Anna Platonova, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/anna-platonova/ Commodity price data, forecasts, insights and events Fri, 20 Dec 2024 11:20:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.altis-dxp.com/?v=6.4.3 https://www.fastmarkets.com/content/themes/fastmarkets/assets/src/images/favicon.png Anna Platonova, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/anna-platonova/ 32 32 Black Sea sunflower oil prices fall at least 7% over past month, continue to decline https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/black-sea-sunflower-oil-prices-fall-at-least-7-over-past-month-continue-to-decline/ Fri, 20 Dec 2024 11:20:48 +0000 urn:uuid:4a4bef30-d436-4dad-81ba-2f8fd0819786 Black Sea sunflower oil prices have dropped by at least 7% over the past month due to increased soybean oil availability, weak demand, competitive Russian pricing, and deferred EU regulations

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Black Sea sunflower oil prices have fallen by at least 7% over the past month and continue to decline, weighed down by the increased availability of soybean oil relative to other vegetable oils, weak demand from key buyers amid ample short-term coverage and competitive prices from Russian sellers due to a higher-than-expected sunflower harvest in Russia, as well as the deferred EU Deforestation Regulation policy, which kept the palm oil and soy oil supply unhindered.

“Primarily, soybean oil is now available at a considerable discount among four vegetable oils (palm oil, soybean oil, sunoil and rapeseed oil) thanks to strong soybean crops in North and South America. The election of [Donald] Trump as US President has also raised questions about US biofuel policy, pushing out excessive soybean oil from the US markets via export routes,” Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegoils broker Sunvin Group, told Fastmarkets.

Over the past month, export prices for sunflower oil have fallen by around 7-10%, or $80-130 per tonne, depending on the destination. On Tuesday December 17, according to Fastmarkets’ sources, sunflower oil was offered at an average of $1,160 per tonne CIF Mersin and CIF India, delivery in December-January.

Prices from European buyers have fallen by $80-90 per tonne, or almost 7%, over the past month to $1,180-1,190 per tonne CIF Seville, delivery in January-February. Prices have stabilized on the sellers’ side, while buyers are not showing interest.

“Relatively high prices for sunflower oil have reduced consumer demand for it for a period of time, while cheap soybean oil is putting pressure on sunflower oil in destinations where they can replace each other,” Sergiy Repetskyi, managing partner of Sunstone Brokers, said.

The spread between India soybean oil and sunflower oil this week reached $95 per tonne for January delivery, sources told Fastmarkets. On Tuesday, the spread has significantly narrowed to an average of $30 per tonne as a result of the continuing decline in vegoil prices.

On Tuesday, soybean oil was offered at $1,132-1,150 per tonne CFR India for delivery in January, depending on origin, and sunflower oil was offered at $1,160 per tonne CIF India for delivery in December-January, according to Fastmarkets’ sources.

Ukrainian sellers attempt to keep prices high, despite external pressures

For a long time, Ukrainian sellers have been trying to keep sunflower oil offer prices high, given the high cost of processed raw materials and low availability of seeds due to weak sales by farmers.

However, aggressive offers of Russian sunflower oil and the willingness to sell it cheaper have put additional pressure on the market, especially in Turkey.

“At origins, we see no super stock but a good enough volume, which is looking at demand on the spot and prices are under pressure as sellers want to move their stock before the New Year,” Repetskyi said.

“Turkey is well covered for the short term. There is still demand for the first quarter of 2025, and many Russian sellers have scared off buyers, but this is a typical buyer tendency to wait and see while the market is coming down,” Onat Angi, chairman of the Solventum brokerage.

“As soon as Russian sellers started dumping spot to avoid a higher export tax in January, they triggered a sales rush and scared off buyers in all directions,” the chairman added.

At the same time, a number of sources suggest a resumption of price growth after the New Year holidays, and one reason cited is the reduction in crushing by Ukrainian plants due to the suspension of processing or due to negative margins.

“Black Sea crush will slow down for the Christmas and New Year period first due to poor coverage of the plants. Most likely, we will not see much activity from buyers before January 10,” Repetskyi said.

According to Ukrainian customs statistics, sunflower oil exports from September to December 16 amounted to 1.5 million tonnes at the beginning of the 2024/25 season, which is in line with last year’s level for the same period.

