Lisa Gordon, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/lisa-gordon/ Commodity price data, forecasts, insights and events Thu, 09 Mar 2023 20:32:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.altis-dxp.com/?v=6.4.3 https://www.fastmarkets.com/content/themes/fastmarkets/assets/src/images/favicon.png Lisa Gordon, Author at Fastmarkets https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/people/lisa-gordon/ 32 32 Correction to ferrous scrap steel scrap tin can bundles https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/correction-to-ferrous-scrap-steel-scrap-tin-can-bundles/ Thu, 09 Mar 2023 20:32:49 +0000 urn:uuid:55b5908c-137c-46cc-a7c7-0f1ae84ebdf4 Fastmarkets has corrected its price assessment for steel scrap tin can bundles, consumer buying price, delivered Cleveland, which was published incorrectly on Thursday February 9 due to a reporting error.

The post Correction to ferrous scrap steel scrap tin can bundles appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Fastmarkets initially assessed the market for steel scrap tin can bundles, consumer buying price, delivered Cleveland at $420 per gross ton. This has now been corrected to $430 per gross ton.

The specifications for the affected scrap grades are as follows:

MB-STE-0269
Assessment: Steel (tin) can bundles Quality: Steel can scrap compressed to charging box size and weighing not less than 75 pounds per cubic foot. Cans may be baled without removal of paper labels, but free of other non-metallics. May include up to 5-gallon tin coated containers.
Location: Delivered mill, US/Canada, specified city
Unit: USD per gross ton (Canadian cities in Canadian currency/net tons)
Publication: Monthly, typically before the 10th
Notes: ISRI Code: 213

For more information, or to provide feedback on this correction notice, or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to this price, please contact Lisa Gordon by email at: pricing@fastmarkets.com. Please add the subject heading ‘FAO Lisa Gordon, re: steel scrap tin can bundles.’

To see all Fastmarkets’ pricing methodology and specification documents go to: https://www.fastmarkets.com/about-us/methodology.

The post Correction to ferrous scrap steel scrap tin can bundles appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Supply concerns, strong demand buoying US ferrous scrap market https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/supply-concerns-buoying-us-ferrous-scrap/ Wed, 01 Mar 2023 17:10:37 +0000 urn:uuid:74d67c93-f58b-4364-873e-0fc112c8b315 Sentiment in the US domestic ferrous scrap market has continued to improve ahead of the March trade, with sellers marveling at the prospect of an unexpected fourth consecutive monthly increase while also lamenting that they are short on inventory to sell

The post Supply concerns, strong demand buoying US ferrous scrap market appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
“People who had scrap inventory cashed out in February and don’t have much now. People thought February was the peak,” an Ohio seller said.

A Detroit seller shared a similar story.

“We are still shipping February and hear other people are short big time for February [shipments]. We were unsure where March was going, and it went up so good from December to February, we cashed in,” that seller said, adding that he has heard that shred will be up $25 per gross ton and prime up $50 per gross ton in March.

A large national seller said he expects the shred and prime scrap markets to go up by $20-30 per ton and possibly $40-50 per ton or even more.

“This is going to be an auction, with every mill competing against each other this month,” the national seller said.

Numerous sources said that mills are just as hungry for shredded scrap as for prime grades.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the No1 busheling, consumer buying price, delivered mill Detroit rose to $440 per gross ton in February, up from $330 per ton in November; meanwhile, shredded scrap was assessed at $420 per gross ton this month, up from $350 per ton in November.

Also fueling the pre-trade price frenzy are the frequent increase announcements for on hot-rolled coil. Hot band prices have risen by more than $300 per short ton since November, and mills are seeking even higher ground, most recently targeting a base price of $1,000 per short ton.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US Midwest was calculated at $48.42 per hundredweight ($968.40 per short ton) on Thursday February 23, up from $32 cwt ($640 per short ton) on November 10.

Market chatter is already circulating that more price increases are imminent.

This is a double-whammy of supply and demand. Right now the [scrap] supply is not there and demand [for finished steel] is there

“This is a double-whammy of supply and demand. Right now the [scrap] supply is not there and demand [for finished steel] is there,” the national seller said of what is motivating the price increases on finished flat-rolled steel.

