Syria is heavily dependent on grain imports, especially wheat, with the latest United Nations update saying that around 1.6 million tonnes of wheat are forecast as an import need for the 2024/25 marketing year, 8% below average, as the country’s private sector has been facing issues related to currency devaluation along with internal and macroeconomic instability.

Russia has recently been the main wheat supplier to the country, with around 670,000 tonnes already imported during the 2024/25 marketing year. However, following the change in leadership, the future of the trade has become uncertain.

Russia has been supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, with the president of Syria escaping to the country after the turmoil.

On Monday December 9, the head of the Russian Grain Exporters Union, Eduard Zernin, said that Russian exporters are not going to stop their supplies to Syria and will work with the Syrian side to resolve payment issues.

At the same time, sources said that some vessels carrying Russian wheat destined to Syria are at anchor, as they are not able to process payments.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian agriculture minister Viktor Koval has said that Ukraine is ready to supply Syria with food.

Currently, according to market sources, Ukrainian goods are already being delivered to Syria by going through other destinations, thus hiding the final one.

Official customs data shows zero imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for at least the last three years.

It was also said that the government might be working on a mechanism to process such shipments, but no details or further confirmation was received.

Fastmarkets sent a request to the Agriculture Ministry of Ukraine, but no response was received by the time of publication.

In general, trade sources said that they were waiting until the new regulations come into force given the regime change in Syria, with uncertainty over whether sanctions will be lifted from the country and how banks will adapt to the new reality.

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In the past week, there has been market talk about potential restrictions to slow down Russian grain exports, Fastmarkets heard.

These restrictions could include changes to the quota itself and its distribution; a minimum export price, potentially at $250 per tonne; a significant increase in export taxes; or other unofficial measures like delaying the release of mandatory phytosanitary documentation, sources said.

A delay in releasing phytosanitary documentation was already an issue for a few exporting companies over the past week, Fastmarkets heard.

“The Ministry of Agriculture is sending a signal to slow down ‘spot/cheap’ sellers who dump the market,” a trader told Fastmarkets.

As a result, most sellers of Russian wheat disappeared from the market in the second half of the trading day on Wednesday, sources said.

“The question for [the government] is how to maximize the money flow from exporters without risking exports, and at the same time, how to protect the country in case of a bad crop in 2025,” a second trader said.

Wheat exports during July-September were almost in line with the previous year at 14.73 million tonnes, according to local analytical agency Rusagrotrans.

And, in the first week of October, around 1.4 million tonnes of wheat were loaded from Black Sea ports, and at least 1 million tonnes were under loading, resulting in a total of 17.1 million tonnes so far in the 2024/25 marketing year, or up to 40% of the export potential.

The export potential for 2024/25 is significantly lower amid a crop decline of 6 million-10 million tonnes compared with the previous marketing year, while carryover stocks were also lower.

The latest estimates for Russian wheat exports in 2024/25 stand at 41 million-48 million tonnes; the highest one is the USDA’s, which sources consider too high.

In addition, the weather remains mostly dry in Russia, which can have a negative effect on the winter crop size in 2025.

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The current estimate for export in 2023-24 was 22.465 million tonnes, according to the September report from ABARES.

Indonesia was the leading destination in July, increasing its imports almost threefold to 281,927 tonnes, followed by Yemen, whose take went up nearly four times to 219,340 tonnes.

Philippines imports dropped by 22% to 209,034 tonnes, South African purchases rose by 5% to 114,183 tonnes, and South Korean imports also went down by 26% to 111,573 tonnes.

Imports into the main Australian importer, China, in July were the lowest since February 2021 and totaled only 4,248 tonnes, with current demand remaining low amid an active purchasing program run by China in previous months.

Barley exports

Barley exports dropped by 57% in July to 311,187 tonnes, amid a drop in Chinese imports by 54% to 287,137 tonnes. This was almost the only significant destination and took the East Asian country’s share to 92% of the monthly total.

That was the lowest monthly export figure since October 2022.

The total barley export since October 2023 reached 7.28 million tonnes, while the revised estimate for barley exports in the 2023-24 marketing year was 8.32 million tonnes, according to ABARES.

Rapeseed exports

Canola (rapeseed) exports continued to decline in July, by 13% month on month, with 386,652 tonnes exported, also the lowest since October 2023.

Total canola export went to 5.4 million tonnes, while the total export figure projected for the 2023-24 marketing year was 6.18 million tonnes.