According to Ukrainian analytical agency APK-Inform, sunflower exports in the 2024/25 marketing year could amount to 5.5 million tonnes.

However, some market sources doubt this figure, given the low sunflower harvest in Ukraine and estimated exports at 5.1 million tonnes.

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Launch of Ukraine sunoil CPT POC and sunmeal CPT POC price assessments https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/launch-of-ukraine-sunoil-cpt-poc-and-sunmeal-cpt-poc-price-assessments/ Tue, 03 Sep 2024 16:17:04 +0000 urn:uuid:ca362d49-6749-452d-8106-bb39a1ac325f Fastmarkets launched two price assessments for AG-SSD-0015 Sunmeal cpt POC and AG-SSD-0014 Sunoil cpt POC on Monday September 3, 2024.

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Fastmarkets has launched these deep-sea port sunflower oil price assessments and resumed port sunflower meal assessments to reflect the changing dynamics in the Ukrainian sunflower oil and sunflower meal market in the country due to the resumption of deep-sea ports.

AG-SSD-0014 Sunoil cpt POC, $ per tonne
Quality: FFA basis 2% max 3% with non-reciprocal allowance of 2/1 for any excess from seller to buyer between 2% & 3%, Fractions in proportion.
Quantity: 1,000-3,000 tonnes.
Location: cpt delivered to Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk ports (POC).
Timing: Spot
Unit: $ per tonne
Payment terms: 10-15 days
Publication: Daily, 4pm London time

AG-SSD-0015 Sunmeal cpt POC, $ per tonne
Quality: High protein sunflower meal in pellets. Protein basis min 35%, fiber max 20%, moisture max 12%.
Quantity: 1,000-3,000 tonnes
Location: cpt delivered to Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk ports (POC)
Timing: Spot
Unit: $ per tonne
Payment terms: 10-15 days
Publication: Daily, 4pm London time.

These prices will be part of the Fastmarkets Agriculture Oils, Fats and Biofuel Prices and News package.

The first publication of these assessments was scheduled for Monday September 2.

To provide feedback on these price launches, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact the editorial team by email at pricing.ags@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading: “FAO: Anna Platonova re: Sunmeal, Sunoil cpt POC prices.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, go to: https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology/

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Launch of Ukraine rapeseed CPT crush plant and rapeseed CPT POC price assessments https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/launch-of-ukraine-rapeseed-cpt-crush-plant-and-rapeseed-cpt-poc-price-assessments/ Mon, 19 Aug 2024 19:56:22 +0000 urn:uuid:1a33efed-2a3d-4f65-b341-41d4fbf630f5 Fastmarkets launched price assessments for AG-RSD-0005 rapeseed cpt crush plant and AG-RSD-0006 rapeseed cpt POC on Monday August 19, 2024.

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Fastmarkets has launched these new price assessments to capture the changing dynamics in the Ukrainian rapeseed (canola) market and to serve the country’s crush sector through increased visibility on an alternate feedstock and in the local currency.

AG-RSD-0005 rapeseed, cpt crush plant, hryvnia per tonne
Quality: Rapeseed with oil content basis 40%, moisture 9%, max 3% impurities, 2% oleic acidity max, 2% erucic acid content.
Quantity: 500-3,000 tonnes
Location: cpt delivered to a typical Ukrainian crush plant in the Greater Odesa region
Timing: Spot
Unit: Ukrainian hryvnia per tonne
Payment terms: 10-15 days
Publication: Daily, 4pm Kyiv time.

AG-RSD-0006 rapeseed, cpt POC, $ per tonne
Quality: Rapeseed with oil content basis 40%, moisture 9%, max 3% impurities, 2% oleic acidity max, 2% erucic acid content.
Quantity: 500-3,000 tonnes
Location: cpt delivered to Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk ports (POC)
Timing: Spot
Unit: US dollars per tonne
Payment terms: 10-15 days
Publication: Daily, 4pm Kyiv time.

These prices will be part of the Fastmarkets Agriculture Oils, Fats and Biofuel Prices and News package.

The first publication of these assessments was scheduled for Monday August 19.

To provide feedback on these price launches, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to these prices, please contact the editorial team by email at pricing.ags@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading: “FAO: Anna Platonova re: Ukraine rapeseed cpt prices.”

