This consultation sought to ensure that our methodology continues to reflect the physical market under indexation, in compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) principles for Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs). This includes all elements of our pricing process, our price specifications and publication frequency.

You can find the current methodology for European Graphic Paper here: https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology/forest-products/european-graphic-paper/.

To see all Fastmarkets pricing methodology and specification documents, go to https://www.fastmarkets.com/methodology/.

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February trades for delivered CFR volumes were heard at a 130-135 cents per bushel premium to March CME soybean futures, and maybe as high as 137 and 138 cents per bushel over March CME soybean futures.

March loading sales were heard at 53, 55, 60 and 70 cents per bushel, up from 48 cents per bushel heard paid earlier in the week.

A February-March cargo was meanwhile heard traded at a 97-100 cents per bushel premium, up from 75 cents per bushel a day or two ago.

CME soybean futures, against which most physical cargo sales are priced, have fallen sharply in the last few days on wet weather in Brazil, which is expected to bring some relief to the soybean crop after recent hot, dry weather, as well as favorable weather in Argentina.

“Wide and choppy trading ranges were seen for the US soybean complex today, mainly on positioning ahead of the weekend after grinding sharply lower during the morning because of improving Brazilian weather forecasts,” Terry Reilly, Senior Agricultural Strategist at Marex said in his evening report Thursday.

“Soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil all ended lower.”

Brazilian farmer sales slower due to crop concerns

A Brazilian analyst meanwhile said slow farmer selling may have contributed to the higher premiums.

“I think it is also because of a lack of farmer selling and concern about the crop failure up north,” Eduardo Vanin, lead soybean analyst at Brazilian brokerage Agrinvest told Agricensus.

“Besides that, Brazilian soybeans for February and March seem too cheap compared to the US.”

The move has also affected FOB premiums in the Brazilian Paranagua paper market, with a surge in the new crop levels.

Premiums for February shipment surged 30 cents per bushel to a 25 cents per bushel discount to March CME futures Thursday, while March followed the same path rising 28 cents per bushel to a 52 cents per bushel discount.

Trades were also heard for March loading at a 60 cents per bushel and 55 cents per bushel discount to futures, with unconfirmed rumors of further trades at a 50 cents per bushel and 45 cents per bushel discount to March futures.

Market sources said the sharp fall in CME futures had indeed played a role in the basis rise, but analysts are also becoming skeptical about the size of the crop Brazil will end up with, leaving fewer volumes to be traded.

One analyst said that it expected the country’s production to reach 162 million tonnes, but that it might be revised lower due to the drought stress in the central-west and excessive moisture in the south, even with better weather conditions forecast in the short term.

View our soy prices

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Some 78% of the soft wheat crop was rated good to very good, down from 80% the previous week and compared with 63% in 2022.

View our wheat prices

The wheat harvest advanced by 24 percentage points to 83% complete as of July 24, behind last year’s 94% but ahead of the five-year average of 75%.

On average the harvest is three days behind last year and two days ahead of the five-year average.

Barley and durum wheat crops

The percentage of the winter barley crop considered good to very good meanwhile stable at 80%, which is also well above the 62% seen this time last year.

Harvest work on winter barley is now complete, on par with last year and ahead of the five-year average of 98%.

Durum wheat conditions were also stable at 67% good to very good, compared with 55% seen this time last year.

The durum harvest progressed by 10 percentage points to 99% complete, on par with last year and ahead of the five-year average of 93%.

Spring barley conditions were stable at 73% rated as good to very good, compared with the 48% recorded at the same point in 2022.

The spring barley harvest progressed by 22 percentage points to 91% complete, just ahead of last year’s pace of 90% and the five-year average of 65%.

Corn crop

Finally, corn crop conditions deteriorated slightly to 81% in good to very good state from 82% last week, compared with 68% in 2022.

Corn development remains about a week behind last year’s rate and is on par with the five-year average.

France is one of the biggest exporters of wheat and corn in the European Union, with wheat exports of 10.13 million mt recorded between July 1, 2022 and July 3, 2023, according to the European Commission.