The main export destinations for canola in July were the United Arabian Emirates, which increased its purchases by 260% to 152,384 tonnes, followed by Japan with 151,871 tonnes, a 17% rise month on month, and France with 59,075 tonnes, up from nil in June.

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Wheat exports from the country’s key deep-sea ports for exports reached 41.8 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of just under 7% from 39.1 million tonnes in the previous marketing year, according to port line-up data seen by Fastmarkets.

Total export volumes, taking into consideration all export routes, exceeded 55.4 million tonnes, according to Russian analytical agency Rusagrotrans – an increase of around 24% from 44.7 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Exports were active from the very beginning of the 2023/24 season, with big harvests, high stocks and relatively competitive prices for Russia-origin wheat enticing buyers – unlike the previous season when prices were higher.

The export figure could have been even higher, Fastmarkets understands, but an unofficial governmental insistence on a minimum floor price limited Russian wheat’s competitiveness throughout the marketing year – especially with big state-backed tenders.

In addition, grain exports through the second half of the year were limited by an initial Russian agriculture ministry quota of 24 million tonnes, although this was subsequently expanded by 5 million tonnes.

Of the total 29 million tonnes available for export, ultimately, around 27 million tonnes actually left the country.

Structure of exporters

One of the main changes during the 2023/24 marketing year was the significant transformation of the structure and nature of the companies undertaking exports, with state-owned enterprises taking a bigger share.

Grain Gates, a company affiliated with major Russia-based state-backed trading house Demetra, took the lead in the first half of the marketing year, and consolidated that position in the second half of the season.

That came as private trader Rif – previously known as GTCS and Grain Flower in trading circles – came under pressure when the government withheld key phytosanitary documentation in a bid to enforce government policy, according to trade sources.

Such documents are vital for exports and sources have said that companies selling below the unofficial price floor often encountered problems getting documentation from the government.

Whatever the cause of the delayed access to documentation, the result, in data terms, shows that Rif – which was the leading Russian exporter for almost 10 consecutive years – lost 1.19 million tonnes of its export quota for the second half of the marketing year.

Quota allocations are typically based on how much agricultural product the company exports through the first half of the year, so reductions in the company’s activities led to a smaller presence when the quotas were set out.

Under this approach, Rif exported 7.3 million tonnes of wheat from the primary Black Sea ports in the 2023/24 marketing year, compared with the 12 million tonnes handled by the state-backed Grain Gates, and 5.5 million tonnes handled by trader Aston.

The last vessel shipped directly by Rif was reported in early May 2024, with the company not present in the export market since then, which potentially means that other exporters will have moved in to fill the gap.

Alongside that, a number of multinational companies such as Louis Dreyfus and Cofco significantly reduced their presence in the Russian market throughout the marketing year, with both seeing their export quotas cut to zero in the second half.

Structure of importers

While the two biggest importers of Russian wheat remained the same in 2023/24, big changes were seen in terms of other importing countries.

Egypt maintained its position as Russia’s main wheat customer, buying 8.2 million tonnes according to an analysis of Black Sea port line-up data – a drop of around 6% compared with the 8.7 million tonnes taken in during the 2022/23 marketing year.

But according to data from the Russian Grain Exporters Union, exports to Egypt totalled 8.6 million tonnes – a total that most likely factors in smaller coaster-sized parcels departing from the Azov Sea’s shallow water ports.

Turkey also held on to its place as the second biggest destination for Russian wheat, but imports dropped by almost 24% according to union data, with imports amounting to 7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year, down from 9.2 million tonnes in the previous season. Shipments through deep-water Black Sea ports declined by about 50% to 3.30 million tonnes, down from 6.75 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Wheat exports from Russia significantly increased into Asian destinations, however, with buyers there feeling more confident about buying Russia-origin wheat after a string of quality issues and in response to very attractive Russian wheat pricing at key stages of the marketing year.

Bangladesh overtook Iran to become the third biggest destination for Russian wheat in the latest marketing year, taking in 3.8 million tonnes, which was more than double the near-1.6 million tonnes reported in the previous season. Iranian wheat imports from Russia halved to 1.3 million tonnes as the country’s demand overall dropped.

Exports to Indonesia, meanwhile, increased almost tenfold to 1.6 million tonnes (from 168,200 tonnes in 2022/23), while Pakistan’s imports edged up slightly to 1.60 million tonnes (from 1.56 million tonnes) and Vietnam tripled its wheat bookings to 197,841 tonnes (up from 70,000 tonnes in the previous marketing year).