Please indicate if comments are confidential. Fastmarkets will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents, go to: https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology.

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Black Sea sunflower oil prices decline as veg oil complex applies pressure https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/black-sea-sunflower-oil-prices-decline/ Mon, 01 Jul 2024 15:54:23 +0000 urn:uuid:c34c81a4-b895-410a-be77-d83a9408d2cb Black Sea sunflower oil prices have declined by 5% over the past 10 days after reaching season-high levels, trade sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday June 27

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This came with an ample supply of soybean oil, a relatively significant price differential between soybean oil and sunflower oil, and falling prices for other vegetable oils, combining to put pressure to the entire complex and encouraging buyers to turn to alternatives.

“Sunflower oil prices are falling because of sufficient supply of soybean oil at origins, and declines in other soft oils and palm oil prices,” Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based cooking oil broker Sunvin Group, told Fastmarkets.

“In general, it is pressing the sun oil price to be softer because it has [been at] an unusual premium over the competition,” Bagani said.

Why did sunflower oil prices decline?

The results of the two latest Egyptian tenders underlined two points. First, Egypt, a major importer of vegetable oils, still has large reserves of sunflower oil. Second, the tenders’ focus on buying more soybean oil than sunflower oil meant that the country’s need for soybean oil was higher.

At the same time, some sources believed that Egypt’s GASC, the state-backed buying agency, did not buy sunflower oil because of its high cost compared with soybean oil – a dynamic that has disturbed some sunflower oil sellers.

“Sunflower oil sellers, frightened by such a picture, came out to sell and cover all the demand that was there. [But] there is no panic on the part of sellers and not everyone is ready to sell at any price, since the crush margin does not have a big gap,” Sergey Repetsky, managing partner of Sunstone Brokers, said, referring to relatively poor production margins that suggested crushers would not be keen to produce a lot of sunflower oil.

“Most likely, in early August, prices for sunflower oil will be able to win back the fall and the price will rise by an average of $30 per tonne before the new harvest arrives,” Repetsky said, in regard to the further development of prices should supply tighten.

Meanwhile, with the new crop beginning to trade, the price differential – also known as the spread – versus the old crop has not increased.

“The minimum spread between the old and new harvest indicates, on the one hand, sufficient supply of the old, and, on the other hand, fears and uncertainty regarding the size of the new harvest,” Repetsky said.

Sunflower oil prices slump

Black Sea sunflower oil supply levels have fallen by $40-50 per tonne over the past two weeks, or by 3-5% for July delivery on a CIF Turkey and a CIF India basis.

At the time of publication, Black Sea sunflower oil prices were in the range of $985-990 per tonne against buying levels around $970 per tonne.

Sunflower oil of Ukrainian origin on a CIF India basis, for delivery in July-August, was heard offered at the beginning of the week at $1,070 per tonne. But by Thursday the increase in supply levels meant that offers had fallen to an average of $1,040 per tonne.

Along the same lines, delivered prices into Turkey started the week at $1,005 per tonne, but had slumped by $20 per tonne by Thursday to $990 per tonne, while the number of sellers with volumes to clear had increased.

At the same time, spot buyers in Ukraine’s ports spoke about only moderate supply from the country’s sellers, despite the fall in prices.

Spot prices in Ukraine’s main ports fell by an average of $20 per tonne over the week and, by the time of publication, prices in deep-water ports were in the range of $900-905 per tonne CPT POC from sellers and $890 per tonne CPT POC from buyers.

At the same time, according to official data, Ukrainian exports of sunflower oil this month, up to June 26, amounted to 399,594 tonnes, giving every reason to believe that June exports would be the lowest since November 2023 and maybe more than 40% lower than the record export level reported in May, when it exceeded 714,000 tonnes.

According to the expectations of Ukrainian analysts, sunflower oil production in the 2023/24 season may reach 6.1 million tonnes, and exports may increase slightly to 5.7 million tonnes. From September 2023 to June 26 this year, 5.5 million tonnes of sunflower oil have already been exported.