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Record lows were reached on ample supplies out of Brazil and lackluster demand from the world’s biggest soybean importer, while more stable FOB levels and a pick-up in freight have provided a floor to the market.

Details of two May cargo trades concluded overnight Monday to Tuesday emerged on Wednesday, March 29, at a 40 cents per bushel premium to CME May soybean futures, with further offers seen on the same day in the 52-58 cents per bushel range.

Earlier this week, May trade had been reported at just 37 cents per bushel over CME May futures, while April was heard to have traded as low as 32 cents per bushel – levels which market participants said appeared very low as they were some cents under replacement costs based on FOB cargo and paper market levels at the same time.

“The levels were already too low, especially now with higher freight rates,” one Brazil market source said, noting a pick-up in freight in the last couple of days for shipments from Brazil to North China.

By comparison, basis premiums for May Brazilian soybean cargoes were almost $1 per bushel higher one month ago and $3 per bushel higher at the same time last year when crop damage caused tightness in the Brazilian soybean market.

This year, basis premiums have come under heavy pressure from a bumper crop expected in Brazil of 150-154 million tonnes and flat demand for soybeans from China, where crush margins and demand for soybean meal have been poor.

In addition, heavy rains earlier this year caused disruptions to port operations in Brazil, leading to congestion and long waiting times for vessels, which in turn has slowed Brazil’s soybean export program and created a shortage of storage space, adding to the pressure building on prices.

View our soybean prices

Brazilian grain supply

On Tuesday, Brazil’s grain exporters’ association Anec reduced its March soybean export estimates to 15.19 million tonnes from the previous 15.38 million tonnes projection.

While this figure is 3 million tonnes higher than last year’s 12.1 million tonnes for all March shipments and an all-time high for the third month of the year, it appears it is still not enough if Brazil is to achieve its expected exports of 93 million in 2023.

Sources said the current Brazilian export program was just too slow for the size of its crop.

“If the daily average of shipments remains at 606,000 tonnes, shipments up to the end of March will end close to 22 million, against 24.4 million last year, which only confirms that Brazil is far behind,” said Eduardo Vanin of Brazilian brokerage Agrinvest.

This could mean basis premiums continue to face some pressure further along the curve, particularly if the perceived buying interest from China fails to emerge.

“I feel China is not very active for July-August shipments or is still slow to cover July-August shipments,” one source told Fastmarkets Agriculture.

“If the farmer selling pressure has been released in May-June, we may see some support,” the source said, adding, “otherwise, there is still room for the July-August premium to go down.”

China expects to import some 95.2 million tonnes of soybeans this marketing year, up from 91.6 million tonnes in 2021-22, of which a sizeable portion is likely to come from Brazil.

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In an update published last Thursday, the agency said the analysis, done in conjunction with crop institute Arvalis, showed 27% of the crop had a protein content of less than 11% with 95% of expected samples collected, down from 24% in last week’s preliminary analysis based on 76% of expected samples.

In 2021, FranceAgriMer reported just 5% of wheat below an 11% protein content, which is often seen as a minimum standard for milling wheat.

In the latest analysis, a further 31% of the crop was found to have a protein content of 11-11.5% as of August 23, down from 33% in last week’s analysis, while 23% was at 11.5-12%, 12% at 12-12.5%, and 7% at above 12.5% protein.

In 2021, 15% of the crop was found to have a protein content of 11-11.5%, 37% 11.5-12%, 28% 12-12.5% and 15% above 12.5%.

The agencies’ final report on French wheat quality will be published in September.

In terms of weight, FranceAgriMer recorded a slight increase in heavier weights compared with last week’s analysis, with 2% of the soft wheat coming in at less than 74 kg/hl, 11% at 74-76 kg/hl, 27% at 76-78 kg/hl, 35% at 78-80 kg/hl and 25% at higher than 80 kg/hl.

A separate analysis of samples classed 42% of the current soft wheat crop as superior, up from 40% last week, 12% as premium, unchanged, and 29% as average, up from 26%, according to the agency. These samples represented 84% of the final number expected.

Protein content has been a concern for the wheat crop in a number of European countries this year, with observers in Germany, the Baltic states, Ukraine and Russia noting the quality overall is lower than last year.