Mills have been raising their steel prices quickly to get ahead of the looming scrap increases, according to numerous sources.

After the February trade, there was a sense that March would be sideways after three months of rising prices. At the same time, there were concerns about the market impact of two earthquakes in Turkey — the United States’ largest importing region — early this month.

It has since become apparent, however, that Turkey needs a lot of scrap to support its rebuilding efforts. As of February 22, the running tally for global cargoes booked by the region was estimated at 22 for this month — two more than initially expected, and three of which are confirmed from the US.

The latest sale booked off the US East Coast contained heavy melting scrap 1&2 (85:15) at $455 per tonne and shredded scrap at $470 per tonne. The price for the HMS portion of the cargo is broadly equivalent to $452 per tonne CFR for an 80:20 mix of the grade, meaning the HMS and shredded scrap prices are up approximately $30 per tonne and $26 per tonne respectively compared with cargoes booked at the start of February.

One broker indicated that they are already working to line up commitments with mills ahead of the March trade, adding that they did not believe the market’s opening would drag out because mills need material.

The post Supply concerns, strong demand buoying US ferrous scrap market appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
US ferrous scrap market expected to remain stout on strong mill demand https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ferrous-scrap-market-expected-to-remain-stout-on-strong-mill-demand/ Tue, 14 Feb 2023 10:29:09 +0000 urn:uuid:f31e35e9-3672-43c8-becc-13fd00b2bda6 The US Midwest ferrous scrap market extended its upward momentum, rising in February for the first time since 2010 on strong export, good order books and low scrap inventories

The post US ferrous scrap market expected to remain stout on strong mill demand appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
With the next trade less than three weeks away, sources expect the momentum to carry into March.

“No mills were able to get long on scrap, their orders books are strong and inventories of scrap are down, so I see March no worse than February. It feels like a strong sideways,” said a seller into the Detroit and Indiana mills.

A Midwest broker agreed. “The market has support and there is a repeat performance ahead for March. There is pretty good strength and demand is pretty good. March is going to be better. For the time being, no volatility moves are on the horizon either,” the Midwest broker said, adding he thinks the moves will be up and down $20 per gross ton in the foreseeable future.

A third Midwest source said while shred may be sideways, he sees prime moving higher in March because mills are enjoying rapidly rising selling prices and won’t risk losing the prime tons.

It is unusual that February saw higher prices. The last time No1 busheling, delivered Midwest mill, increased in a February was in 2010, when it rose to $405.72 per ton from $391.14 per ton in January 2010, according to Fastmarkets records.

The Chicago and Indiana markets paid up $30 per ton on No1 Busheling and shredded scrap on trend, while Detroit entered up on prime $20 per ton.

With prices from the trade settled in publications, sellers who held out are seeking to outperform the monthly settlement prices.

Sellers do have leverage.

The US shipped an estimated 18 cargoes off the East Coast to Turkey in January, which contributed to the tightness in scrap availability. About 200,000 tonnes of material from these 18 cargoes could have included shredded scrap. The breakouts of each cargo — which include heavy melt, shredded and bonus grade material — are not always reported.

Shredded scrap has been tight, but sources say the latest increases on feedstock being paid by the shredders should begin to loosen availability and motivate auto wreckers and dealers to sell more tonnage.

A snap of snowy and icy subzero weather worked to disrupt scrap flows for about a week in early February.

Export is the wild card after March. If Turkey remains out of the market, US mills have less competition from overseas mills so supply will increase. However, one source suggested that India may become more active and absorb material that Turkey may not need.

At the same time, US mills could seek to limit domestic prices by importing scrap from Europe, if Turkey remains out of the picture in the aftermath of the earthquakes on February 6.

Even if export falls apart, dynamics are still in place for a strong March because flows are still substantially off and mills barely covered, according to numerous sources.

“Scrap pipelines got skinny, and I see March more up than down,” a mill buyer said.

