally opaque and exposed to political policy risk — the unpredictable nature of rare earth markets has been a constant theme for years. Fastmarkets asked market experts about the broader risks and factors facing the industry next year.

“For me, the really big question for the market next year is Myanmar. The Kachin Independence Army has taken control of the rare earth mining area in Myanmar and China has closed the border. No ammonium sulphate is going in and no rare earths are coming out,” Thomas Kruemmer, founder of The Rare Earths Observer, said.

“Chinese imports of raw materials from Myanmar were 40,000 tonnes during the first nine months of 2024. If that production drops out, there will be a big impact on [heavy] rare earth prices,” he said.

But not everyone agreed. “It has been an unstable situation ever since they started mining down there. I think you would have seen a bigger [price] reaction,” an industry source said. “Now if raw material imports were included in Chinese production quotas, that would have a big impact on supply and really push up prices.”

Imports of rare earth raw materials to China are exempt from the refining and smelting production quotas issued several times a year. Large increases in raw material supply have been cited by some as a factor in the apparent mismatch between supply and demand.

Other industry sources were quick to dispel the notion of a radical policy shake-up, describing such a move as “irrational.”

“I expect the Chinese regulators to try to tighten supply a bit to allow prices to rise to levels allowing more consistent profitability through the supply chain and to make sure the rare earths industry isn’t a subsidy provider to the EV industry in China. It can’t be — it’s too small,” a second industry source said.

US tariffs

“My top concern is that rare earths will get thrown onto the tariff list and they won’t differentiate between neodymium-praseodymium oxide, which the US does produce, and neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide, which it does not,” Hill said. “If you look at the HS codes, a lot of rare earths fall under the same ones. There could be a lot of collateral damage.”

Any discussion of new trade restrictions inevitably raises the question of retaliation, however likely or unlikely it may be.

“If you look at the list of critical materials that China has put under restrictions, there aren’t that many left anymore,” Giese said.

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High-performance sintered NdFeB magnets are used in the motors of electric and hybrid vehicles, along with other applications.

“There are many good reasons to set up a project in India — a large domestic market, highly skilled workforce and a fast-growing manufacturing sector,” he added.

Crucially, the project also has domestic political support. Indian state-owned rare earths producer Irel put out a call for expressions of interest in setting up a NdFeB magnet plant in 2020. Irel said it will supply separated rare earth oxides for the project, to create a fully vertically integrated supply chain for manufacturing NdFeB rare earth magnets for the automotive sector and samarium cobalt (SmCo) rare earth magnets for the defense sector.

Trafalgar has purchased a 45,000-square-meter site in the western province of Gujarat and funded phase 1 of the project. This is scheduled for completion in 2026, with production capacity for 100 tonnes per year of neodymium-praseodymium metal and 115 tpy of SmCo alloy, with first production of sintered NdFeB magnets anticipated shortly afterward.

“The biggest challenge is developing a cost-competitive India-centric rare earth magnet business that can compete with Chinese production,” Higgins said.

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MB-ZIR-0022 Zircon, premium grade, 66.5% ZrO2 min, cif Spain, $/tonne.
MB-ZIR-0014 Zircon, premium grade, 66.5% ZrO2 min, bulk, cif China, $/tonne.
MB-ZIR-0015 Zircon, standard grade, 65.5% ZrO2 min, cif China, $/tonne.

These prices are a part of the Fastmarkets Industrial Minerals package.

For more information or to provide feedback on the delayed publication of this price or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact Caroline Messecar by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading “FAO: Caroline Messecar, re: zircon.” Please indicate if comments are confidential. 

Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology. 

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“Also, Northern Rare Earth Group’s third-quarter rare earth concentrate prices showed only a slight decrease compared with the second quarter, with little change overall,” he added.

Major producer Northern Rare Earth also kept its guide prices for July unchanged from the previous month.

Light rare earth product NdPr is the main rare earth component of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets. A finished magnet contains around one-third NdPr.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China, stayed at $50-52 per kg on July 11, while the corresponding assessment for neodymium-praseodymium metal (Nd 75% Pr 25%), fob China, remained at $62-64 per kg on the same day, both unchanged since June 13.

The stability in the Chinese NdPr markets extended to the light rare earth products in Europe mainly used in non-magnetic applications.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam, was unchanged on July 11 at $53-55 per kg, and the assessment was also flat at $53-55 per kg for praseodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam, on the same day.

Chinese heavy rare earth magnetics prices fall

The effect of falling heavy rare earth prices was made clear by earnings guidance released on July 9 by the world’s largest heavy rare earth producer, China Rare Earth Group.