Keep up to date with the wheat market and trends shaping the agricultural landscape, visit our dedicated wheat market insights page.

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Wheat revised upwards

The ministry estimated soft wheat production at 33.9 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from 32.9 million tonnes in its July estimate.

This would mark a 4.4% drop in output year-on-year due to a decline in the planted area (down 5.8%) and despite a slight increase in yield (7.2 tonnes per hectare compared to 7.1 tonnes per hectare in 2021) and is 3.1% lower than the five-year average.

For durum wheat, the ministry estimated production at 1.4 million tonnes, slightly above last month’s figure but still markedly below last year and the five-year average due to a fall in the planted area.

The estimate is 14.2% lower than the previous year’s output and 19.1% lower than the five-year average.

Durum yield is estimated at 5.3 tonnes per hectare, just below last year’s levels.

France finished harvesting soft wheat this week, according to a report by farm agency FranceAgriMer earlier Friday.

Barley production stable

Barley production was estimated at 11.4 million tonnes, marginally up on last month.

Despite an increase in the planted area, this falls 0.6% below last year’s level and 3.2% below the five-year average.

Winter barley production was estimated at 8.4 million tonnes, slightly above last month and 2.5% up on last year’s figure, with an increase in planted area (up 7.1%) offsetting a drop in yields (down 4.3%).

Spring barley production is estimated at just below 3 million tonnes, an 8.3% drop on 2021 due to a sharp drop in yields (5.3 tonnes per hectare in 2022 against 6.1 tonnes per hectare in 2021).

Corn set to fall 18.5% on 2021

The ministry released its first estimates for the corn crop, stressing that these were indicative levels as harvest work on corn has not yet begun.

The 2022 harvest is provisionally estimated at 12.7 million tonnes, 18,5 % down on 2021 and 9,1% lower than the five-year average.

This is due to a 90,000-hectare drop in planted area and a sharp fall in expected yield, to 8.7 tonnes per hectare from 10 tonnes per hectare in 2021.

Rapeseed production sees sharp increase

By contrast, the ministry said it expected a sharp increase in rapeseed production this year, and currently puts the production figure at 4.3 million tonnes, up from just under 4 million tonnes in its July estimate.

This would be 31.6% higher than last year’s production figure and 6.4% higher than the five-year average.

The planted area exceeded 1.2 million hectares, which is 236,000 hectares more than in 2021.

The yield is currently estimated at 3.57 tonnes per hectare, up from July’s estimate of 3.28 tonnes per hectare and up 2.1% from last year.

Keep up to date with the latest grains and oilseeds news, price trends and forecasts by visiting Fastmarkets Agriculture.

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Speaking on arrival at an EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels, Josep Borrell said resuming grain exports was maybe the most important thing the international community was currently facing.

“We are doing whatever we can to support the export of this grain through other ways, through the solidarity lanes, through the Black Sea to Romania and Bulgaria, but that is not enough,” Borrell told journalists.

“I hope that this week, it will be possible to reach an agreement to deblock Odesa and other Ukrainian ports,” he said, adding that “the lives of thousands, more than thousands, tens of thousands of people depend on this agreement.”

“It is not a diplomatic game; it’s an issue of life and death for many human beings,” Borrell said.

He added that Russia would have to deblock and allow Ukrainian grain to be exported. Otherwise, the west would continue to assert that Russia was “using food as a weapon, without any kind of consideration for human lives. This has to be said loudly.”

Talks between the four parties began in Turkey last week, and while real obstacles remain to a deal, they have given the most positive signal that a deal might be possible since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Market sources have expressed some skepticism that a deal might be reached given the different agendas of each party in the talks.

Before the war, Ukraine typically exported 6-7 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds a month, mainly via deep seaports in the Black Sea, but since Russia invaded the country on February 24, Ukraine’s deep sea ports have been blocked due to the presence of the Russian navy in the waters nearby and on Snake Island, a strategic point in the Black Sea.

This forced exporters to seek alternative routes, and in May, the European Commission launched an initiative to create so-called “solidarity lanes” to improve the flow of grain out of Ukraine by rail and road via neighboring EU countries.