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Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports in 2024-25 to fall by 18.2% and production to drop by 9.7% https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/ukrainian-grain-and-oilseed-exports-in-2024-25-to-fall/ Mon, 03 Jun 2024 14:32:09 +0000 urn:uuid:eebb429a-35a5-43de-b4f4-f76e9bbfad15 The Ukrainian Grain Association estimated the 2024/25 crop of oilseeds and grains in Ukraine at 74.6 million tonnes, down by 2% from the initial forecast of 76.1 million tonnes in March.

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The latest estimate was a decrease of almost 9.7% from UGA’s forecast of 82.6 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds harvested in the 2023-24 season.

The UGA expected a decline in production mainly due to a reduction in the acreage under grain crops because low production costs and expensive logistics have pushed farmers to redistribute sown areas.

But the forecast was based on average weather conditions over the past five years, and any improvement or deterioration could have an effect several months later.

Corn production and export

Corn production in 2024-25 was expected at 25.5 million tonnes, down by 3% or 800,000 tonnes from the March forecast.

The 2024-25 forecast represented a decrease of 4.1 million tonnes from 2023-24, when 29.6 million tonnes of corn were harvested.

Meanwhile, corn export estimates for the 2024-25 season were unchanged from the previous forecast at 20.5 million tonnes, which is lower by 5.5 million tonnes, or 21%, than the forecast for the 2023-24 season.

“The growing corn crop in the [2024-25] season will be affected by the potential [reduction] of crop areas under corn and the dry period in the lower regions,” UGA said.

Wheat production and export

For wheat, the association said it expected production at 19.1 million tonnes in 2024-25, down by 4.5% or 900,000 tonnes from its previous estimate in March.

Wheat exports were forecast to fall by 13% compared with the 2023-24 season to 13 million tonnes, in line with the association’s forecast in March and taking into account the estimated carryover stocks of 2.4 million tonnes.

For comparison, production for the 2023-24 season was projected at 15 million tonnes and initial reserves at 4.3 million tonnes.

Barley production and export

For barley, UGA’s May forecasts were in line with March expectations: a year-on-year 20% drop in production to 4.6 million tonnes, with exports down by 500,000 tonnes to 2 million tonnes.

Sunflower seed production and export

Estimates of sunflower seed production and exports were unchanged from March.

Sunflower production in the 2024-25 season was forecast at 13.7 million tonnes, which is 3.5% lower than the expected sunflower harvest in the 2023-24 season at 14.2 million tonnes.

Sunflower seed exports were forecast at 250,000 tonnes, almost half of the 2023-24 season.

Given the UGA’s forecasts for processing in the 2024-25 season at 13.6 million tonnes and low sunflower flows at the beginning of the season, it is possible that competition for the crop will continue to be high.

Rapeseed production and export

UGA forecast rapeseed production at 4.3 million tonnes, down by 4.4% or 200,000 tonnes year on year, with export potential expected to be down by 300,000 tonnes from the 2023-24 season at 3.4 million tonnes.

Soybean production and export

Soybean production in the 2024-25 season was expected to increase by 12.2% compared with the 2023-24 season to 5.5 million tonnes, in line with the UGA forecast in March.

Soybean exports, according to UGA’s preliminary estimates, will increase by 21.2% to 4 million tonnes from 3.3 million tonnes expected in the 2023-24 season.

View our grains and oilseeds prices

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Russia boosts sunflower oil share in Turkey, while Iran markets slow https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/russia-boosts-sunflower-oil-share-in-turkey/ Thu, 25 Jan 2024 15:32:19 +0000 urn:uuid:d29f7611-519f-407e-9fe6-d0534e410f29 There has been a recent uptick in sunflower oil offers from Russian sellers, with many trades of Russian-origin sunflower oil taking place last week

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Russia is increasing its presence in the Turkish sunflower oil market, thereby compensating for the partial loss of access to the Iranian and Indian markets, due to the situation in the Red Sea, with the activity leading to an increase in prices for sunflower oil compared to soybean oil.

The number of offers of sunflower oil from Russian sellers increased significantly over the past ten days, while through the last week there were many trades of Russian origin sunflower oil, Turkish sources have told Fastmarkets.

Supply levels for sunflower oil of Russian origin, according to Fastmarkets monitoring, are from $895 per tonne CIF Mersin, while trade levels were heard in the range of $880-888 per tonne CIF Mersin, with delivery in February.