It expected to report a first-half loss of 231-251 million yuan ($32-34 million) compared with profit of nearly 172 million yuan in the first half of 2023. The producer cited unfavorable market conditions as the main reason behind the loss.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China, fell to $245-295 per kg on July 11, from $250-300 per kg on July 4.

Dysprosium and terbium are added in trace amounts to NdFeB magnets to improve performance at high temperatures in the drivetrains of electric and hybrid vehicles and in other applications.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for dysprosium metal, min 99%, fob China, dropped to $310-340 per kg on July 11, from $320-345 per kg a week earlier, and the price of ferro-dysprosium 80%, fob China, fell to $240-255 per kg, down by $5 per kg from $245-260 per kg on July 4.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China, fell to $730-795 per kg on July 11, from $740-805 per kg on July 4, while the price for terbium metal, min 99.9%, fob China, dropped to $910-970 per kg on Thursday, from $940-1,000 per kg a week earlier.

“Downstream inquiries and purchasing enthusiasm are low for dysprosium and terbium, with buyers tending to buy when prices are rising rather than falling. I have no deals and need to monitor the market,” a producer said.

Meanwhile, Chinese export prices for high-purity gadolinium oxide, which is used in non-magnetic applications including aerospace, healthcare and nuclear power, have remained flat for six consecutive weeks.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for gadolinium oxide 99.99%-99.999%, fob China, stayed at $28-31 per kg on July 11.

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Commissioning and ramp up is scheduled for the middle of 2025, with an estimated throughput capacity of 1,500 tonnes per year of a mixed heavy rare earth compound called SEGH (samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium).

No initial estimates on dysprosium and terbium production capacity were available at the time of publishing.

Lynas owns and operates the Mount Weld rare earth mine in Western Australia and is one of the world’s largest producers of light rare earth product neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide – the main rare earth raw material for neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets. NdPr comprises about a third of a finished magnet.

Lynas produced 6,142 tonnes of NdPr oxide in its financial year ended June 30 2023 and 4,151 tonnes in July 2023-April 2024. It recently completely upgrade work to increase its NdPr oxide capacity in Malaysia to 10,500 tonnes per year from 7,200 tpy. 

To function at high temperatures inside the drivetrain of electric and hybrid vehicles, high-performance NdFeB magnets also require trace amounts of heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium, a product for which there is currently no commercial production outside of China. 

“This is game over for China’s dominance of heavy rare earths,” Christopher Ecclestone, principal at mining consultancy Hallgarten, said.

The capital expenditure for the heavy rare earth production capacity in Malaysia is $25 million and will be provided from the Lynas Malaysia industrial plan, the company said in a statement.

The project will expand its heavy rare earth product range to five – dysprosium, terbium, holmium concentrate, unseparated SEGH concentrate and unseparated SEGH. 

Lynas is also developing production capacity for light and heavy rare earth products in the US and has received funding of close to $300 million from the US Department of Defense.

Start-up of the plant, located in Seadrift Texas, is scheduled for 2025-2026, with an estimated production capacity of 1,000-1,300 tpy of light rare earth NdPr oxide and 2,500-3,000 tpy of heavy rare earth oxides.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China was $50-52 per kg on June 20, unchanged from the preceding assessment.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China was $255-305 per kg on the same date, also unchanged from the week prior.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China was also flat at $790-855 per kg on June 20.

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Neodymium-praseodymium is the main rare earth raw material used in neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets and makes up around a third of a finished magnet.

Major producer China Northern Rare Earth cut its guide prices for June after raising prices in the previous month, in an attempt to achieve higher prices for its products following a protracted period of price falls driven by sluggish demand.

Northern Rare Earth lowered its June price for neodymium-praseodymium oxide to 384,800 yuan ($53,085) per tonne, down by 8,400 yuan per tonne from 393,200 yuan per tonne in May. It also lowered its price for neodymium-praseodymium metal to 478,000 yuan per tonne, down by 10,000 yuan per tonne from 488,000 yuan per tonne in May, the company said on Monday.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for the neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China price fell to $51-53 per kg on June 6, down by $1 per kg from $52-54 per kg on May 30.

And Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium-praseodymium metal (Nd 75% Pr 25%), fob China dropped to $63-65 per kg on June 6, down by $2 per kg from $65-67 per kg seven days earlier.