Exports also resumed to Sri Lanka (278,735 tonnes) and Malaysia (105,650 tonnes).

Wheat delivered into African destinations in general increased by 23% to 8.2 million tonnes, excluding Egypt, with shipments resuming into Morocco (318, 272 tonnes), Eritrea (58,000 tonnes), Ethiopia (32,700 tonnes).

Grains and oilseeds export data

Russia stopped publishing customs data in March 2022, shortly after undertaking its full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, which means the latest publicly available official statistics are from January 2022 – just over halfway through the 2021/22 marketing year.

Fastmarkets has, therefore, used alternative data sources and its own analysis to track exports of grains and oilseeds from Russia.

Port loading and ship data – known as line-up data – was one source of information, collecting information about the destination of ships, along with mirror data from key trading partners, to track imports.

View our wheat prices

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On June 30, the official end of the marketing year, the export of grains from Ukraine amounted to 50.38 million tonnes, including corn. This was an increase of 3%, 1.4 million tonnes, over the corresponding period of the 2022-23 marketing year.

The increase was even more remarkable given that, over the three months from July to September 2023, the country’s main deep-water bulk agriculture export ports were limited to just 335,000 tonnes of exports.

Export pace lagged through the first half of the 2023-24 marketing year, falling 17% behind the previous year’s exports in the first three months of the marketing year. This was a time when the grain export deal brokered between the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine was under severe strain amid mounting delays at key locations.

The volume of exports dropped sharply with Russia’s insistence on monitoring each ship coming into or leaving the Black Sea that was heading to or from a Ukrainian port. The deal eventually fell apart, with each side blaming the other.

But exports gradually began to recover in October 2023 after the Ukrainian government unveiled its alternative humanitarian route. Initially, the trade expressed concerns that it would be unworkable, but with confidence starting to improve, the export pace rebounded back to a normal level by December 2023.

That took the pressure off hard-pressed alternative export routes along the Danube, into the EU Black Sea port of Constanta, or via road and rail connections.

In this way, the Ukrainian humanitarian corridor has proven its effectiveness, surpassing the results of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and allowing the country to gradually return to pre-war export volumes.

Moreover, while the sea route has regained its pre-war importance, export volumes via the Danube have decreased. The latest data from the country’s agriculture ministry showed that the share of exports going by sea reached 80% for the whole 2023-24 marketing year, up from 73% in the previous year.

The share of exports going through the ports along the Danube dropped by 9 percentage points to 30%, while the export share held by the Great Odesa ports moved to 49%, compared with 55% for the whole of the previous season.

Over the past five months, it has been stable at around 73% on average.

Along with more volume heading out of the Black Sea, and monthly export figures once again returning to pre-war levels, confidence among freight sources in the continuation of the corridor means that freight rates have also come down to more normal levels.

Even with the war-risk premium still in force, Ukraine’s exports now price around $6-7 per tonne above the EU price for Panamax vessels and $4-5 per tonne for Handy-sized, compared with the levels seen from the EU Black Sea ports into the same destinations.

Wheat exports grew the most

In terms of the commodities being exported, wheat showed the most significant growth at 9%, amounting to 1.5 million tonnes compared with last year, and taking the total to 18.4 million tonnes, with the country’s reach again becoming truly global.

That export figure was slightly above the USDA’s forecast, which was for 18.1 million tonnes for the 2023-24 marketing year, while the country’s wheat production reached 21.6 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to the latest data from Ukraine’s statistics agency, Ukrstat.

Spain overtook Turkey to become the main importer of Ukrainian wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year, taking 5.9 million tonnes – a factor that was driven by more than the country’s export capacity.

Two primary reasons came into play, with Ukraine producing more feed wheat to boost availability and make the wheat relatively cheap compared with corn, along with Ukraine being the most competitive option for Spanish destinations for long periods during the year.

Egypt also overtook Turkey to take the number two spot, doubling its purchases to 1.72 million tonnes.

Increases in shipments were also reported for other African destinations, with Algeria’s imports rising threefold to 588,500 tonnes, Tunisia’s buying up by 79% to 444,800 tonnes, and Morocco resuming imports after a pause during 2022-23. Morocco imported 144,900 tonnes over the year.