According to the industry sources known as Sunseedman, as of January 24, 2024, 30,000 tonnes of Russian sunflower oil arrived into Turkish ports, nearly double the 18,000 tonnes that arrived in December 2023.

The increase in supplies of Russian oil to Turkey is to a large extent due to a decrease in sales to Iran and India – with the situation in Iran complicated by a ban on Russian sunflower oil that has been in place.

No official news has been heard from the Iranian government of any relaxation of lifting of the ban, but market sources spoken to by Fastmarkets claim that the country has resumed purchases of Russian sunflower oil in recent weeks, but they are limited by quotas.

At the same time, the Indian market, where Russia almost tripled its sales in the 2022-23 season compared to the 2020-21 season with flows rising to 721,459 tonnes and displacing Ukrainian sunflower oil, is now becoming unattractive for both Russian sellers and Indian buyers.

This is due to several factors.

One of the main reasons is the fairly high import of sunflower oil by India in January 2023 and since the beginning of the 2023-24 season in general.

Surge in India’s sunflower oil imports amid rising freight costs

According to Solvent Extraction Association data, India’s sunflower oil imports from September to December of the 2023-24 season increased by almost 27% compared to the same period in the 2022-23 season and amounted to just over 840,000 tonnes, of which 260,850 tonnes were imported in December.

In addition, the rise in the cost of freight and the increase in the delivery period of sunflower oil via the route from the Black Sea region to Asia around Africa have made sunflower oil less attractive in terms of price compared with soybean oil from South America.

Vessels are being forced into a longer route amid missile attacks emanating from Houthi rebels along the coast line of Yemen, which has forced many ships to use longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope to access Asian markets.

According to Fastmarkets monitoring data, soybean oil of South American origin for delivery in March is offered on average $10 per tonne cheaper – $940 per tonne CNF India – than sunflower oil Russian original $950 per tonne CIF India.

Market sources suggest that India’s fairly high imports of sunflower oil, as well as the difference in prices for soybean and sunflower oil, will lead to a decrease in India’s imports of sunflower oil in January.

Along with this fact, Turkish sources suggest that following the recent removal of the reference price by the Turkish government, import duties on sunflower oil and sunflower seeds will be reduced to combat inflation ahead of elections.

This will lead to an increase in the demand for sunflower oil of Black Sea origin, in particular Russian.

View our veg oil prices

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Ukraine sunflower oil exports fall 21% https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/ukraine-sunflower-oil-exports-fall-21/ Thu, 30 Nov 2023 16:59:01 +0000 urn:uuid:1a018ba2-8b71-46ca-87a1-9d538e5d6790 According to official data, oilseeds exports pick up pace against slower product shipments

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Exports of sunflower and rapeseed from Ukraine increased in the week to November 29, while exports of sunflower and soybean meal fell, official ministry data showed on Thursday.

The weekly volume of sunflower oil declared for export during the reporting period decreased by more than 21% compared to the previous week and amounted to 110,610 tonnes.

Total exports since the beginning of the season reached 1.28 million tonnes as of the reporting date, of which 517,321 tonnes were exported from November 1 to November 29.

While November is not over yet, the volumes exported as of November 29 suggest this month’s volume of sunflower oil exports will be the highest since April 2023.

The main destinations announced in November for Ukrainian sunflower oil exports were Romania (171,784 tonnes) and Turkey (92,650 tonnes), followed by Spain (39,409 tonnes) and Poland (39,811 tonnes) with almost equal shares.

Exports of sunflower meal remained relatively stable during the reporting week, with a declared export volume of 93,443 tonnes, bringing the total export volume since the beginning of the year to 1.17 million tonnes.

Between November 1 and November 29, China bought almost 135,451 tonnes or 38% of total November sunflower meal exports.

Oilseeds exports

Soybean exports during the reporting period decreased by almost 10% to 89,539 tonnes, bringing total exports since the beginning of the season to 1.14 tonnes.

The main buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in November remain Egypt and Turkey with shares of 179,748 tonnes and 119,582 tonnes, respectively.

Exports of rapeseed since the beginning of the 2023-24 season amounted to 2.38 million tonnes at the reporting date, of which 326,886 tonnes were exported from November 1 to November 29, 2023.

The main buyers of Ukrainian rapeseed in November were Germany (143,223 tonnes) and Belgium (51,954 tonnes).