Hot-rolled coil prices continued to increase — up nearly $100 per short ton in the last 30 days — and mills are sold out on spot orders through March and May depending on the mill, according to scrap sources.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US Midwest was calculated at $41.80 per hundredweight ($836 per short ton) on Thursday February 9, up 14.30% from $36.57 per cwt ($731.40 per ton) on January 9.

Fastmarkets’ steel scrap No1 busheling index, delivered Midwest mill was calculated at $475.25 per gross ton on Friday February 10, up 5.83% from $449.06 per ton in January.

Fastmarkets calculated the steel scrap shredded, index, delivered Midwest mill at $456.09 per ton on Friday, up 6.42% from $428.58 per ton in January, and the steel scrap No1 heavy melt, index, delivered Midwest mill at $362.60 per ton, up 3.82% from $349.27 per ton in January.

The post US ferrous scrap market expected to remain stout on strong mill demand appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Barge disruption looms on Mississippi, Illinois rivers in 120-day closure https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/barge-scrap-disruption-mississippi-illinois-rivers/ Fri, 03 Feb 2023 15:01:13 +0000 urn:uuid:d1ee7610-318b-4cf1-9107-685a262d3980 A 120-day closure of four Illinois dams scheduled for 2023 will disrupt barge shipments and have potentially both negative and positive impacts on scrap and finished steel products from Canada to Texas

The post Barge disruption looms on Mississippi, Illinois rivers in 120-day closure appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Brandon Road, Dresden Island, Marseilles and Starved Rock lock and dams are closing from June 1 to September 30 for necessary maintenance.

The locks connect Lake Michigan with the Mississippi River and will choke off anything that needs to ultimately move between the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers.

“We are already planning for it,” a southern metal recycler said, adding that it will rely on rail shipments during the closures.

The Mississippi River is becoming a perennial challenge. In 2022, river traffic was halted by record low water, with one source indicating 1,600 barges were stuck.

The decision to quit shipping scrap metal and steel products by barge may actually start in May because barge shippers cannot afford to have a barge of metal trapped on the river for four months and it must be well on its way before June 1, the southern recycler said.

A source on the Mississippi River said that it will be even earlier. “Most of the barge lines don’t want their barges going North into Chicago after April and they want all their barges off the Illinois River by the end of May before the river closes.”

Large steel producers are likely to redirect their private fleet of cars to scrap dealers in Chicago and import more primes for its southern mills from places like Mexico to compensate for northern tons being choked off, an Ohio Valley recycling source said.

Shipping by rail, which averages 80 gross tons per car, instead of river barges, which average 1,200-1,500 gross tons per car, will place more stress on rail capacity.

Scrap sellers who do not have rail access may be forced to sell at a discount because they will be landlocked without rail options, according to a Midwest recycler.

In 2022, Brandon Road lock was closed for just 20 days and there was concern that selling opportunities would be diminished, with some scrap trapped and unable to ship out of the region.

In Chicago, the impact of the 2022 closure remains hazy because the prime scrap market — which sends plenty of No1 busheling from Chicago to Arkansas and Alabama — was in a down cycle for most of the year. Fastmarkets’ assessment of the steel scrap No1 busheling, consumer buying price, delivered mill Chicago, fell every month from April through November.

During the pending 2023 closure, some ferrous scrap tons stuck in Chicago, for instance, could face lower selling prices while competition for imported primes from Mexico could raise these prices.

All commodities that rely on the waterways are going to be impacted, according to a finished steel buyer. The steel buyer receives material from Texas into the Midwest by water and will have to begin planning for the disruption, he added.

The reopening of the locks will be just in time for grain season which is known to be a period where barges are in short supply and rental costs are high.

The post Barge disruption looms on Mississippi, Illinois rivers in 120-day closure appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
No global scrap shortage looming as mills transition to EAF, CMC says https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/no-global-scrap-shortage-looming-cmc-says/ Mon, 23 Jan 2023 13:25:01 +0000 urn:uuid:a8e8d287-4618-4231-b8fe-7d4537182ff3 There is no global scrap shortage looming, the top executive at Commercial Metals Co (CMC) told a packed room at Fastmarkets’ Scrap & Steel North America 2023 event in Dallas, adding that while there is no decarbonization blueprint for the steel industry to follow, the shift to electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel production is key to meeting “green” targets

The post No global scrap shortage looming as mills transition to EAF, CMC says appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
As for speculation that a scrap shortage is looming while the world transitions away from blast furnaces and toward EAFs, Barbara Smith, CMC’s chairman of the board, president and chief executive officer, said no such shortfall is expected, calling such predictions “rumors” and “scare tactics.”