The reopening of the country’s Black Sea ports allowed Ukraine to increase shipments to Asian destinations as well, with around 4.3 million tonnes traveling long haul. This was more than double the volume last year of 1.9 million tonnes.

Pakistan resumed imports, with 814,000 tonnes heading there, while Indonesia increased its purchases by a factor of more than three to reach 1.5 million tonnes, making it the third-biggest importer.

Vietnamese imports also significantly improved, with an increase of nearly 4 times to 683,000 tonnes imported, compared with only 178,400 tonnes in 2022-23.

South Korean buyers increased their purchases to 240,600 tonnes, despite buy tenders for the country still explicitly ruling out Ukraine-origin wheat.

The Philippines resumed imports as well, with 86,400 tonnes imported – although the figure was still well below pre-war levels.

Top importers of Ukrainian grains changed hands

For Turkey and Romania, respectively Ukraine’s first and second biggest customers in the 2022-23 marketing year, the countries both lost position – with Turkey losing a position it had only gained as a result of the Black Sea grain initiative.

With only slightly more than 1 million tonnes imported through the year, Turkey slipped down the order, while Romania’s position was entirely predicated on the ability to re-export Ukrainian corn via Romanian ports.

Consequently, with the re-opening of the Great Odesa ports, wheat exports to the country dropped by 62% to 1 million tonnes.

Falls were also seen in wheat exports to neighboring countries, because the re-opening of the humanitarian corridor meant that alternate export routes carried less significance than they had during the continuing blockade of exports from Ukraine’s ports.

As a result, wheat imports into Poland fell to just 1,100 tonnes, from 899,500 tonnes last year, while Hungary’s imports were zero, down from 290,400 tonnes in 2022-23.

Slovakia imported just 5,100 tonnes, compared with 131,800 tonnes last year.

Barley export dropped

Barley exports declined by 221,000 tonnes compared with the previous year, to a total of 2.5 million tonnes amid lower production in the country.

But the figure was still 200,000 tonnes above the USDA’s 2023-24 projection at 2.3 million tonnes, while production in the 2023-24 marketing year was 5.5 million tonnes, according to Ukrstat. This meant that around half of the total production was exported.

The main destination for Ukraine’s barley exports in the 2023-24 marketing year remained China, which doubled to 701,500 tonnes – although the figure was still well below the pre-war level of 2.6 million tonnes.

Spain remained the second-biggest destination for a second year with imports at 460,100 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Ukraine, with the total figure reaching 131,500 tonnes.

Meanwhile, as with wheat, imports of barley by Romania dropped by 64% to 211,900 tonnes, amid a normalization in the movement of Ukrainian volumes out of the Black Sea.

Corn export remain at similar levels

Finally, corn exports during the period from July 2023 to June 30, 2024, reached 29.3 million tonnes, largely in line with last year’s results at the same stage.

The marketing year for corn typically starts in September, meaning that these figures do not reflect the typical marketing year and the final 2023-24 export data has yet to be received.

It also means that, for the first few months of the marketing year under consideration, corn exports will be slower because they are coming from old crop supply.

Corn production in 2023-24 reached 31 million tonnes, however, according to Ukrstat.

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A surplus of vessels in the Atlantic basin, coupled with somewhat quiet demand in South America, pushed Panamax freight rates lower in the week.

Excess tonnage and lower rates were also noted in Europe and the US.

Falling crude oil prices contributed to the downswing, with WTI and Brent contracts down by 6.0-6.5% over the past week.

Crude price drop partly due to supply cut

The drop in crude prices is partly linked to a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to gradually reduce the supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day currently in place, starting to reintroduce those volumes into the market in the fourth quarter.

Capesize rates in the Atlantic were broadly stable on large tonnage availability, but rates picked up in the Pacific basin due to good demand for coal and iron ore shipments.

Demand for Handysize vessels picked up both in the Atlantic and the Pacific, while the container market continued to face headwinds – freight rates were up because diversions from the Red Sea increase voyage times, disrupt shipping schedules and create bottlenecks both in Europe and Asia.

Freight rates for vessels carrying palm oil cargoes from Southeast Asia to key destination markets have inched up marginally from last week, with a steady volume of vessel inquiries for June shipment.

Rates for 18,000-to-20,000-tonne vessels carrying palm oil from Southeast Asia to the west coast of India increased to $48 per tonne from $47 per tonne in the previous week, while freight rates for 10,000-to-12,000-tonne vessels moving palm oil to the east coast of India and Chittagong were $37.50 per tonne, up from $37 per tonne a week earlier.