During the reporting week, rapeseed exports increased by 96% compared to the previous week to 116,669 tonnes.

Finally, exports of Ukrainian sunflower to EU countries continued to increase in the reporting week with 12,460 tonnes exported, bringing total exports since the beginning of the season to 78,131 tonnes.

Sunflower exports from November 1 to November 29 amounted to 35,731 tonnes, which is the highest volume since May 2023.

Spain and France, with shares of 12,693 tonnes and 8,787 tonnes respectively, were the main buyers of Ukrainian sunflower in November.

View our oilseed prices

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Ukraine’s 2022-23 oilseeds exports surpass previous year https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/ukraines-2022-23-oilseeds-exports-surpass-previous-year/ Tue, 12 Sep 2023 10:04:29 +0000 urn:uuid:291f2249-e7fc-4ffd-951e-13dd246d31cc The country manages to increase its shipment volumes despite the many logistical disruptions

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Ukrainian exports of oilseeds and their derivatives reported a year-over-year increase in the 2022-23 marketing year, despite the fact that the end of the year was marked by a series of logistical disruptions that threatened to undermine the country’s position as a major global supplier.

From September 2022 to August 2023, Ukraine exported 5.6 million tonnes of sunflower oil, which is 25% more than in the previous season, the Ukroliyaprom Association for Extraction and Processing of Fat and Oil Products reported.

The Black Sea grain corridor worked most of the marketing year, but exports by land were also prominent last season and accounted for about 23% of total exports, and in recent months the focus of exporters has shifted to the ports of the Danube.

Sunflower oil exports

According to the European Commission, Ukraine increased its share in total imports of sunflower oil by EU countries in September-August of the 2022-23 season to approximately 89% against 82% last season.

At the same time, the distribution of export volumes of sunflower oil between the main buyers changed, with the EU countries now being the main buyers.

Turkey more than tripled its purchases of Ukrainian sunflower oil to 1.1 million tonnes in the 2022-23 season, increasing its share to 19.2%, Ukroilprom data shows.

China’s sunflower oil purchases in the reporting season increased by 80% to 636,800 tonnes, while China’s share in Ukrainian sunflower oil exports increased to 11.3% versus 7.9% in the 2021-22 season.

At the same time, exports to India fell by 41% to 612,700 tonnes, while India’s share of Ukrainian sunflower oil exports fell by more than half to 11%.

Sunflower oil exports peaked in March 2023 and flows remained strong in subsequent months, despite significant sunflower seed exports in the first half of the marketing year as farmers prioritized export sales due to more competitive price levels.

Ukrainian processors were not always able to offer a competitive price due to uncertainty, for example, when processing capacity was idle due to power outages throughout the country and demand and prices for sunflower oil were unstable.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine and the blockage of ports meant sunflower was aggressively sold for export and the main buyers of Ukrainian raw materials were EU countries, while demand for sunflower from local European farmers fell sharply, leading to dissatisfaction and protests.

In April, the five EU countries bordering on Ukraine imposed a temporary ban on the import of grain, oilseeds and other agricultural products from Ukraine.

Sunflower seeds and meal exports

Exports of sunflower seeds since the beginning of the new marketing year amounted to 1.85 million tonnes, or 14% more than last year, while the bulk (1.7 million tonnes) was exported before the ban was introduced.

The share of meal and cake in Ukrainian exports increased by 27% year on year to 4.2 million tonnes.

The three main buyers of Ukrainian sunflower meal and cake remained unchanged: China, the EU and Turkey, with a slight adjustment in export volumes.

China bought 1.72 million tonnes of Ukrainian sunflower in the 2022-23 season, which is 15% higher than last year.

Turkey reduced purchases of Ukrainian sunflower meal by 66% to 188,000 tonnes while the EU share remained virtually unchanged at 34-37% of the total volume.

Egypt meanwhile doubled its purchases of sunflower meal in the 2022-23 season to 105,000 tonnes.

Finally, soybean exports more than doubled year on year to 3.1 million tonnes.

View our veg oils and meals prices.