“Our research indicates that the scrap reservoir will be more than sufficient to meet this critical and long-term need. There will be enough scrap to go around as the world continues to transition to EAF production,” she said on Wednesday January 18.

Smith added that the US currently exports 20 million tons per year, which illustrates that there is plenty of material.

Growing economies such as China and India will help the scrap reservoir to “expand exponentially” as they become more industrialized, she added.

The long-term trend is not just for more scrap but also cleaner scrap, Smith pointed out.

The demand for high-quality scrap has never been greater, and the need for innovating new ways to recover value from scrap material has never been more compelling

“The demand for high-quality scrap has never been greater, and the need for innovating new ways to recover value from scrap material has never been more compelling,” she said.

A significant effort is being made to pull residuals out of scrap during processing, and more needs to be done.

“We must innovate these and other technologies to ensure we are equipped for that future,” she said, noting that, compared with historical norms, more scrap is already being recovered in the recycling process due to new technology.

And when more advanced technology becomes available, there is also a future for byproducts of metal recycling that are now landfilled. For instance, shredder fluff (automotive shredder residue) will eventually become converted to fuel and skip the landfill altogether, Smith predicted.

Going green

The race is on to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but — as Fastmarkets has previously reported — there is no global standard in place to support the transition to low-emission steel.

“There’s not a clear set of solutions and technology currently available to solve the net-zero challenge, but from my perspective we do know that scrap is a big part of the solution,” Smith said.

Still, the shift to electric-arc furnaces is critical, Smith argued.

“The investments companies make just [to] sustain traditional steelmaking would be better used to shift their production to electric-arc furnaces — and do it quickly, because the difference between their procedures and processes and their short-term impact and long-term economic and environmental viability is significant,” Smith said.

The importance of companies considering their environmental impact and environmental stewardship cannot be overlooked, Smith said.

EAF steelmaking produces 75% less carbon dioxide than traditional steelmaking, she noted, adding that the US is already way ahead of the curve in terms of low-emissions steelmaking.

EAFs account for 75% of US steel capacity, versus 46% in the European Union and 40% in Canada, putting the US “well ahead of the global pack,” she said. Roughly 10% of steel in China is produced via EAF, but that figure is expected to hit 20% by 2030, Smith said.

Steelmaking in the US is less carbon-intensive than in other countries and regions, including Turkey (by 50%), China (by 65%) and Europe (by 37%), she said.

Globally, blast furnace steelmaking accounts for 75% of production.

One challenge for the transition to EAF capacity is that it requires a smaller workforce than blast furnace steelmaking.

This is “among the biggest challenges… As an industry, we can’t leave them behind as we leave behind traditional steelmaking,” she said.

Still, there is potential for job creation related to the need for more workers to recycle more scrap, and this will help to meet that void as traditional steelmaking comes offline, Smith said.

To keep up with the green steel discussion, visit our green steel spotlight page. Learn more.

The post No global scrap shortage looming as mills transition to EAF, CMC says appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Shredders raise scale prices; mills making quiet deals on all scrap grades https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/shredders-raise-scale-prices-mills-making-quiet-deals-on-all-scrap-grades/ Thu, 22 Dec 2022 11:48:10 +0000 urn:uuid:0f2400bd-80eb-4ce6-80fd-49f26a5f69a0 An abundance of quietly transacted higher-priced deals on ferrous scrap and a recovery in hot-rolled coil prices have been fueling expectations of a strong kick-off to the year in the January 2023 trade

The post Shredders raise scale prices; mills making quiet deals on all scrap grades appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Mills clearly did not cover their December needs in the monthly trade and are now pounding the pavement trying to secure enough material to ride through the rest of the year, sources told Fastmarkets.