Volumes remain low, however, and currently, only about 1.5-2 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds a month can be exported from Ukraine via overland routes and smaller shallow water ports.

After Russian forces were evacuated from Snake Island a few weeks ago, it became possible to re-open the Ukrainian Bystre canal that links the Danube river with the Black Sea, but export opportunities via this route also remain limited.

Keep up to date with the latest grain market news, price trends and forecasts by visiting Fastmarkets Agriculture.

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Ukraine’s spring crop planting covers 1.5 million hectares so far

Ukraine’s spring sowing campaign advanced by 500,000 hectares, or 2.2 percentage points, from April 7 to 11, according to the latest update from the country’s agriculture ministry.

The update also provided some insight into how the government is supporting farmers with key inputs like fuel, while also highlighting some of the risks that are inherent in this year’s season – including land mines following the Russian invasion that started on February 24.

Overall, the total planted now amounts to almost 8.5% of the area that is projected to be planted with spring crops.

Spring wheat planting advanced by 9.5 percentage points to 68.1% complete of planned plantings to reach 131,800 hectares, versus 64.4% last year. Spring barley planting progressed by 8.1 points to 659,000 hectares or 49.3% of the planned area, versus 79.2% at the same point of last year.

Farmers have already planted 12,900 hectares with spring rapeseed, which accounts for 38.9% of the anticipated area and makes a 4 percentage points advance from last week.

By the same date of 2021, sowing had not yet started.

Corn planting inched forward, with progress registered on 49,900 hectares or 0.9% of the expected area now complete, up from 0.7% last week. Sunflower progressed by 2.1% and was complete on 249,600 hectares, or 3.8%, versus 6% last year. Soybean planting had advanced by 0.3 percentage points to 18,000 hectares or 1.4% of the planned area, against 0.5% last year pace.

Wasde: Global corn production, ending stocks seen higher

The USDA’s April Wasde update for the 2021-2022 corn outlook has increased projections for global corn production and estimates of ending stocks, against analysts’ expectations.

US output and ending stocks were left unchanged.

The USDA now projects that global corn production will reach 1.21 billion tonnes, up 4.31 million on the March estimate.

Global ending stocks are estimated at 305.46 million tonnes, up 4.5 million tonnes from the March figure, while analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets Agricensus expected that the report would project a cut of 500,000 tonnes to 300.4 million tonnes.

The projected increase in ending stocks is mainly on the back of a 2.2 million increase in Ukraine, with small gains expected in the European Union and in Asian nations.

The USDA left projections for Ukraine’s production unchanged at 41.9 million tonnes, but increase the amount expected to be consumed domestically by 2.3 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes and reduced expected exports by 4.5 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes.

Crop projections for Argentina were unchanged at 53 million tonnes, while Brazil’s corn production forecast was up 2 million tonnes at 116 million tonnes.

Industry participants surveyed by Fastmarkets Agricensus before the release expected that the report would show a 1 million tonne cut in Argentine production and a 1.5 million tonnes increase in Brazilian output.

US corn production is estimated at 15 billion bushels (383 million tonnes), unchanged from the March figure.

The projections for the area planted and area harvested were also left unchanged at 93.4 million acres and 85.4 million acres respectively.

EU grain exports to increase by 14% in 2021-2022 to 49 million tonnes

EU grain exports could rise by 14% this year to 49 million tonnes, including an additional 5.6 million tonnes of soft wheat, according to the latest forecast published by the European Commission.

In its spring Short-Term Outlook for EU Agricultural markets, the EC’s department for agriculture and rural development said total 2021-2022 EU cereals production was projected to reach 293.3 million tonnes, a 4.3% increase year-on-year.

“Thanks to a substantial increase in EU cereal production in 2021 and ample availability, EU exports of cereals in 2021-2022, which were already on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are forecast to increase by 14% to 48.9 million tonnes,” the report said.

EU grain imports were meanwhile expected to shrink as a result of the war and resulting curtailment of exports from Ukraine and Russia.