The market reaction in Europe was more muted, with prices for praseodymium oxide unchanged and prices for neodymium oxide edging down slightly week on week. Neodymium oxide has growing applications in automotive catalysts and water treatment chemicals, and praseodymium oxide is mainly used in the glass industry in Europe.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for praseodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam was unchanged week on week at $56-57 per kg on June 6. Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ price assessment for neodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam narrowed downward by $3 per kg to $55-57 per kg from $55-60 per kg a week earlier.

Prices fall for heavy rare earth magnetic materials

Dysprosium and terbium export prices fell again this week, in line with lower domestic prices driven by weak demand.

“Buyers are reluctant to accept higher prices, so if we want to conclude deals the prices will be lower. It is hard to maintain prices at a higher level considering the sluggish market,” a second producer said.

Dysprosium and terbium are added in trace amounts to NdFeB magnets to improve their performance at higher temperatures.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $260-310 per kg on June 6, down by $10 per kg from $270-320 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium metal min 99%, fob China dropped to $335-360 per kg on June 6, down by $10 per kg from $345-370 per kg on May 30. And Fastmarkets’ price assessment for ferro-dysprosium 80%, fob China fell to $255-270 per kg on June 6, down by $5 per kg from $260-275 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China dropped to $800-830 per kg on June 6, down by $30 per kg from $830-860 per kg on May 30. Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ price assessment for terbium metal min 99.9%, fob China dropped to $1,020-1,060 per kg, down by $40-50 per kg from $1,070-1,100 per kg a week earlier.

Export prices for high-purity gadolinium oxide, which has applications in aerospace and healthcare, were unchanged from the previous week due to relatively stable domestic prices, although demand remains weak.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for gadolinium oxide 99.99%-99.999%, fob China remained at $28-31 per kg on June 6, unchanged from May 30.

Access all the Fastmarkets rare earths prices, news and market analysis. Your guide to market trends, pricing dynamics and the global rare earths supply chain.

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Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for the neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China price fell to $52-54 per kg on May 30, from $54-56 per kg a week earlier.

Neodymium-praseodymium is the largest rare earth component of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets and makes up around a third of a finished magnet.

Prices also fell for Fastmarkets’ neodymium-praseodymium metal (Nd 75% Pr 25%), fob China to $65-67 per kg on May 30, from $67-69 per kg on May 23.

“China’s praseodymium-neodymium market has recently been experiencing a sustained decline in prices that is largely attributable to low demand from buyers in the NdFeB magnet sector,” a producer said.

In Europe market conditions were quiet, and prices for neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide – both primarily used in non-magnetic applications – were unchanged on the previous week.

Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for neodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam held at $55-60 per kg on May 30, unchanged from May 23. And Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for praseodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam was also unchanged at $55-56 per kg.

Neodymium oxide has applications in automotive catalysts and water treatment chemicals and praseodymium oxide is mainly used in the glass industry in Europe.

Heavy rare earth markets fall

“We only received a few enquiries and orders for dysprosium and terbium this week, and the lack of demand is putting pressure on the whole market. There are some sellers withholding sales, but the downward trend is unstoppable,” the trader said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China fell to $270-320 per kg on May 30, from $280-330 per kg on May 23.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium metal min 99% fob China dropped to $345-370 per kg on May 30 from $355-380 per kg on May 23. And Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for ferro-dysprosium 80% fob China fell to $260-275 per kg, from $275-280 per kg a week earlier.

Dysprosium and terbium are added in trace amounts to NdFeB magnets to improve performance at higher temperatures.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China fell to $830-860 per kg on May 30, from $890-920 per kg on May 23. And Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for terbium metal min 99.9%, fob China dropped to $1,070-1,100 per kg, from $1,110-1,140 per kg a week earlier.

Chinese export prices for high-purity gadolinium, used in health care and aerospace, fell on lower domestic prices and weak demand.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for gadolinium oxide 99.99%-99.999% fob China fell to $28-31 per kg on May 30, down by $1 per kg from $29-32 per kg on May 23.

“Sentiment is weaker because of low demand, and high-purity gadolinium oxide prices have been also under downward pressure. I will keep monitoring the market to see if there will be any changes in June,” a second producer said.

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Imports of Chinese permanent magnets will be subject to a 25% tariff beginning in 2026, the White House statement said.

“There are several types of permanent magnet but around 80% of the market is dominated by two of them: sintered neodymium iron boron [NdFeB] rare earth magnets, and hard ferrite magnets,” John Ormerod, head of magnetics and metal consultancy JOC, said.

Other types include samarium cobalt rare earth magnets, alnico (aluminium-nickel-cobalt) and bonded NdFeB rare earth magnets.

Sintered NdFeB rare earth magnets are critical components in the motors of electric and hybrid vehicles and in offshore wind turbines, along with many other industrial, defense, medical and electronics applications.