One national scrap seller said that mills are paying up $30-50 per gross ton to get quick shipments of scrap in the Midwest and southern regions.

In the Ohio Valley, a scrap seller said everyone who is willing to sell early is getting sweetheart deals.

“The mills are basically paying what they think January will be to get scrap now,” the Ohio Valley source said.

A southwest recycler said a mill told him to name his price if he can ship fast.

“He [then] offered $25 per ton above the December price. Scrap is not coming in, and the weather and holidays do not help,” the southwest source added.

A shredder selling into the Chicago market said his suppliers, which include auto wreckers, are done for the year.

“This has been a tough month. No one [suppliers of infeed] wants to sell me anything. There is a recognition that the bottom of the hot-rolled coil market has come and gone, and there is more upward momentum for ferrous just weeks away,” that shredder said.

So while some sellers have been holding out, some large scrapyards are empty and running on less than a week of supply in the yard, and other yards are covered in snow.

A South Dakota recycler has inventory, but it is buried under a couple feet of snow and roads are impassable, the southwest recycler said.

“It can go up, down or sideways. It makes no difference now [because of the snow],” the southwest recycler said.

Hot-rolled coil prices are in recovery mode, and that trend is expected to continue in January because mills have good order books.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at $35.69 per hundredweight ($713.80 per short ton) on Friday December 16, up 4.97% from $34 per cwt a week earlier.

Shredding operations continue to lift buying prices to attract flows in all regions.

Fastmarkets assessed the price for steel scrap shredder feed, fob Midwest at $133.82 per gross ton on Monday December 19, up 6.89% from $125.19 per ton the week prior.

Fastmarkets assessed price of steel scrap shredder feed, fob Ohio Valley $159.26 per gross ton, up 3.56% from $153.78 per gross ton on December 12.

Fastmarkets’ assessment for steel scrap shredder feed, fob Southeast was $132.87 per gross ton, up 1.55% from $130.84 per gross ton on December 12.

What’s next for the ferrous supply chain and scrap and steel prices? Join leading industry experts and make new connections in Dallas at Scrap & Steel North America on January 17-19. 
Register today

The post Shredders raise scale prices; mills making quiet deals on all scrap grades appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Good finish to ’22 fuels US ferrous scrap market’s belief that upside remains https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/good-finish-to-22-fuels-us-ferrous-scrap-markets-belief-that-upside-remains/ Tue, 13 Dec 2022 14:57:19 +0000 urn:uuid:82bd0dcc-f955-4ae8-ac6e-93a21fb66f76 The US Midwest ferrous scrap market rebounded in December, and nothing appears to be standing in the way of more upside in January

The post Good finish to ’22 fuels US ferrous scrap market’s belief that upside remains appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Mills have decent orders to fill starting in the new year and they came up short in covering their needs during the December buy, which is the perfect layup for higher January prices, according to sources.

“Everyone knows January will be up, so it was a thinly traded trade, and there is more upside, as mills didn’t cover,” a seller into Indiana said.

A second seller into Indiana said mills “did not cover on shredded requirements and will have to buy cut grades to cover the shortage. The mills had to raise the market in December, which they didn’t expect.”

Said a Midwest seller on December 9, after the market had settled: “The mills are all calling me three times a day and begging for scrap. They are all scared. There are some mills that are quite desperate.”

The problem with agreeing to ship extra December tons is that there is not enough time and too much risk. If a recycler agrees to ship and cannot fill the requirement, he will risk having to pay up in January to complete the December order.

In the December trade, prices for cut grades and shredded scrap improved by $20 per gross ton, and the price for No1 busheling improved by $30 per gross ton in most regions. It was the first scrap price increase in the Midwest since March or April, depending on the grade.

In Alabama and Arkansas-Tennessee, shredded increased by $30 per gross ton. Shredded scrap and plate and structural scrap are both in short supply.

Ferrous scrap prices also showed signs of a return to normalcy, with Midwest mills paying $10 per gross ton more for prime scrap than shredded scrap.

Buyers and sellers seem eager for busheling to resume selling for a premium over shredded scrap. Shredded has been selling for more than prime in many cases, and this has become a nuisance at mill meltshops.