These are now forecast at 18.9 million tonnes, down 10% compared with 2020-2021.

Ukraine is the main source of imported corn for the EU, (6.5 million tonnes in 2020-2021) and a key supplier of wheat.

Looking ahead to 2022-2023, the EC said it expected sowing areas to be above the current year, with winter wheat and winter barley expected to cover 20.7 million hectares and 4.8 million hectares respectively, both up 1% on 2021-2022.

The area under corn production was also expected to increase due to the temporary relaxation of ‘greening of land’ rules following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and record-high prices, although no figure was given for this.

Keep up to date with the corn market and trends shaping the agricultural landscape, visit our dedicated corn market news page.

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Ukraine traders call for wheat exports to restart amid high stocks

The Ukrainian Grain Association has appealed to the country’s agriculture and economy ministries to end a license system introduced after the Russian invasion in late February that has effectively stopped wheat exports from the country, arguing that Ukraine has ample stocks of wheat to meet its needs.

In a statement Tuesday 5 April, the association said Ukraine had “surplus transitional stocks from last year’s harvest and grain exports are hampered by blocking Ukrainian seaports,” UGA said.

“Revoking the export license will simplify the mechanism of wheat exports and free up storage capacity for the new crop.”

In an official decree dated March 5, the Ukrainian government banned the export of basic products, including sunflower oil and barley, and restricted grain exports after the invasion began February 24, 2022.

The export of wheat was limited by government-issued licenses, which trade sources said were difficult to obtain and therefore made wheat exports almost impossible.

Both Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat to global market, and the restriction in supplies from the region have led to concerns about food security particularly in African and Middle Eastern nations.

However, while the trade has found imaginative ways to move grains to potential export markets, there remain significant obstacles to bulk exports with all Ukrainian deep water ports effectively shut down.

Brazil to harvest 10 million tonnes of wheat; export 3.5 million tonnes

Brazil’s wheat production and exports are expected to hit a record high volume amid lower supply availability in the international market intensified by the conflict in Ukraine, stimulating the country’s wheat producers to invest in the crop also due to the current increase in prices, both in domestic and foreign markets.

The country’s planted area is expected to reach 3.4 million hectares, 20.6% up from the previous year, while production is forecast at 10 million tonnes, consultancy StoneX said on Thursday 7 April.

In early April, the country’s food agency Conab forecast a 7.9 million tonnes production estimate, up from last year’s 7.6 million tonnes, while the planted area was forecast at 2.7 million tonnes.

Exports are expected at 3.5 million tonnes, also a record.

In the first quarter of the year, Brazil’s exports reached 2.1 million tonnes, versus 490,658 tonnes in the same period in 2021, Brazil’s grain exporters’ association Anec showed on Tuesday.

“It is important to highlight that in face of a favorable exchange rate and competitive prices, Brazil has become a potential exporter of wheat, something new for the country,” said StoneX’s risk management consultant, Jonathan Pinheiro.

Indian wheat shipments to Indonesia waylaid by certification snag

Wheat exports from India to Indonesia have been suspended temporarily after essential food safety test laboratory licenses have lapsed, trade sources have told Fastmarkets Agricensus Friday 8 April.

The expiration of the licenses is likely to dent a recent export surge for Indian wheat, just weeks after the country’s prime minister urged traders to seize the opportunity that fighting in the Black Sea has lent to alternative wheat exporters.

However, Indonesia had paused imports of wheat coming from India after the licenses for food safety testing laboratories in India failed to be renewed on time, resulting in the labs losing their accreditation status.

The suspension includes not only wheat, but other agricultural products – although no exhaustive list was available.

According to reports from local news outlets in India, government officials from both India and Indonesia have been in discussion since the suspension was imposed to resolve the issue, with one official expressing hope that shipments will be allowed to resume in the coming days.

However, trade sources also told Fastmarkets Agricensus that the situation could take up to 30 days to resolve.

As such, some buyers have also put their buying on hold, preferring to wait to commit to further purchases until a clearer timeline is established.

“I bought some volume for April-June… but now I’ve stopped [due to this issue]. The seller said it will be resolved in 30 days, but who knows so I don’t want to take more exposure from India until things are clearer,” an Indonesia-based buyer told Fastmarkets Agricensus.