The first time critical minerals have been included in tariffs

There have been numerous rounds of Section 301 tariffs since the start of the US-China trade and technology war in 2018, but none of them has included rare earth magnets or materials.

According to Tuesday’s statement, “the tariff rate for certain other critical minerals will increase from zero to 25% in 2024.”

“This action will help to level the playing field for domestic producers, giving US industry the time it needs to scale and develop in a manner that aligns with America’s vital national interests,” Jim Litinsky chief executive of US rare earth producer MP Materials, said.

MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass light rare earth mine in the US state of California, and is developing a sintered neodymium iron boron magnet plant in the state of Texas.

Our team of rare earths experts and price reporters provide weekly rare earths prices and market analysis. Find out more about all our rare earths prices.

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Key highlights from the article include:

• An exploration of why investors are struggling to predict rare earth prices despite their significant impact on industries like automotive and energy
• Comments from industry figures like Amanda Lacaze, Jim Litinsky, and Rahim Suleman highlight the challenge of forecasting rare earth prices accurately
• The fact that forecasting remains difficult, leading Messecar to analyze potential price drivers
• Messecar considers factors such as a pause in EV demand, a global economic downturn, market volatility, and geopolitical tensions
• Weaker EV demand may have influenced prices, the decline cannot solely be attributed to it due to the widespread use of rare earth magnets in various industries
• A discussion about the global economic downturn as a potential driver, citing oversupply in the rare earth market and increased production quotas in China
• Questions about whether the economic downturn alone could account for such a significant price drop
• Market volatility, including a 300% increase in NdPr oxide prices between March 2020 and March 2022, is also examined, considering factors like COVID-19, inflation and industry consolidation
• The role of geopolitics, particularly in the US-China trade war, as a factor influencing prices

Read the full article here: Why have rare earth prices fallen? – MMTA

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“Neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal prices are firming up this week, and it is hard to find cheaper materials on the spot market,” a trader said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium-praseodymium oxide 99% ratio (75:25), fob China rose to $53-55 per kg on Thursday April 18, from $52-54 per kg per kg on April 11. 

Fastmarkets’ price for neodymium-praseodymium metal (Nd 75% Pr 25%), fob China increased to $66-68 per kg on April 18, from $65-67 per kg a week earlier.

“Demand hasn’t picked up significantly,” a producer said. “Some buyers that are in a hurry to buy neodymium-praseodymium are placing some orders, but others are still cautious about the rise and are monitoring the market.”

In Europe, prices for rare earth products mainly used in non-magnetic applications were less buoyant. Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for neodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam was unchanged on 18 April at $53-55 per kg, while the assessment for praseodymium oxide 99.5%, cif Rotterdam increased slightly to $54-57 per kg on April 18, from $53-57 per kg a week earlier.

Neodymium oxide has growing applications in automotive catalysts and water treatment chemicals, and praseodymium oxide is used in the glass industry.

Heavy rare earth prices rise on expectations of lower supply

Dysprosium and terbium export prices also rose this week, supported by higher domestic prices and expectations of reduced supply.

“Rare earth imports fell year on year in the first quarter. Market participants estimate that [heavy rare earth] ion-absorbed ore imports have dropped, which will mean reduced supply for medium and heavy rare earth products. So most sellers are insisting on higher prices,” the trader said.

According to China’s customs data, the country imported a grand total of 35,696.1 tonnes of rare earth in the first quarter of 2024, down by 11.1% compared with 40,169.2 tonnes in the same period of 2023.

“Dysprosium and terbium prices are on the rise. Downstream buyers have sent more enquires than previous weeks, and most sellers are reluctant to sell for less,” a second producer said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, fob China increased to $275-335 per kg on April 18, from $270-330 per kg previously.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for dysprosium metal min 99%, fob China rose to $344-370 per kg on Thursday, from $340-360 per kg on April 11. And prices for ferro-dysprosium 80%, fob China increased to $272-280 per kg on April 18, from $260-270 per kg a week earlier.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for terbium oxide 99.99%, fob China increased to $870-900 per kg, up by $50 per kg from $820-850 per kg a week earlier, and the assessment for terbium metal min 99.9%, fob China rose to $1,090-1,120 per kg on April 18, from $1,000-1,030 per kg a week earlier.

But the price increases did not extend to non-magnetic applications.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for gadolinium oxide 99.99%-99.999%, fob China remained rangebound at $28-33 per kg on Thursday, unchanged for over a month. High-purity gadolinium oxide has applications in aerospace, medical diagnostics and nuclear power.

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