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Black Sea sunflower crops set to increase by 7% https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/black-sea-sunflower-crops-set-to-increase/ Thu, 17 Aug 2023 10:55:56 +0000 urn:uuid:3c8aeae9-da90-4117-92d3-93441647604b Ukraine, Russia, Romania and Bulgaria expect to see higher oilseed yields

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Sunflower crops in the Black Sea region will increase by at least 7% due to higher yield estimates in Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, while Turkey is expected to see a reduced crop, in line with market expectations.

According to the US Department of Agriculture’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde), the 2023-24 sunflower harvest in Ukraine, Russia, and Moldova will be 33.3 million tonnes, which is 7.6% higher than a year earlier.

In Bulgaria and Romania, the main sunflower producers in the EU, the increase in sunflower crops will be almost 14% taking it to 4.8 million tonnes and in Moldova about 680,000-750,000 tonnes, according to the latest estimates of the European Commission.

Ukrainian crops

Estimates of the sunflower harvest in Ukraine differ significantly between official and market sources.

According to the August estimates of the Ministry of Agricultural Policy, the sunflower crop is expected to decline by 879,000 to 12 million tonnes.

Analytical agencies estimate the sunflower harvest in the range of 13.2-13.7 million tonnes, meanwhile.

The increased estimates are based on an average 6% increase in planted area to 5.7 million hectares and an average yield increase of 2.3-2.43 tonnes per hectare.

At the same time, the estimates of companies active in the sunflower market vary considerably, by as much as 2 to 4 million tonnes.

The average estimate of analysts at Ukrainian companies is 12-14 million tonnes, while the estimate of the sown area does not exceed 5.5 million hectares.

The highest market estimate for the 2023 sunflower harvest is 14 million tonnes, and the lowest is 9-10 million tonnes.

The main reason for this is the difference in estimates of sown areas, as well as the weather, according to market participants.

The highest yield estimates are based on favorable weather conditions during the sunflower ripening period and an expected increase in yield and planted area.

As for prices for the new sunflower crop, they are in the range of UAH15,000-15,000 per tonne ($405-410 per tonne) including VAT CPT crushing plant, which is in line with prices for the old crop.

Russian crops

Despite the fact that Russian analytical agencies and official data suggest a decrease in sunflower acreage, the sunflower crop is expected to be almost 2% above the 2022 level of 16.4-16.6 million tonnes.

The biggest sunflower harvest estimates for the new 2023/24 season are shown by the USDA at 17.5 million tonnes, which is more than 7% higher than last year.

Prices for the new crop are so far lacking, as high stocks have led to a focus on shifting the old crop first.

Turkish crops

Turkey expects a decline in this year’s crop due to a decrease in planted area in favor of wider wheat planting, according to some sources, as well as due to a reduction in yields, according to other sources.

In addition, according to some sources based in Turkey, heat damage to the crop is likely to affect the final gross harvest.

Sunflower harvest estimates are 21% lower than last year at 1.5 million tonnes, according to market estimates.

The USDA expects Turkey’s sunflower harvest to be 1.65 million tonnes, down 13% from last year.

The sunflower harvest in Turkey started about two weeks ago, according to market data.

New crop sunflower prices are strengthening as the harvest progresses, driven by an expected decline in the overall crop.

“When the harvesting started the local sunflower seed price was around TRY10,500 per tonne, now it has become TRY13,500-14,000 per tonne or around $535 per tonne,” a source based in Turkey told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

“Prices for small batches of sunflower reached TRY15,000 per tonne or $555 per tonne this week with delivery to the plant,” another source based in Turkey, said.

Romanian and Bulgarian crops

According to the European Commission, the total sunflower harvest in Romania and Bulgaria will be close to 4.8 million tonnes, which is almost 14% higher than last year.

At the same time, the European Commission has reduced its estimate of sunflower acreage in Bulgaria by almost 8% to 846,000 ha, while maintaining an expected yield of 2 tonnes per hectare.

Market sources suggest that sunflower cultivation areas in Bulgaria reported by the European Commission are underestimated by some 950,000 hectares.

The estimated increase in sown area was due to a lower corn acreage.

According to some sources based in Bulgaria, the total sunflower harvest will be 4.5 million tonnes, of which 1.8 million tonnes will come from Bulgaria and about 2.7 million tonnes from Romania, as dry weather affects crops.

In addition, sunflower harvesting in Bulgaria has already started, with prices for the new crop being almost on par with the old crop.