Indian wheat has been sought after by importing countries, especially in Asia in recent weeks as an alternative option after wheat supply from the Black Sea region was cut off due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Indian wheat has also priced more competitively against Australian wheat prices, with the latest offers for August feed wheat heard at $330 per tonne FOB India for Indian 11.5% against $357 per tonne FOB East Coast Australia for feed wheat.

For the time being, buyers note that the suspension is unlikely to cause significant disruption to Indonesia’s wheat supply.

However, the issue could pose further challenges if shipments do not resume in two months.

Keep up to date with the wheat prices and trends shaping the agricultural landscape, visit our dedicated wheat market insights page.

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Spring planting was underway in 21 regions under Ukraine’s control, covering a total of 603,000 hectares as of April 1, the Ukraine agriculture ministry said Friday.

This amounts to just under 4.5% of the projected total area for main spring crops, which the ministry estimates at 13.4 million hectares, 3.5 million hectares less than last year.

Ukraine has close to 30 million hectares of agricultural land, but many areas cannot currently be used because they are occupied by Russian forces or because of active fighting in the area.

As a result, the ministry lowered its forecast for the total area that will be planted with spring crops by 20% earlier this week.

How much will actually be harvested is still uncertain, with the Russian invasion still ongoing.

In addition, the ministry has already said the focus this year will be on simpler, easier to grow crops rather than high-margin crops for export.

Read more on Ukraine’s spring and winter planting here
 

Kazakhstan’s government limits wheat, flour export for two months from April 15

The Kazakhstan government has decided to impose wheat and wheat flour export quotas from April 15 to June 1, trade sources said Friday April 1.

The government agreed to impose a limit on wheat exports of 1 million tonnes and on flour at 300,000 tonnes starting from April 15 and up to June 1, while it did not specify how the amount would be spread out over the period.

In addition, exporters are obliged to provide to the state purchasing company (Prodcorporation) with 10% of the exported amount.

Trade sources said the price for the sale of wheat to Prodcorporation was fixed at Tenge 116,000 tonnes, which is around $254 per tonne.

This measure is meant to support the domestic market, and it is expected that Prodcorporation will redirect purchases to cover the needs of local bakeries, flour mills, livestock and poultry farming.

The decision comes as wheat prices have soared in the last month after Russia invaded Ukraine, and global wheat markets have experienced tight supplies as both countries are key suppliers.

The Kazakhstan government is therefore trying to guarantee domestic food security given the high demand for alternative origins.

Algeria’s OAIC buys up to 570,000 wheat, pays $37 per tonne less

Algeria’s state grain importer booked up to 570,000 tonnes of milling wheat for the June 1-30 shipment paying $37 per tonne less compared to the last tender, with traders expecting the bulk of it to be sourced from the Black Sea, trade sources said on Thursday.

The Office Algerien Interprofessional des Cereales (OAIC) has booked up to 570,000 tonnes of milling wheat paying $448 per tonne CFR on average for June shipment.

The traders expect most of the wheat to be sourced from Romania and Bulgaria.

The lineup for the sellers included Viterra (150,000 tonnes), Casillo (120,000 tonnes), Cerealcom Dolj (90,000 tonnes), Cofco, Soufflet and Cam Negoce – all reportedly sold 60,000 tonnes each and Invivo sold 30,000 tonnes.

“Pricing was based on Romania/Bulgaria, happy EU Black Sea originators,” a trader said.

Romanian and Bulgarian origins were in high demand in recent month, as it was the closest origin to make a switch from Ukrainian supplies, and as the price has dropped by around $40 per tonne since the start of the month, the EU Black Sea remains very attractive compared to other European origins.

“Once may Matif will go off the board no one will want to carry anything to new crop,” a trader said regarding the French wheat perspectives.

Earlier this month OAIC bought wheat on March 9 when it picked up 600,000 tonnes of wheat at around $485 per tonne for May shipment.

Keep up to date with the wheat market and trends shaping the agricultural landscape, visit our dedicated wheat market news page.

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