For shipments to China, freight rates for 12,000-to-15,000-tonne vessels were $37-47 per tonne, up from $36-45 per tonne in the previous week.

Freight rates fall in black sea region

Freight rates in the Black Sea region declined in the week to Wednesday, with less cargoes available for loading amid the end of the marketing year.

The Panamax freight rate out of Russia’s Novorossiysk port to Egypt went down slightly, with current ideas indicated at $16-18 per tonne.

The Handysize freight rate from the Ukrainian Black Sea to the Spanish Mediterranean fell by almost $4 per tonne, with ideas indicated at $19 per tonne for spot loading.

Meanwhile, the Handysize rate from the Constanta port to the same destination declined by around $2 per tonne to $14-15 per tonne.

There were no fresh indications for Asian destinations from the Black Sea region, leaving rates for loading in Ukraine to China nominally around $53-55 per tonne.

In the shallow water market, rates from Ukrainian Danube ports into Marmara were heard steady at $16-17 per tonne for Coaster-sized vessels.

Meanwhile, rates in Azov dropped significantly to $23-25 per tonne from $31-32 per tonne amid a lack of cargoes available because a limited number of trade companies have quotas available, and because of incoming Turkish national holidays.

This report has been updated to include information on freight rates in the Black Sea region in paragraphs 12-18.

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Barley trading

Traders said Chinese buying interest was solid, with up to 12 cargoes of barley traded into China in the last week, sourced from France, Australia, and Ukraine.

Fastmarkets did not manage to confirm all 12 deals, but trade sources said that at least five optional origin trades were completed, while rising basis prices for French-origin barley also pointed to significant purchases.

French barley bids on a free on board (FOB) basis increased from a €25 per tonne discount to May Euronext milling wheat futures to a €17 per tonne discount.

In Australia, local sources said they had seen more interest for buying barley on an FOB basis, most probably to cover sales into China on a delivered basis, with bids firming to $235 per tonne FOB WA.

Ukrainian-origin barley was offered at $245 per tonne cost and freight (CFR) China, however, traders said Chinese buyers were reluctant to purchase Ukrainian origin due to contaminants found in previously purchased cargoes.

Price ideas were heard at around $247-255 per tonne CFR China for optional origin cargoes.

French and Ukrainian origins are both subject to a 3% import tariff, while Australian origin is duty-free.

Chinese barley imports in 2023/24 are expected to reach 8.4 million tonnes, while around 6.5 million were already imported during the July-December period, with Australia regaining market share after the imports were allowed in August 2023.

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Corn trading

Chinese demand has also picked up for Ukrainian corn, with at least a few trades happening last week, while there was unconfirmed market talk of up to 10 deals signed.

The trade levels were reported at around $227-229 per tonne CFR for March-April shipment, while currently offers are at $230-235 per tonne versus $225-227 per tonne on the buying side.

Ukrainian corn is currently the cheapest origin in the world, amid big amounts available in the country for sale along with a need to stay competitive despite the high freight costs.

Trade sources said that Chinese buyers had also shown interest in US corn loaded from Pacific ports, with the offers shown at around $237 per tonne CFR, but no more details were available if any purchases were made.

Chinese corn import potential for 2023/24 is pegged at 23 million tonnes, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), while during the September-January period around 15 million tonnes were already imported, with Brazilian origin taking the lion’s share of that.

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Despite recent improvements, some ports – particularly Tarragona, on Spain’s east coast – are still experiencing vessel discharge delays of up to 10 days, while back in October the waiting time was even higher.

That has been part of a domino effect, sparked as deliveries from the country’s main suppliers did not arrive at the expected time, as loading delays among key export partners have affected many on the supply side – with most of Spain’s imports drawn from either the Black Sea or South America.

In Brazil, corn has had to compete with a huge soybean export program which has strained the country’s own export logistics as it simultaneously copes with the twin dynamics of its biggest ever corn and soybean crops.

In the Black Sea, the Ukrainian export grain deal was stopped in mid-July, when Russia pulled out of the four-way agreement with a huge number of ships still stranded in the queue waiting for inspection at Istanbul.

Meanwhile, generally high traffic in Romania – as the country stepped in to export both its own corn and Ukrainian stocks – meant it too suffered delays to loadings.