“It has caused headaches in the meltshops because people are hiding busheling in the shredded scrap and hiding plate and structural in the busheling. It is time to get prime back on top,” a prime scrap seller into the Chicago area said.

A mill buyer expects prime to outperform shredded in January. “Either shred will decrease or prime will jump over shred, which seems more likely,” the mill buyer said.

Said a seller into Cleveland on the increases: “It was the perfect move for December and setting it up for a similar move in January.”

Some sellers are hoping for a repeat of December, but a second mill buyer said talk of prices up $60 per gross ton for December and January combined is “overhyping.” This buyer added that mills are willing to share but are not prepared to give the entire price increase on hot-rolled coil away to dealers.

HRC prices have rebounded on the suggested $60-per-gross-ton increase, and scrap sources indicated that another increase will soon be announced.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at $34.00 per hundredweight ($680.00 per short ton) on Friday, December 9, up from $32.38 per cwt ($647.60 per short ton) on Tuesday, November 8

In November, it became obvious the market had bottomed. Shrinking raw material inventories, a robust export market in volume and selling prices, and mill price increase announcements on HRC all worked to spur the rebound.

Fastmarkets’ steel scrap No1 busheling, index, delivered Midwest mill was calculated at $389.61 per gross ton on Monday, December 12, up by 8.31% from $359.72 per gross ton in November.

The steel scrap shredded, index, delivered Midwest mill was calculated at $393.96 per gross ton, up by 5.91% from $371.96 per gross ton in November, and the steel scrap No1 heavy melt, index, delivered Midwest mill settled at $307.96 per gross ton, up 7.35 % from $286.88 per gross ton in November.

Shredders quickly responded, raising shredder feed prices in all regions.

Fastmarkets assessed the price of steel scrap shredder feed, fob Midwest at $125.19 per gross ton on Monday, December 12, up by 9.25% from $114.59 per gross ton the week prior.

Fastmarkets assessed the price of steel scrap shredder feed, fob Ohio Valley at $153.78 per gross ton, up by 7.58% from $142.95 per gross ton on December 12.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel scrap shredder feed, fob Southeast was $130.84 per gross ton, up by 7.09% from $122.18 per gross ton on December 12.

What’s next for steel scrap prices? Join leading scrap industry experts and make new connections across the supply chain in Dallas at Scrap & Steel North America on January 17-19. Register today.

The post Good finish to ’22 fuels US ferrous scrap market’s belief that upside remains appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
US ferrous scrap market regions slowly taking shape https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ferrous-scrap-market-regions-slowly-taking-shape/ Wed, 07 Dec 2022 14:12:29 +0000 urn:uuid:aca17dd9-d541-472a-885e-f202754385f0 The US domestic ferrous scrap trade has kicked off with higher offers across the board, but market participants indicated that negotiations have turned rocky in some regions, with some sellers holding out for bigger increases

The post US ferrous scrap market regions slowly taking shape appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
In the Midwest, some sellers into Chicago, Cincinnati and Detroit have embraced producers’ offers to buy No1 busheling at a $30 per gross ton increase, and shredded scrap, plate and structural scrap and machine shop turnings at a $20 per ton increase compared with November.

At the same time, other Midwest sellers are holding out for higher offers or are willing to hold out for January, which they expect will be up another $20-30 per ton.

“I am not too excited about being offered up $20 per ton and $30 per ton when I hear better deals are being cut. The sentiment has changed. I am not excited to sell because I think there is another $20 per ton and $30 per ton [increase] in January, which is a reason to hold out,” a seller into Cincinnati and Indiana mills said.

In Alabama and Arkansas-Tennessee, mills entered the market with offers to the Midwest, which included a $20 per ton increase on shredded scrap. Shredded sales quickly increased to up $30 per ton, with sellers reporting that mills are competing with each other for material. Domestic mills also have to compete with a hot export market for available tons.

Some Midwest sellers are willing to accept the higher prices because they don’t have the transportation infrastructure to wait to ship extra tons in January. Another seller into Detroit said he is willing to ship material on concerns that too much scrap will come into the market in January.