“Old and new crops are already at the same price – within $425-430 per tonne with delivery to the crush plant,” a Bulgarian broker told us.

Romanian crushers are currently priced at $415-420 per tonne with delivery to the crushing plant.

“Sunflower harvesting started about a week ago in the southern regions,” a source based in Bulgaria said.

“Some northern regions started harvesting this week.”

According to the USDA’s August estimates, global sunflower production will increase in the 2023-24 season by 6.5% to 55.8 million tonnes.

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European veg oil prices slump https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-veg-oil-prices-slump/ Thu, 22 Jun 2023 09:19:05 +0000 urn:uuid:8ade80ca-e3d5-4e87-ad6f-d137dc20281d Markets react to media reports about EPA's decision to reduce rapeseed and soybean oil volumes in the biodiesel mix

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European veg oil markets slumped Wednesday, June 21, following CME futures and Asian markets lower after media reports circulated ahead of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s final decision on renewable volume obligations (RVOs), which looked to reduce the addition of rapeseed and soybean oils to the biodiesel mix.

Sunflower oil prices fell by an average of 4-4.5%, according to market sources, with prices for Sunoil FOB Six Ports in Europe and Black Sea sunflower oil falling by $35 per tonne and $60-80 per tonne on average.

Offers on a CIF Mersin basis fell to $820-840 per tonne from $900 per tonne CIF Tuesday.

At the same time, prices for Sunoil FOB Six Ports fell during the day to end at $925 per tonne against $900 per tonne FOB for loading in July, August and September.

Rapeseed oil was also quoted lower, with increased supply and prices falling by, on average, €30 per tonne per day to €910 per tonne against €890 per tonne FOB Rotterdam.

CME soybean oil futures hit limit down during the overnight session on the back of the leaked reports that the EPA had approved RFS requirements lower than the market expectations.

Industry reaction

“The amount of EV RIN abandoned has not been allocated to biomass biofuel mandates, nor has there been an increase in ethanol-based biofuels,” Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

Others meanwhile suggested the market had become overheated after the EPA delayed its decision from last week to this weak, while concern about dry weather’s effect on US crops fuelled price rises.

“The Chicago bean oil futures bubble became too big and the announcement numbers were below expectation, resulting in the price decline,” Sergey Repetsky, managing partner of Sunstone Brokers SA said.

“The delay of the EPA decision and weather concerns had overheated the veg oil market,” he added, saying it remained to be seen whether the falls would be sustained.

“Whether the supply side is tight or not, we will see in the coming days, this price decline will push sellers to move volumes,” he said.

Some market participants believe the sharp selloff in soy oil futures will continue, while others believe selling through pressures should be less severe.

“Commercials believe soy oil futures will quickly trade below 50 c/lb,” Charles Sernatinger of Marex Capital told us, adding the leaked expectations for EPA’s RVO announcement discussed over the previous days were unrealistic.

On the other hand, Terry Reilly from Futures International said further price declines should be less intense.

“Looking at the September contract, the trade ran the market up late last week, only to give back a large amount of that gain today,” Reilly said.

He added that further downside is on the radar but not to the extent seen back in December when another leak in EPA’s RVO announcement pulled soy oil prices steeply lower for an extended period.

Some market participants meanwhile said the price cut was expected even without the EPA report.

“On the way up, prices were very nominal without liquidity and price moved overdoing it somehow,” said a trader based in Switzerland.

“Now with the external rally taking a break Six Port prices are losing a bit of the nominal premium built in recent days.”

“Further soy oil prices had a steep upside run recently, hoping the substantial increase in the EPA final rule and the prices rose above the competing feedstocks in the US Markets and now need to adjust lower to remain competitive,” Sunvin’s Bagani told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

Last week, Sunoil FOB Six Ports and the Black Sea sun oil prices skyrocketed by $60-90 per tonne on average over the week to $995 per tonne against the buyer’s idea of $930 per tonne FOB under pressure from higher CME futures.

The sharp backdrop in soy oil futures in Chicago also spilled over into South American cash markets.

At the time of publication, soy oil premiums had lifted only mildly in the region compared with the steep plunge in futures, with brokers saying the market was mostly halted with players digesting sharply lower benchmark prices.

For more information, take a look at our biofuels prices page.

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