That all led to a situation where corn started to arrive to Spain later than had been expected – and generally arrived simultaneously rather than in a managed flow.

And, even though the significant delays started back in September, the consequences are still evident.

View our corn prices

Domestic outlook

At the same time, internal demand for feed grains was already slowing down amid a decline in livestock feed, in a move that led to slow discharge rates and slower deliveries to the domestic market.

That caused further shocks to the supply chain, as the slow pull from the internal market meant port storage remained reasonably full and further limits the capacity to unload the new vessels arriving.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, the USDA has already predicted a drop in cattle and pork production in Spain amid a decline in projections for exports outside the European Union and the sector’s relatively high production costs, which means potentially lower demand for feeds.

Spain is the biggest European grain importer, with annual imports of around 7 million tonnes of corn and 2 million of wheat on average over the last three years.

So far in the 2023-24 marketing year, corn imports have reached 2.7 million tonnes, which is almost 39% down compared to the same stage a year ago, although at the same time feed wheat imports have been higher at 1.97 million tonnes.

That is almost double the volume imported at the same time last year, according to the European Commission data, and comes amid heavy falls in wheat prices following last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Rumors have been circulating among market participants that Russia could be poised to make a return to the grain deal initiative from October 5, after pulling out of the deal back in July 2023.

The deal had originally been signed between Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey, with a mirror deal signed between Russia, the UN and Turkey, but was allowed to lapse when Russia declined to resign.

The trade rumors, most of which seem to come from Russia-based sources, expect Turkey will guarantee the safety of vessels operating in the Black Sea and, as such, will allow unhindered export of grains and sunflower from both Ukraine and Russia.

More controversially, the rumors also suggest a guarantee that the export of petrol, oil and lubricants from Russia would be included, in return for exports of the same products from the EU into three Ukrainian deep sea ports.

Also, key Russian demands for readmission to the international electronic banking system, SWIFT, and a guarantee of Russian fertilizer exports via Ukrainian ports has been dropped by Russian authorities amid acceptance that there is no possibility of implementing such an arrangement.

Along with that, it was also said that Turkey will process payments for Russian sunseeds and grains through its two state banks, with a 12% commission.

Doubts

However, trade sources spoken to by Fastmarkets Agriculture also suggested that such reports were untrue and claimed there is no reason or incentive for Ukraine to return to the grain deal and give control over the flow of exports back to Turkey, the UN and especially Russia.

Ukraine’s use of marine and aerial drones against Russian ports and shipping in the mainland and in the disputed territory of Crimea has proved a consistent irritant to Russian naval forces and spurred more confidence.

On the back of that, Ukraine declared the opening of its own humanitarian corridor – allowing a wider selection exports than simply grains – in August, initially enabling ships that had been stuck in port since the Russian invasion began to leave.

Since the opening of the humanitarian corridor, eleven vessels have already arrived in Ukraine, and eight of those have left successfully, but there are more expected to enter the region soon, but trade sources expressed fears that recommitting to the grains initiative could slow building momentum.

“The UN only will put the process into frames, which nobody really needs,” a source said.

Another Ukrainian source familiar with the matter said that for now there were only talks about the current humanitarian corridor, while the UN said that for now they could only confirm that negotiations are “ongoing”.

“The UN remains determined to ensure that Ukrainian grains can be exported and reach the global market, for the sake of Ukrainian farmers and the world’s poorest people who need affordable food. These efforts continue in that regard, including through talks with the Russian Federation,” UN representatives said in response to an official request from Fastmarkets.

Trade sources also agreed that it was possible that there be negotiations underway, but still did not expect a final result to be agreed upon and certainly not within the next 24 hours.

Along with that, Russian media RIA News reported that more clarity regarding the status and continuation of the grain deal initiative may appear closer to the end of 2023, but for now, there is no significant progress.

The grain deal initiative was stopped on July 17, 2023, after Russia withdrew from the deal – although significant delays at inspection stages meant that shipments were already significantly delayed – with some ships facing months of waiting at Istanbul.

That had brought accusations from Ukrainian authorities that Russian inspection teams under the Joint Coordination Centre were effectively sabotaging the arrangement by holding up their approvals for as long as possible.

But on August 10, Ukrainian naval forces opened a humanitarian corridor for commercial vessels, with few vessels that had been stuck since the Russian invasion leaving Ukrainian ports in August, before the arrival of eight vessels to load iron ore and grains in September.

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