The Philadelphia market followed Detroit’s trend and settled up $20 per ton on cut grades and shredded scrap and up $30 per ton on prime grades on Wednesday December 7.

“December is always very thinly traded,” a seller into the Philadelphia region said. “It’s been a boring month and that’s kind of nice,” he added, following the turbulence in prior months.

Local mills in the Philadelphia region were allegedly struggling to fulfil their inventory requirements locally this month, so securing a $20-30 per ton increase on November’s pricing was fairly swift, one seller said.

“Export [market] is strong and I don’t see it showing any weakness. Mills may be paying $20-30 per ton more in January. Primes may even hit up $40 per ton,” the seller said.

Indeed, a strong uptick in deep-sea ferrous export prices has been a boon for domestic sellers with export opportunities, who are broadly capitalizing on the $20 per ton increase on cut grades and shredded scrap and the $30 per ton rise on prime grades in December versus November.

Rising exports are influencing price trends in other markets with coastal proximity, fueling some sellers’ beliefs that markets in the Southeast will have better-than-anticipated increases over the period.

In Houston, regional mills had been angling for a sideways market this month, but remote sales have started to trickle in at a $20 per ton increase on cuts and shredded for some. However, the market has not fully formed and this may force local mills to compete by raising offers. Mills remained steadfast on Wednesday, continuing to fight for a second consecutive month of sideways prices.

Sales in the Carolinas are gaining traction at up $20 per ton on cut grades and shredded scrap and up $30 per ton on prime grades in line with Detroit’s initial trend, with participants expecting that the market will soon settle on that basis.

“Some brokers think the market should have been higher due to exports, but December is a ‘weird’ month with outages and it’s usually quiet so I felt blessed to just get up $20-30 per ton. But there is more [upside] to come in January,” a Carolinas seller said.

In Cleveland, ferrous scrap is transacting at up $30 per ton for prime grades and up $20 per ton for cut grades and shredded scrap. The increase comes despite limited demand in the region. Two mills in the Cleveland market had unplanned outages or other downtimes and adjusted their buying programs accordingly.

The Pittsburgh market has been slow to start. Buyers and sellers have suggested that scrap will go up $30 per ton on prime grades and up $20 per ton on cut grade and shredded scrap, but sources said the actual buying and selling has yet to begin.

The slow start has created some skeptics. “If [the increases] were so easy, it would have happened by now,” one seller into the market said.

“I see a lot more demand, but I don’t see any more scrap,” the seller said, adding that consumers may need to raise prices, particularly for cut grades and shredded scrap, to attract the tons they need. Multiple sources told Fastmarkets that demand in Pittsburgh is higher month on month, due to a significantly larger purchase from one mill in the region.

Another market source also said that disagreements around prices for plate and structural scrap “could be a part of the hold up.”

Not all participants were convinced the slow start was related to prices. “At this point, it’s not going to be any less than up $20 per ton and $30 per ton,” another seller into the market said, “but I’d be surprised if it were more than that as well.”

Amy Hinton in Pittsburgh and Arthur Robert in Boston contributed to this report.

The post US ferrous scrap market regions slowly taking shape appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
December US ferrous scrap market facing dealer resistance https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/december-us-ferrous-scrap-market-facing-dealer-resistance/ Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:37:00 +0000 urn:uuid:6b8916fb-a41f-4e49-a8c8-adeaef1ccb7d The domestic US ferrous scrap market has been slow to develop, with resilient sellers holding out for better offers

The post December US ferrous scrap market facing dealer resistance appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
“This isn’t Friday’s [December 2] scrap market any longer. The sentiment has changed since Friday and I don’t think cuts and shredded can go sideways now. And if shredded goes up, it will push prime up further,” a Midwest broker said on Monday December 5.

Optimism is stronger than it was on December 1, when market chatter suggested that cuts and shredded scrap could move sideways and prime scrap could move up $20 per gross ton.

“The longer the wait, the more expensive it becomes because demand has improved for the first quarter [of 2023],” the Midwest broker added, noting he thinks the market should be up $20 per ton on cuts and shredded grades and $40 per ton on prime grades.

Others expect that the market could increase by $10 per ton on secondary scrap and by $30 per ton on prime scrap.

In Detroit, cuts and shredded scrap have not increased since March and No1 busheling has not increased since April.

A seller into the Indiana and Chicago mills said time is ticking and sellers will soon be content to hold out for January. “Dealers are pushing for higher [prices for] cuts and shredded and that is the hold up. There will only be two weeks to ship with holidays approaching and many are closing the week of [December 19] for the year,” the seller said.

Fueling market participants’ optimism is a recent export sale to Turkey for shredded scrap at $380 per tonne delivered on December 1, which was a $15 per tonne increase from the prior sale.

There have been an estimated nine cargoes booked to Turkey in November, which represents a large volume of at least 270,000 tonnes committed to Turkey.

One Ontario source said cut grades are quietly being sold at higher prices and that shredded scrap has dried up in his area and is like “crumbs on the ground.”

One steel producer has been shopping for remote packages of busheling and paying higher prices for a week, according to a competing mill.

Sources say the market is likely to break on Tuesday December 6.

In the meantime, shredder feed prices fell in two regions and increased in the Ohio Valley on Monday.

Fastmarkets assessed the steel scrap shredder feed, fob Midwest at $114.59 per ton on December 5, down 0.69% from $115.39 per ton the week prior.

Fastmarkets assessed price of steel scrap shredder feed, fob Ohio Valley was $142.95 per gross ton on Monday, up 1.64% from $140.65 per gross ton on November 28.

Fastmarkets’ assessment for steel scrap shredder feed, fob Southeast was $122.18 per gross ton on December 5, down 0.83% from $123.20 per gross ton on November 28.

The post December US ferrous scrap market facing dealer resistance appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
Can 13 million tons of prime scrap truly support the US HRC market? https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/prime-steel-scrap-us-hot-rolled-coil/ Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:43:41 +0000 urn:uuid:d17928c5-f2d6-40cc-bc92-db5689cead5e Recycled metals including prime steel scrap are becoming the gold standard commodity for producers and consumers of quality, low-carbon metals. Follow the discussion as our Senior expert Lisa Gordon analyses the impact of prime scrap shortages on the US HRC market

The post Can 13 million tons of prime scrap truly support the US HRC market? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>
We asked Lisa Gordon, Senior price reporter at Fastmarkets, about the looming prime steel scrap shortages and the potential impact on the US steel hot-rolled coil market. Watch the interview and read the below summary.

How important is prime steel scrap to US HRC production?

Steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) accounts for more than half of the steel production and shipments in the US — and production of this high-quality flat steel product requires access to an abundance of high-quality steel scrap.

The recipe for HRC is basically prime scrap, shredded scrap, plate and structural scrap. Mills can’t use grades like heavy melt to produce HRC, which explains why so much attention is paid to the looming shortage.

Is there enough prime steel scrap to feed the growing US HRC market?

In the early 1970s, over 40 million(m) tons of prime steel scrap were generated in the US, but since then, supplies have been shrinking each year to around 13m tons today.

The problem is that there are more than 13m tons of HRC capacity coming online or planned to come online in the next three years.

13m tons might seem like a decent amount until you consider that over 13m tons of new HRC capacity will come online over the next three years. The additional capacity will require a minimum of 5.2m tons of prime scrap if only using it at a 40% ratio.

To tackle the prime shortage, some steelmakers have adapted their scrap strategies to incorporate more shred and less prime steel scrap into their production mix. Steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs have managed to shift to a 40% prime to 60% shred production ratio. Cliffs estimate the additional capacity will require an extra 9m tons of prime in the short- to mid-term.

Steelmakers are aware of the shortage and are being proactive to get ahead of the situation. Our Chicago No1 busheling price has been a trusted benchmark for the US prime steel scrap industry, helping mills levy raw material surcharges.

Join Lisa Gordon and other scrap industry experts in January at Scrap & Steel North America 2023. Register today and kick-start 2023 at the only event in the market to fully focus on scrap and the wider steelmaking raw materials.

The post Can 13 million tons of prime scrap truly support the US HRC market? appeared first on Fastmarkets.

]]>